Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Old college threads.
Locked
jdpasspawn
Wakka
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:00 pm

Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by jdpasspawn »

This is the annoucement for the preseason poll for collegiate teams
Please do not post ballots in the thread. Please do not vote for high school teams. You can vote for B teams. Ballots must contain 25 teams. Please email them to me at [email protected] by September 6.
For reference here are the results from the Midseason poll (since there was no postseason one) along with the team’s nationals finishes

1. University of Chicago (Chicago, Ill): (ICT 3rd, ACF Nats 2nd)
2. Yale University (New Haven, Conn.) :(ICT 1st, ACF Nats t-17th)
3. Ohio State University (Columbus, Ohio): (ICT t-5th, ACF Nats t-7th)
4. University of Maryland, College Park (College Park, Md.): (ICT t-5th, ACF Nats 4th)
5. University of Minnesota, Twin Cities (Minneapolis, Minn.): (ICT 4th, ACF Nats 3rd)
6. Michigan State University (East Lansing, Mich.): (ICT 9th, ACF Nats t-5th)
7. University of California, Berkeley (Berkeley, Calif.): (ICT t-7th, ACF Nats t-5th)
8. Columbia University (New York, N.Y.): (ICT 2nd, ACF Nats 1st)
9. Johns Hopkins University (Baltimore, Md.): (ICT DNP, ACF Nats t-20)
10. University of Florida (Gainesville, Fla.): (ICT t-7th, ACF Nats 13th)
11. McGill University (Montreal, Que.): (ICT t-15th, ACF Nats t-7th)
12. University of Virginia (Charlottesville, Va.): (ICT 12th, ACF Nats t-14th)
13. University of Pennsylvania (Philadelphia, Pa.): (ICT t-10th, ACF Nats t-7th)
14. University of Maryland, College Park B (College Park, Md.): (ICT DNP, ACF Nats t-26th)
15. University of California, Berkeley B (Berkeley, Calif.): (ICT t-15th, ACF Nats 11th)
16. University of Chicago B (Chicago, Ill.): (ICT 14th, ACF Nats t-15th)
17 (tied). University of Oxford (Oxford, England): (ICT DNP, ACF Nats t-26th)
17 (tied). Stanford University (Palo Alto, Calif.): (ICT t-21st, ACF Nats 12th)
19. Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.): (ICT 13th, ACF Nats DNP)
20. Washington University in St. Louis: (St. Louis, Mo.): (ICT 19th, ACF Nats 25th)
21. University of Toronto (Toronto, Ont.): (ICT 20th, ACF Nats 23rd)
22. University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign (Champaign, Ill.): (ICT t-15th, ACF t-7th)
23. University of Texas at Austin (Austin, Texas): (ICT t-21st, ACF Nats t-17th)
24. Amherst College (Amherst, Mass.): (ICT t-10th, ACF Nats t-15th)
25 (tied). Duke University (Durham, N.C.): (ICT DNP, ACF Nats DNP)
25 (tied). Harvard University (Cambridge, Mass.): (ICT 25th, ACF Nats t-20th)
25 (tied). University of California, Los Angeles: (Los Angeles, Calif.): (ICT DNP, ACF Nats t-32)

Discussion as well as noting arriving and departing players is encouraged (although for the latter please use the spreadsheet that I will have linked in the post below as well).

EDIT: I made a mistake in my marking in one of the acf nats finishes. Everything else is correct though
Last edited by jdpasspawn on Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jack Lewis
'18 Battle Ground Academy
'24 Middle Tennessee State University
jdpasspawn
Wakka
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by jdpasspawn »

Copying off of Jakob’s excellent idea from last year, I’ve created a spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing which will mark the departing and arriving people from last year as well as the team’s likely composition for this year. If you can fill out those sections for your team that would be greatly appreciated.
Jack Lewis
'18 Battle Ground Academy
'24 Middle Tennessee State University
Bensonfan23
Wakka
Posts: 187
Joined: Wed May 15, 2013 7:50 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Bensonfan23 »

Texas brings back our A team from last year and adds a good number of incoming freshmen and grad students (a few more than there are spots on the spreadsheet, which is mainly why I'm posting this). Texas B also wasn't ranked last year, but I'd argue that they should be considered this year.

Incoming players:
Grad students: Brad McClain (Illinois), Jason Shi (Maryland)
Freshmen: William Golden (Katy Taylor), Sendhil Sridhar (LASA), Ryan Russo (LASA), Raul Passement (Ronald Reagan), Avi Ackermann (Plano West), Rohan Kapileshwari (Atkins Academy, NC)

Likely rosters (at least for the purposes of this poll):
Texas A: Jas Singh, Ryan Humphrey, William Golden, Brad McClain
Texas B: 4 of Ash Seetharaman, Graham Stockton, Raul Passement, Jason Shi, Sendhil Sridhar, Ryan Russo.
Ryan Humphrey
UT Austin (Cell & Developmental PhD Program, 2018-?)
Duke University (Biology and History, Class of 2018)
George Washington High School (Charleston, WV, Class of 2014)
Former PACE Member (2017-2019)
User avatar
naan/steak-holding toll
Auron
Posts: 2515
Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2011 11:53 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by naan/steak-holding toll »

For the purposes of this poll, Columbia A will most likely consist of Gerhardt Hinkle, Noah Chen (formerly of Michigan), Harrison Whitaker (formerly of NYU), and myself. We've got a ton of incoming talent and some strong returning players who will likely form strong D2 and/or B teams - I'll let our other club members speak to that.
Will Alston
Dartmouth College '16
Columbia Business School '21
User avatar
ryanrosenberg
Auron
Posts: 1890
Joined: Thu May 05, 2011 5:48 pm
Location: Palo Alto, California

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by ryanrosenberg »

I'm finished at Northwestern and Adam Silverman has retired.
Ryan Rosenberg
North Carolina '16
ACF
Charbroil
Auron
Posts: 1146
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:52 am
Location: St. Charles, MO

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Charbroil »

I'm returning to WashU for graduate education, so I'll be coming back this year; my A team teammates Vishal Puppala and Rohan Rai will be returning as well. Our fourth player for our A team is still to be determined.
Charles Hang
Francis Howell Central '09
St. Charles Community College '14
Washington University in St. Louis '19, 2x (President, 2017-19)

Owner, Olympia Academic Competition Questions, LLC
Question Writer, National Academic Quiz Tournaments, LLC and National History Bee and Bowl
User avatar
L.H.O.O.Q.
Wakka
Posts: 155
Joined: Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:24 pm
Location: Columbus, OH

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by L.H.O.O.Q. »

Purdue will return all of last year's ICT team (though Patrick expects to graduate after this semester, so he won't be available for Nats season). We have Alex Pijanowski enrolled in the club, but we have yet to see for sure if he'll finally be able to return to quiz bowl this season. If not, his backup will probably be one of our juniors, most likely Tiger Cheng.

Purdue B is almost certainly going to be Ben Dahl, Justin Chen, Anson Woo, and a fourth player. Since we have basically no turnover this year, we expect the number of teams at events to rise, depending on how many we can afford to send to events.
Sarah Benner
Avon HS 2013-17, Purdue 2017-21
Unofficial QB Advisor for Purdue, Ohio State, and the State of Indiana

May refer to herself in the third person.
User avatar
Ciorwrong
Tidus
Posts: 696
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2013 8:24 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Ciorwrong »

It's good to see this is happening. This poll usually does not get a lot of votes despite the overall community interest and hopefully this changes this year.

Is there any reason this poll is due so early? Many schools won't even have had opening meetings by the time the poll is due, so it seems silly to have people guess the lineups of schools they are unfamiliar with. Many schools on the quarter system do not start until late September. Further, the spreadsheet is incomplete and is missing several schools which attended one of ICT or ACF Nats but may not have been in the final top 25.

Regardless, I would be happy to organize a Discord discussion server like the one that existed last year after the poll is released. I found the discussion to be very informative last year.
Harris Bunker
Grosse Pointe North High School '15
Michigan State University '19
UC San Diego Economics 2019 -

at least semi-retired
User avatar
ryanrosenberg
Auron
Posts: 1890
Joined: Thu May 05, 2011 5:48 pm
Location: Palo Alto, California

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by ryanrosenberg »

My ballot. Posting this is intended to spur discussion, not to disrespect any particular team. I underranked your team because I have a secret vendetta against you. Projected rosters have a decent chance of being wrong, especially on teams with lots of changeover.

TIER I - title favorites
1. Chicago A (projected roster: John Lawrence, Jacob Reed, Matthew Lehmann, Adam Fine)
The definite favorites, but some questions linger. Can Adam Fine handle science without his erstwhile partner Stephen Eltinge? How much overlap do JL and JR have in their categories? After leading the A team in scoring at some regular-difficulty tournaments, Matthew Lehmann had a rough ACF Nationals -- can he scale his studying more effectively? Still, if everything clicks for this team, they could be a better version of the 2015-2017 Michigan teams that won two titles and never finished lower than 2nd.

TIER II - other contenders
2. Illinois (projected roster: Auroni Gupta, Mike Etzkorn, Mitch McCullar, Cole Timmerwilke)
Speaking of those Michigan teams, Auroni Gupta is back in school, leading a team of bright young guns. Illinois surprised some at nationals last year, punching well above their mid-season ranking at both ICT and Nats, including a 7th-place finish at the latter. Auroni was a super-generalist at UCSD before becoming an elite low-neg, high-efficiency player at Michigan; it will be interesting to see how he changes when faced with yet a different team setup. If Mike Etzkorn can take a leap into top-10 science player territory, and Mitch McCullar continues to broaden his very keen lit knowledge, it would not be a surprise to see this team in the ACF Nationals final.

3. Maryland (projected roster: Caleb Kendrick, Graham Reid, Jack Lewis, Vishwa Shanmugam)
Maryland loses Weijia Cheng and Justin Hawkins, but replaces them with the two top scorers from their DII-ICT-winning B team. Caleb Kendrick has a chance to renew his rivalry with old foe Itamar Naveh-Benjamin, now at Virginia. Together, Graham and Vishwa give Maryland the strongest science duo in the top 5. Can Jack Lewis and Caleb, both natural generalists, deepen their knowledge in complementary areas?

4. Ohio State (projected roster: Chris Ray, Clark Smith, Enoch Fu, Pranav Padmanabhan)
This team should look much as it has the past couple of years: Chris Ray generalism, Clark deep humanities support, and a general weakness at science. Without qualifying exams to pass or a wedding to plan, though, Chris should have more time on his hands and could get back to 2016 levels, at which point this team might find themselves in an ICT final.

5. Columbia (projected roster: Will Alston, Gerhardt Hinkle, Noah Chen, Harrison Whitaker)
Columbia had a charmed run through nationals season last year, making the ICT final and winning ACF Nationals, the latter bolstered by a surprise return from Kevin Koai. They lose everyone on the Nationals-winning team, however, and would normally be looking at a large rebuild. Would be, that is, were it not for the matriculation of Will Alston at Columbia Business School. A very solid generalist in his last year at Dartmouth, Will has improved a ton since graduation, most recently going toe-to-toe with Jordan Brownstein and Matt Bollinger at the DC-area NASAT mirror. Around him, Columbia has bio/chem player Noah Chen, film/humanities player Harrison Whitaker, and math PhD student Gerhardt Hinkle.

TIER III - dark horses
6. Chicago B (projected roster: Alston Boyd, Tim Morrison, Grant Li, Ben Miller)
This is shaping up to be the strongest team in the storied history of Chicago B, headed by ACF Nationals champion and top thought player Alston Boyd. Grant Li and Ben Miller showed impressive depth up to Nationals level in their freshmen year, and figure to improve more as they prep for a top-bracket run. Where this team's ceiling ultimately ends up, though, may rest in the hands (or cards) of Tim Morrison, who is supposedly attempting to cover this team's large science hole. Already the best math player in quizbowl (as well as an elite film player and good generalist), it's not inconceivable that Tim becomes a solid science player, which, given the near-perpetual weakness of quizbowl at science, could be enough to see podium finishes for Chicago B.

7. Harvard A (projected roster: Jason Golfinos, Thomas Gioia, Luke Minton, Ricky Li)
Harvard was a remarkably young and balanced team last year, with two undergraduate teams finishing in the 20-24 range at ACF Nationals. That will change with the arrival of law student Jason Golfinos, who brings depth in history and RMPSS, as well as enough generalism to have led Cambridge to a top-5 finish at Nationals 2018. Harvard will have some team-building to figure out around Jason, but they have plenty of good young players and time to experiment.

8. Virginia (projected roster: Itamar Naveh-Benjamin, Nick Collins, John Connor, ???)
After playing as a super-generalist with limited support for four years at Mizzou, Itamar Naveh-Benjamin heads east to start medical school at Virginia. There, he'll play with the strongest school teammate he's had, in lit specialist and math PhD student Nick Collins. Nick's deep specialization and high power counts should mesh well with Itamar's generalism. Rounding out the confirmed A team is John "The Terminator" Connor, a new-to-quizbowl player who nonetheless was able to contribute to a solid Virginia A team at Nationals last year, with depth in American history and thought. The fourth spot on Virginia A is still to be determined; if former Chicago fine arts and history player Doug Graebner can be lured out of retirement they would jump a few spots.

9. Berkeley (projected roster: Rahul Keyal, James Malouf, Rohin Devanathan, Michael Coates)
This team doesn't change a ton -- they lose thought/music player Eric Chen but still have plenty of humanities firepower and a capable science player in Rohin. If this team is going to improve on last year's nationals placement, Rahul and James are going to have to keep building depth in fine arts, and lit and history respectively.

10. Stanford A (projected roster: Natan Holtzman, Bryce Hwang, Marianna Zhang, Ethan Strombeck)
Stanford easily won the title of "most up-and-down team" in last year's Nationals prelim rounds, dropping games to NYU and Texas (by almost 300!) but making the top bracket on the strength of a blowout win over eventual champions Columbia (later voted Upset of the Year) and two wins over Virginia. Luckily, they retain everyone from last year's team, led by earth science PhD student Natan Holtzman, med student Bryce Hwang, and psych PhD student Marianna Zhang. They're bolstered by an excellent incoming freshman class (more on them below), including IPNCT champion Ethan Strombeck. If Ethan can help smooth out this team's inconsistencies, they have more than enough depth to make their wins over good teams not seem like upsets anymore.

11. Florida (projected roster: Taylor Harvey, Tracy Mirkin, Jonathen Settle, Alex Shaw)
This Florida team seems like they've been together the past five years -- an impression no doubt bolstered by their charming habit of playing nearly every national side event together. That's not to say they've stagnated, though; Taylor Harvey has become an excellent lit/thought/arts player in the Will Nediger mold (witness his victory over the Jordan Brownstein team at Scattergories), and Tracy Mirkin is a history-based generalist who complements Taylor nicely on arts. In a quizbowl offseason with lots of turnover, this team is experienced and composed, which is a strength in and of itself.

12. Minnesota (projected roster: Shan Kothari, Sam Bailey, Brian Kalathiveetil, Tora Husar)
Coming off of the team's best nationals finishes since 2011, Minnesota loses top science player Geoffrey Chen as well as solid support players Evan Brown and Peter Estall, but retains scale-to-any-difficulty players Shan Kothari (bio, thought) and Sam Bailey (econ, "things Sam Bailey likes"). If one or two of Minnesota B's high school stars can step up and provide support around Shan and Sam, two top-bracket finishes are within reach.

TIER IV - shot at the top bracket
13. Texas (projected roster: Jaskaran Singh, Ryan Humphrey, Brad Maclaine, William Golden)
Last year, Texas was a young but talented team that struggled scaling to nationals difficulty, outside of history specialist Jas Singh and bio PhD student Ryan Humphrey. Now, Jas and Ryan are joined by incoming grad student and former Illinois beliefs player Brad McLain, and incoming high school superstar William Golden. If William can focus his studying to scale up on lit and fine arts, this team will combine a Regs-generalist core with very solid specialist coverage, something rarely seen outside the top bracket.

14. Toronto (projected roster: Rein Otsason, Zhenglin Liu, Chris Sims, Gareth Thorlakson)
It's still unclear which of Toronto's four star freshmen from their fifth-place DII ICT team will be on Toronto A this year, but the core of physics-based generalist Rein Otsason, fine arts specialist Zhenglin Liu, and history player Chris Sims returns from Toronto's 20th-place ICT finish. The projected roster played together at ACF Nationals, finishing 23rd; improvement should come as Gareth continues to scale his history knowledge up to nationals level.

15. Cornell (projected roster: Jonathan Tran, Geoffrey Chen, ???, ???)
How far can two elite specialists take a team? Geoffrey Chen, who was voted the best science player in college quizbowl last year as a dual-enrolled high school senior, is taking his talents to Ithaca to join up with top 5 history player Jonathan Tran. If Cornell can find consistent scoring from their third and fourth players, this team could arrive a year early.

16. Oxford (projected roster: Oliver Clarke et al.)
17. Cambridge (projected roster: Joseph Krol et al.)
I'm not the most up-to-date on the British circuit, but I do know that both Oxford and Cambridge return their best generalists.

18. McGill (projected roster: Derek So [ICT-only], Akhil Garg, Simone Valade, Henry Atkins)
McGill is a tough team to rank, since it looks like humanities generalist Derek So might only be eligible to play NAQT tournaments this year. The combination of Derek and solid science player Akhil Garg is enough to make McGill a tough out at ICT, but they figure to take a sharp drop-off without him.

19. North Carolina (projected roster: John Stathis, Vincent Du, Daniel Cronin, Grey Howard)
North Carolina returns everyone from a nice ACF Nationals run in which they beat Michigan State in the prelims and won the 19-24 bracket. Generalist John Stathis is backed by a solid young core; if they can keep improving around John in his last year of law school they figure to best last year's finish.

20. UCLA (projected roster: Justin French, Wolfram Poh, Anishka Bandara, Marko Jankov)
Boasting four plus science players, UCLA will be a dangerous team to play -- just ask Yale, who lost to them in the prelims of Nationals last year. They're led by Justin French, a capable generalist with particular strengths in lit and fine arts.

TIER V - upset potential
21. WUSTL (projected roster: Charles Hang, Vishal Puppala, Rohan Rai, ???)
Back for his eleventh year at WashU, history-based generalist Charles Hang leads a squad that also contains science player Vishal Puppala and thought player Rohan Rai.

22. Chicago C (projected roster: Halle Friedman, Ian Baram, Edgar Lin, Wonyoung Jang)
Placing any C team, even Chicago C, in the top 25, is a dicey proposition. There are plenty of questions about team composition and members' levels of competitiveness, but compared to the teams below them, Chicago C is a notch above in terms of scaling and nationals experience. Could go up a couple of spots if James Lasker maintains eligibility or Sam Winikow returns.

23. Duke (projected roster: Annabelle Yang, Lucian Li, Jerry Lin, ???)
After a very promising 2018 Nats performance, Duke struggled in 2019, not attending either nationals. If they have a full roster, though, Annabelle Yang and Lucian Li are Nats-level specialists in fine arts and history respectively, and Jerry Lin adds high school generalism to the mix.

24. Georgia Tech (projected roster: Hari Parameswaran, Tejas Santanam, Harrison Zhu, Sohum Shenoy)
The third in a trio of excellent high school generalists this past year with Ethan Strombeck and William Golden, Hari Parameswaran instantly makes Georgia Tech a contender at the D2 and UG levels. A history and fine arts player, he put up 65 PPG for Wright State en route to helping them qualify for ACF Nationals last year a dual-enrollee. Tejas, the oldest player on the projected roster, is just a sophomore, so this team should be a power in the Southeast for a while.

25. Stanford B (projected roster: Hanson Hao, Olivia Lamberti, Andrew Hoagland, Young Fenimore Lee)
The aforementioned incoming Stanford class had a distinctly Illinois flavor this year, with Ethan, Olivia, and Hanson all hailing from the meme state. Together with SoCal's Andrew Hoagland, the Illinois trio should be near the top of DII ICT if they all choose to play.

edit: I was somehow under the mistaken impression that Eric Wolfsberg was a senior last year, instead of a junior. With him back, Delaware should be around #15 as kind of an anti-Cornell (lots of breadth, need to improve on depth).
Last edited by ryanrosenberg on Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
Ryan Rosenberg
North Carolina '16
ACF
User avatar
AGoodMan
Rikku
Posts: 372
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:25 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by AGoodMan »

ryanrosenberg wrote: Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:59 pm 7. Harvard A (projected roster: Jason Golfinos, Thomas Gioia, Luke Minton, Ricky Li)
Harvard was a remarkably young and balanced team last year, with two undergraduate teams finishing in the 20-24 range at ACF Nationals. That will change with the arrival of law student Jason Golfinos, who brings depth in history and RMPSS, as well as enough generalism to have led Cambridge to a top-5 finish at Nationals 2018. Harvard will have some team-building to figure out around Jason, but they have plenty of good young players and time to experiment.
So none of us (even at Harvard) really knows which three players will support Jason on A team, so the following is just all conjecture from me and not an official announcement. However, given that Jason could probably use most help in science and music, I think it would be easy to imagine Kelvin Li and Michael Yue playing with him, at least at Regs/SCT/Nats. If this is the case, then I also envision a literature-focused player joining that fold. Watch out for Ricky Li or Thomas Gioia to be that player.

Having said that, this means Harvard B will be pretty competitive as well, as any mix of the following players could be on it:
- Luke Minton (senior): the lead scorer for Harvard at ICT last year. Has eclectic knowledge base. If this dude actually studies, he could easily end up on the A team, but quiz bowl is probably like his third favorite extracurricular.
- Me (senior): I'm probably most competent on religion/myth, and learning more history and VFA. I'm trying to figure out post-grad plans this semester, so I will probably scale back on involvement besides doing HFT-related stuff.
- Jonchee Kao (grad): Formerly of Berkeley, though I'm not sure what his level of commitment will be.
- Ricky Li (junior) or Thomas Gioia (sophomore): Both strong literature and FA focused players
- Laurence Li (grad): History/literature-focused player.
- Justin Duffy (sophomore): Very strong myth player who has improved massively in science.
- Chris Gilmer-Hill (sophomore): Eclectic knowledge base. He was a crucial piece of the Harvard B team that won the D2 championship at Nats last year.
- Chloe Levine (sophomore): Strong literature-focused player with generalist chops from her Hunter days.
- Kevin Wang (first-year), Music specialist from TJ in the mold of Michael Yue version 2.
- Mazin Omer (first-year), Solid HS player from Ottawa Hills.
Jon Suh
Wheaton Warrenville South High School '16
Harvard '20
User avatar
naan/steak-holding toll
Auron
Posts: 2515
Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2011 11:53 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by naan/steak-holding toll »

I won't be voting in this poll, but I will offer my perspective as someone who is on one of the contending teams this year:

--- Peer Teams - - -

These are teams that I consider in the same general class of strength as us, listed in order of how good I think they are.

Chicago A - Clearly the best team, and even more so on an mACF distribution. I don't know how much there is to say here, other than that this team probably has some relative weaknesses at history (emphasis being on relative, as all four of their players can buzz on the category and Matt is scarily good at it), science (though Jacob is a persistently underrated science player) and NAQT categories.

Maryland - Maryland showed at last year's ICT and Nationals that they were able to scale much better than would have been suggested by their PIANO numbers or their heavy loss to an undermanned Yale at Penn Bowl. This year, they replace Weijia and Justin with Vishwa, who has shown that he can scale on lit and science, and Jack, whose scaling ability is more uncertain. This team will be devastating on regular difficulty and definitely strong at Nationals, but I'm not sure how consistently they'll scale across the distribution.

Illinois - I have a lot of trouble evaluating this team. Auroni is very good and is coming off a CO win where he showed he still retains impressive breadth in his core areas (literature, arts, bio/chem) and generalism ability. What I don't know is how much overlap he has with Mitch and Mike on those areas, how well Mike will scale up at science, how well Cole will do on history, or what they're planning to do for some of the edge categories. I suspect this team will be a much stronger ACF than NAQT team, but can't really say more.

Harvard - I think Jason Golfinos has really been undersold as a generalist over the past few years - his depth really is in history, RMPSS, and areas of lit (particularly theater) but he's very much got some of the baseline "Matt Jackson threat" of buzzing in late in any category and nipping you on late clues. Michael Yue and Kelvin Li will do a lot to cover his weaknesses as well. The problem is that Jason is very non-MJ like in that he's a pretty swingy player, and while Michael and Kevin are incredibly good at narrow areas (music and chemistry), I'm not sure how comprehensive their overall coverage will be, nor about their fourth (probably a lit-focused player). I think this team will have a lot of ability to both "punch up" and drop games when they hit a bad run of bonuses or blank on areas of specialty.

OSU - I suspect Chris has gotten a real boost from editing CO, while Clark has exhibited steady improvement over the past several years. I suspect they're a notch up from last year, where they continued to have punch in the top brackets of both Nationals. That said, I think they're a bit too reliant on their main talent. This team's ceiling probably isn't as high as Harvard, which is why I've put them lower, but otherwise they are similar in their ability to really punch up.

--- Teams We Could Very Conceivably Lose To - - -

These are teams that I think we, or really most of our peer teams (except perhaps Chicago), have a double-digit chance of losing to in a given game. In order:

Virginia
Berkeley
Chicago B
Stanford
Florida
Minnesota
Texas

--- Us! - - -

Columbia - I don't think we really have any particular weaknesses as a team, though we lack double coverage on some areas that I'd really like us to have more backup on. That being said, I'm fairly comfortable as a generalist at the Nationals level (less so at the CO level, and probably relatively better at the regs-regs plus level considering UMD NASAT results) and have benefitted a lot from playing more consistently this summer. Noah and Harrison both have really, really deep specialties and also add a decent amount of "garbage man" ability to buzz on things outside their areas, while Gerhardt's knowledge is wonderfully unpredictable and liable to pop up in any area of the distribution. I won't say too much, but I think we benefit a lot from having three players who are all working at science and being (in my opinion) the best history team; I've also been really pleased with team synergy and bonus collaboration so far. We have a lot of work to do, but I'm fairly confident we can beat anyone in the field and will be doing a lot to cover what remaining holes we have in lit, sciences, and the arts.

If asked for a ranking, I'd put us at number two, behind Chicago and ahead of Maryland. That said, I think we are probably about the same level as Maryland and Illinois on mACF, and about the same level as Chicago on NAQT, given that Harrison and I are both pretty good at NAQT categories and Chicago's strength in arts is mitigated by that format's distribution.
Will Alston
Dartmouth College '16
Columbia Business School '21
aqblsheetsmanager
Lulu
Posts: 32
Joined: Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:52 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by aqblsheetsmanager »

Just curious on what people's thoughts on the new Yale team are, because even though they are losing all of their A team from last year, they do get both Fred and Daniel who are both extremely good players (at HS difficulty, at least)
AQBL Statsmin
Borrowing 100,000 Arrows
Wakka
Posts: 145
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:29 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Borrowing 100,000 Arrows »

Don't sleep on Itamar and Nicky C. Those boys got some serious sauce.
Caleb K.
Maryland '24, Oklahoma '18, Norman North '15
jsingh
Lulu
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:53 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by jsingh »

Partly in response to the question about Yale, but also just a broader point here: really good players out of high school often struggle at the college level, especially when those players attempt to cover large swaths of the distribution like they did in high school. There are obviously exceptions to this (Jakob, Clark, Rahul, Matt Lehmann, Geoff, etc), but Nats difficulty hits like a truck and lots of people aren’t ready for that jump. Teams largely consisting of freshmen aren’t used to hearing increased arts/thought/the deeper areas of each core category, so I’d refrain from ranking them high up on the polls, regardless of how well they performed in high school. That being said, the best teams with lots of freshmen would be Stanford B (Olivia, Hanson, Andrew, Young) and Georgia Tech (Hari, Sohum, Tejas S, Harrison Z), so look for them to be somewhere around the bottom of the top 25.
Jaskaran Singh
Plano West '18
University of Texas at Austin '22
User avatar
Abdon Ubidia
Wakka
Posts: 152
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2016 3:46 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Abdon Ubidia »

Not sure where people are getting the idea that Ethan Strombeck is playing DI
Anson Berns
Montgomery Blair '19
Brown '23
User avatar
Judson Laipply
Rikku
Posts: 492
Joined: Sat May 05, 2007 10:02 pm
Location: Bucyrus, Ohio

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Judson Laipply »

ryanrosenberg wrote: Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:59 pm
22. Chicago C (projected roster: Halle Friedman, Ian Baram, Edgar Lin, Wonyoung Jang)
Placing any C team, even Chicago C, in the top 25, is a dicey proposition. There are plenty of questions about team composition and members' levels of competitiveness, but compared to the teams below them, Chicago C is a notch above in terms of scaling and nationals experience. Could go up a couple of spots if James Lasker maintains eligibility or Sam Winikow returns.

I can't speak for Sam, but I am returning to the Cabal.
James L.
Kellenberg '10
UPenn '14
UChicago '20
jdpasspawn
Wakka
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by jdpasspawn »

A reminder that the poll will be closing tonight at 11:59 PM, so any last minute ballots should be completed and sent in very soon.
Jack Lewis
'18 Battle Ground Academy
'24 Middle Tennessee State University
jdpasspawn
Wakka
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by jdpasspawn »

Voting has finished. The 19 Voters were Wonyoung Jang, Ben Miller, Jacob Reed, Taylor Harvey, Jonathen Settle, Vishwa Shanmugam, Ryan Rosenberg, Alex Damisch, Jaskaran Singh, Matt Mitchell, Richard Yu, Charles Hang, Kai Smith, Ryan Bilger, Moses Kitakule, Daniel Hothem, Chandler West, Bradley McLain, and Ryan Humphrey. Thanks to all of them for taking the time to contribute..

1. Chicago Maroons, 475, all first place votes
2. Illinois Fighting Illini, 442, Highest #2, Lowest #5
3. Maryland Terrapins, 433, Highest # 2, Lowest #5
4. Columbia Lions, 415, Highest #2, Lowest # 9
5. Ohio State Buckeyes, 403, Highest # 3, Lowest # 6
6. Harvard Crimson, 354, Highest #5, Lowest # 11
7. Virginia Cavaliers, 350, Highest # 4, Lowest #10
8. Berkeley Golden Bears,348, Highest #4, Lowest #11
9. Chicago Maroons B, 335, Highest #4, Lowest #12
10. Florida Gators, 304, Highest #7, Lowest #13
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 288, Highest #6, Lowest #15
12. Stanford Cardinal, 281, Highest # 6, Lowest # 14
13. Texas Longhorns, 243, Highest #10, Lowest #18
14. TIE Cornell Big Red, 187, Highest #13, Lowest #22
14 TIE Toronto Varsity Blues, 187, Highest # 13, Lowest #21
16. Mcgill, 162, Highest #12, Ranked by 17 voters
17. Oxford Dark Blues, 153, Highest #14, Lowest #25
18. Cambridge Light Blues, 139, Highest #12, Ranked by 16 voters
19. Washington (Mo.) Bears ,114, Highest #16, Lowest # 25
20. North Carolina Tar Heels, 112, Highest # 14, Ranked by 17 voters
21. UCLA Bruins, 106, Highest #15, Ranked by 18 Voters
22. Delaware Blue Hens, 86, Highest #15, Ranked by 12 voters
23. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 74, Highest #17, Ranked by 18 voters
24. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays, 54, Highest #10, Ranked by 8 voters
25. Chicago Maroons C, 40, Highest #18, Ranked by 13 Voters




Others receiving votes:
26. Yale Bulldogs, 16, Highest #16, Ranked by 5 voters
27. Penn Quakers, 14, Highest #20, Ranked by 4 voters
28. Stanford B, 12, Highest #21, Ranked by 5 Voters
29. Berkeley Golden Bears B, 11, Highest #15, ranked by 1 voter
30. Harvard Crimson B, 9, Highest #23, ranked by 5 voters
31. Duke Blue Devils,8, Highest # 23, ranked by 3 voters
32. Brown Bears ,6, Highest #23, Ranked by 3 Voters
33. Texas Longhorns B, 5, Highest #21, Ranked by 1 Voter
34. TIE Michigan State Spartans , 2, Highest #24, Ranked by 1 voter
34. TIE Penn State Nittany Lions, 2, Highest #24, Ranked by 1 voter
36. Tie Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 1, Highest #25, Ranked by 1 voter
36. TIE Purdue Boilermakers A, 1, Highest #25, Ranked by 1 voter
36.TIE Illinois Fighting Illini B, 1, Highest #25, Ranked by 1 voter

EDIT: To add in the others receiving votes, while also adding in No 25.
Last edited by jdpasspawn on Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jack Lewis
'18 Battle Ground Academy
'24 Middle Tennessee State University
User avatar
Cheynem
Sin
Posts: 7220
Joined: Tue May 11, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Grand Rapids, Michigan

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Cheynem »

Shouldn't that be the McGill Martlets?
Mike Cheyne
Formerly U of Minnesota

"You killed HSAPQ"--Matt Bollinger
User avatar
Father of the Ragdoll
Rikku
Posts: 270
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:11 pm
Location: Austin, Texas

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Father of the Ragdoll »

Can we also see the data for teams that got votes but were not in the top 25?
Brad Maclaine, McLain
(they/them)
The University of Texas at Austin - Ph.D. Human Development and Family Sciences, 202X; M.S. Social Work, 2021
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - B.S. Psychology, 2019
Rockford Auburn High School - 2015
User avatar
kitakule
Wakka
Posts: 201
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:49 am

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by kitakule »

Just an fyi - this poll is missing the #25 ranked team.
Moses Kitakule
ESA '15
Yale '19
Columbia '28 (???)
User avatar
women, fire and dangerous things
Tidus
Posts: 717
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2009 5:34 pm
Location: Örkko, Cimmeria

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by women, fire and dangerous things »

The #25 ranked team is the friends we made along the way.
Will Nediger
-Proud member of the cult of Urcuchillay-
University of Western Ontario 2011, University of Michigan 2017
Member emeritus, ACF
Writer, NAQT
User avatar
Good Goblin Housekeeping
Auron
Posts: 1100
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 10:03 am

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Good Goblin Housekeeping »

I can only assume in this situation that #25 is a hirschianwhiever you want goes here!”
It’s prerty shocking to me in that regards that Chicago A is only 25th
Andrew Wang
Illinois 2016
User avatar
thebluehawk1
Lulu
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2015 2:51 am
Location: College Park

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by thebluehawk1 »

To my knowledge JHU still has Robert and Eric. While they lose Walter to graduation, Tommy Tripp put up pretty solid numbers at nats (they finished 20th at nats without Robert btw). So unless there is something I don't know they are criminally under ranked.
Justin Hawkins
John Carroll HS '15
University of Maryland '19
Indiana University '24 (at best)
User avatar
Youngster Joey
Lulu
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 4:36 am
Location: Route 30, Johto

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by Youngster Joey »

thebluehawk1 wrote: Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:55 pm To my knowledge JHU still has Robert and Eric. While they lose Walter to graduation, Tommy Tripp put up pretty solid numbers at nats (they finished 20th at nats without Robert btw). So unless there is something I don't know they are criminally under ranked.
JHU will field Eric Bobrow, Robert Chu, Seth Ebner, Vinu Harihar/Tommy Tripp.
Walter Zhao
Torrey Pines '16
Johns Hopkins '19
UCSF '20
CWRU

"Remember my super cool Rattata? My Rattata is different from regular Rattata. It’s like my Rattata is in the top percentage of all Rattata."
jdpasspawn
Wakka
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by jdpasspawn »

The Others Receiving Votes and the final, mystery number 25 team have been added to the poll post above.

With the poll finished up I would like to have a season preview discussion, followed by a write up similar to the one done last year.

For those interested in participating in the discussion, the Discord Link to the season preview discussion server is here: https://discord.gg/AmXbQeY

Also for those interested in participating in the discussion make sure to fill out what times you would be able to make it here: https://www.when2meet.com/?8080117-9mTHF
Jack Lewis
'18 Battle Ground Academy
'24 Middle Tennessee State University
jdpasspawn
Wakka
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:00 pm

Re: Preseason Poll 2019-2020

Post by jdpasspawn »

The preseason discussion will be happening this Saturday, September 14th on the Preseason Discord at 8:00 pm EDT.
Jack Lewis
'18 Battle Ground Academy
'24 Middle Tennessee State University
Locked