Post-HSNCT, Pre-NSC Thoughts. T-8ish Hours

[CabbageHugs]

My last HSNCT has come and gone.  Congratulations to the reasonable favorites in Barrington who overcame the supposedly upsettable format and the beast of Buffalo Grove.  Since PACE NSC is only hours away, instead of a full post-season, I want to give my thoughts on some of the top teams at Pace.

Mira Loma
Although Mira Loma A surpassed most expectations at HSNCT, many considered Mira Loma B to be stronger.  Perhaps the discrepancy between schedules caused the difference in outcome, as Mira Loma B had more powers, better bonus conversion, and (surprise!) less (total) negs.  Though a full Mira Loma team would undoubtedly be a contender, I struggle to see Aatreyo and Tanay by themselves making it far, if at all, into the top bracket.  That being said, I would not be surprised if they upset some of the other teams on this list who are full.

Auburn
When asked about Pace favorites, the Pace GOAT, Arya Karthik, responded, "I see Auburn winning if Sinecio is reviewing his cards."  As I have personally witnessed this happen, Auburn will probably do very will.  Though Mr. Morales did lead their team in scoring at HSNCT, his Big Steppers should not be discounted.  Alex Crowell is one of the best and nicest to ever do it.  So capable that he had to play CLEAN under the pseudonym "Towery" at which he racked up more powers than fellow Illinoisan Dwij Bhatt.  In other news, Alex is really good at all of the Fine Arts.

Fremd
Especially for a team with no seniors, Fremd played very well at HSNCT.  They only lost to good teams and even beat some good teams.  With Omkar being such an exceptional litmanities player, I can see them doing well.  However, I do worry that they could struggle to convert tossups to meaningful bonus points.  They only broke 20 ppb twice and were knocked out in a game where they had 10 to 9 bonuses.  

Barrington
Fresh off their 2nd NAQT win in 3 years, Barrington doesn't have anything to prove.  However, I would not be surprised if they grab their first PACE title.  I am skeptical as to whether they are significantly worse off than NAQT as they claim because they were just so dominant at HSNCT.  


Richard Montgomery
While Rachel is undoubtedly a top 3 lit player, this RM is deceptively well-rounded, especially being good at history.  Because of this better coverage, I favor them over Fremd in their prelims matchup.  RM overperformed to most people's expectations (I had them top 10 for HSNCT) but I think they're probably somewhat better at PACE.  If they can pull off a miracle 6-4 run, they have the capability of going really deep in pace.

Kinkaid
It's obvious that Kinkaid has some of the best history and science.  I'm not sure if they can cover everything else consistently enough to beat other top teams consistently, but that doesn't mean they have the capacity to do so on any given packet.

TJ
It's not implausible that we could put two teams in the top bracket.  All of our non-A teams can do damage to top seeded teams.  I'm not sure how much we're in contention for the title, but I see all our teams doing well as a cohort.

Choate
Choate is good at PACE content.  Most people are aware that Joy's real knowledge goes crazy.  Also Nathan Nicholas is a solid history player.

Hunter
Hunter only came a step behind Barrington in points per bonus at HSNCT.  Indicating that they're both elite at history, but also well-rounded  Evan Schleck seemed like an otherworldly being, and if even half of that performance is replicated, Hunter is in serious contention.

Belmont
Even with a mellow performance at HSNCT, it's always been known that Belmont is dangerous at NSC. Cindy has proven that they're different at PACE Lit already.  The question is how much Belmont as a team has improved at covering the rest of the distribution.  At a baseline, they're a top 10-15 team, but I can see them making a break for the title.

DCC
Probably not as good as last year, though definitely better than most expectations were for this rebuild team.  Will Carstens is a standout player and his teammates have shown that when they're on, they can give Catholic Central the support they need to beat other teams, notably Kinkaid and Hoover at HSNCT.  I do suspect they will be somewhat less comfortable at PACE's content.

DCD
Since their notable improvements from last year, especially in non-history categories, DCDS has gone from a elite history team to a elite team team.  Arthur Gayden has expanded to become a strong generalist while Costas and Aeres have continued anchoring history and rmpss respectively.  With Arthur's broadened horizons and the addition of Jiaxu, they have also become very strong at science. I see this team's success crossing over from Atlanta to Chicago.

University Labs
Uni Labs looks really good.  Arjun is a legend at lit and Shreyas' stats look crispy.  They consistently power and their PPB at HSNCT was incredible for a 3 person team.

Maggie Walker
Though they did make a fairly early playoff exit, Maggie Walker A was able to convincingly beat Uni Labs and Homestead in their preliminary matches.  Even though the central Virginian school hasn't been the powerhouse it used to be, Sam McNamee is an elite talent and his teammates are solid contributors.

Winston Churchill
It's scary how respectable yet balanced the power counts are for this team's HSNCT performance.  From my understanding they're better at PACE than NAQT which means I have faith in my DMV brethren.

St. Mark, Hoover, Wayzata, Troy, Johns Creek,
These are all strong teams with fairly well-balanced teams.  I am not familiar enough with their game(s) to accurately assess them.  The order they're listed is how I roughly suspect they fall in strength from NAQT, though I'm sure some will transfer better over to PACE from NAQT than others.

I definitely missed some top teams but hopefully the winner is somewhere here.  I'm going to bed, Best of luck to all teams.