HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by samus149 »

I for one find our ranking hilarious.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Mewto55555 »

You appear to have left out Ladue (like, obviously this is pre-season and you're spitballing on little information so it doesn't matter, but with all due respect to only-senior-on-Ladue B David, plugging either of returning A-team members Ben/Jialin into his missing spot here would have turned a T-21 team EASILY into a t-8 returning all their members).
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

Mewto55555 wrote:You appear to have left out Ladue (like, obviously this is pre-season and you're spitballing on little information so it doesn't matter, but with all due respect to only-senior-on-Ladue B David, plugging either of returning A-team members Ben/Jialin into his missing spot here would have turned a T-21 team EASILY into a t-8 returning all their members).
Ladue's in a spot where I'd expect my method to fail to ID them as a top 25. YO SHADOW TOO BIG SON.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

Oh, and random movies I found on Netflix search for the purpose of what everyone really cares about: puns. And awful ones at that.

1. LASA: A MOTHER'S LOVE (2006)
2. ST. JOHN'S CARTER (2012)
3. HIGH TECH, LOW LIFE (2012)
4. DR. BELLARMINE AND MR. DOYLE (2000)
5. IMSA CYBORG, BUT THAT'S OK (2006)

6. FIREMAN SAM: HERO NEXT DORMAN (2009)
7. NORTH MONTE CARLO (2011)
8. LASA'S B-IRTHDAY SURPRISE (2003)
9. DUPONT MALUNDE (2001)
10. DUNBAR STARZ (2008)

11. EZELL-HARDINGLE, BARRY (2006)
12. TUCKER AND CARBONDALE VS. EVIL (2010)
13. CHATTAHOOCHEE MAMMA DRAMA (2008)
14. MENLOWRIDER: HISTORY OF HYDRAULICS (2008)
15. ARCADIA FIRE: MIROIR NOIR (2007)

16. WESTERN ALBERMARLE AND ME: THE PUPPY YEARS (2008)
17. BLUE MOUNTAIN STATE COLLEGE (2010)
18. TRAIN WITH BIG GAME: TORRY "PINES" HOLT (2006)
19. SUN RA: LIVE IN OAKLAND MILLS (2006)
20. WILMINGTON CHARTERHOUSE OF PARMA (1948)

21. UFC 95: SANCHEZ VS. ADLAI STEVENSON (2009)
22. 30 FOR 30: THE TWO ESCOBARS (2010)
23. HELEN OF TROY (1956)
24. PIKEVILLEGAS (2012)
25. HEARTBREAK OAK RIDGE (1986)
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by pajaro bobo »

As much as I am proud to see Chattahoochee at 13 and as much as I believe that they're a top 25 team for sure next year, I'm a little baffled as to how our choke-tastic HSNCT performance points to us being ranked that high.

Yeah I know, it's just a preseason ranking and you've already admitted the likely presence of inaccuracies, but I'd really like to know what made you rate Hooch so well.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by MorganV »

Mewto55555 wrote:You appear to have left out Ladue (like, obviously this is pre-season and you're spitballing on little information so it doesn't matter, but with all due respect to only-senior-on-Ladue B David, plugging either of returning A-team members Ben/Jialin into his missing spot here would have turned a T-21 team EASILY into a t-8 returning all their members).
I find it quite ironic that LADUUUUUUUUE?! of all teams is complaining about their ranking.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Urech hydantoin synthesis »

MorganV wrote:
Mewto55555 wrote:You appear to have left out Ladue (like, obviously this is pre-season and you're spitballing on little information so it doesn't matter, but with all due respect to only-senior-on-Ladue B David, plugging either of returning A-team members Ben/Jialin into his missing spot here would have turned a T-21 team EASILY into a t-8 returning all their members).
I find it quite ironic that LADUUUUUUUUE?! of all teams is complaining about their ranking.
Uh, we don't have a ranking.

I eagerly await the first tournament results to see how much this holds up.
Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:my method
Please tell us more about this super secret preseason ranking method.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Rococo A Go Go »

Fred Ranks Things wrote:
9. DuPont Manual (KY)
10. Dunbar (KY)
24. Pikeville (KY)
Three Kentucky teams in the top 25?!
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Corry »

Christ, I Know wrote:
Please tell us more about this super secret preseason ranking method.
It mostly consists of me bribing Fred Morlan.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

Christ, I Know wrote:Please tell us more about this super secret preseason ranking method.
It's just PPB from HSNCT pro-rated by returning players' individual PPG, with performances from NSC (determined in the same manner) incorporated by comparison against performances there as appropriate and necessary.

Edit: I'm not sure if I specified this elsewhere on the site, but I feel like I have. It's not exactly super-secret.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Sniper, No Sniping! »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
Christ, I Know wrote:Please tell us more about this super secret preseason ranking method.
It's just PPB from HSNCT pro-rated by returning players...


Fisher Catholic returns everyone from a squad that had a higher HSNCT ppb then Carbondale, Menlo, State College, and Oak Ridge, and who also beat two teams you had in your top 25 for a while (Macomb and St. Joe's) while in Atlanta.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

Mr. Scogan wrote:
Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
Christ, I Know wrote:Please tell us more about this super secret preseason ranking method.
It's just PPB from HSNCT pro-rated by returning players...


Fisher Catholic returns everyone from a squad that had a higher HSNCT ppb then Carbondale, Menlo, State College, and Oak Ridge, and who also beat two teams you had in your top 25 for a while (Macomb and St. Joe's) while in Atlanta.
For some reason I had you guys losing Brandon. I'll go back and correct it later today. (It's the PPB that I care about, for the record).
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Jason Cheng »

I don't know how to feel about these rankings. On one hand, it's a big step up from last year, where the Arcadia A I was on didn't get a pre-season ranking. On the other hand, Arcade Fire.

Anyway, I'm no expert our Northern counterparts, but I wouldn't have expected "Escobar" to rank so much lower than Menlo, given that Escobar returns a lot of decent players as far as I know, and they have a strong W-L track record against Menlo.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Corry »

DJCocoPuffs wrote:I don't know how to feel about these rankings. On one hand, it's a big step up from last year, where the Arcadia A I was on didn't get a pre-season ranking. On the other hand, Arcade Fire.

Anyway, I'm no expert our Northern counterparts, but I wouldn't have expected "Escobar" to rank so much lower than Menlo, given that Escobar returns a lot of decent players as far as I know, and they have a strong W-L track record against Menlo.
I'm inclined to agree. I'm pretty sure that Escobar will return 2/4 of their HSNCT team, as well as Jonathan Lam (who didn't attend HSNCT, but scared the hell out of us the one time we played them).
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Adventure Temple Trail »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
Christ, I Know wrote:Please tell us more about this super secret preseason ranking method.
It's just PPB from HSNCT pro-rated by returning players' individual PPG, with performances from NSC (determined in the same manner) incorporated by comparison against performances there as appropriate and necessary.
It's pretty inaccurate to assume that a team will lose a majority of its bonus points from one year to the next upon losing a player/players who get(s) the majority of the tossups for the team. At the really elite level, many players on the same individual team will all know the answers to the easy and middle parts of bonuses, so the hit to points per bonus will be pretty low. And that doesn't factor in the fact that many elite teams have players that overlap knowledge on tossups, too, so the remaining players can pick up a lot of what they've lost by buzzing one clue or two behind their top scorer on those same questions. (examples: State College from 2009 to 2010, GDS from 2009 to 2010, East Chapel Hill from 2012 to 2013, Loyola from 2012 to 2013). By design, this formula is definitely going to severely underrate teams like Ladue and Maggie Walker that return an excellent second-scorer and many solid B-teamers.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

RyuAqua wrote:At the really elite level, many players on the same individual team will all know the answers to the easy and middle parts of bonuses, so the hit to points per bonus will be pretty low. And that doesn't factor in the fact that many elite teams have players that overlap knowledge on tossups, too, so the remaining players can pick up a lot of what they've lost by buzzing one clue or two behind their top scorer on those same questions. (examples: State College from 2009 to 2010, GDS from 2009 to 2010, East Chapel Hill from 2012 to 2013, Loyola from 2012 to 2013). By design, this formula is definitely going to severely underrate teams like Ladue and Maggie Walker that return an excellent second-scorer and many solid B-teamers.
That's correct. The reason for that is that, presently, there's no way to adjust for those problems if you're stuck with the current stats that we produce. Not that SQBS is better, but look at this stat report for Ladue from NAQT. From this information, it's impossible to account for shadow effects. If you try prorating out the team's PPB by returning powers rather than just individual scoring, in case that was the key difference, it wouldn't work either; Ladue's returning PPB would actually be lower using only powers.

Comparing the performance of the best returning player doesn't make sense when comparing with teams like St. John's that returns all of their scoring.

Better data like buzz points, allowing what is essentially a retroactive tournament of Goldfish HSNCT to occur, would be useful, but you still would have the problem in Ladue's case that Max played those questions. You can't definitively tell how good a roster is unless that roster plays together.

I suppose you could just say, "well, we all know that Ben from Ladue's really good, so we should subjectively guess where we think they are nationally." But part of why I've invested the time in this project is to try to rank teams objectively and avoid what happens historically in quiz bowl (and other competitive activities), a focus on traditional powers at the expense of newer programs that also perform well.

Honestly, like the post-nationals rankings, the preseason rankings aren't something I like doing as much as the regular season. It wouldn't break my heart if I didn't do them at all, but I feel like they're expected in some way, and it's kind of fun to see if I can come up with a system that works with current limitations.

It is fortunate that by November or December, if not earlier in the season, these problems won't matter. This blind spot doesn't exist once I have actual data that represents the performances of these teams with their 2013-2014 rosters.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

I actually just went back and looked at the last season where I put together a full preseason top 25 (2011-2012) and compared it with my pre-nationals rankings. I did tinker with the formula this time around, so it's no guarantee of accuracy this year, .

Code: Select all

Hunter 1 -> 2
Bellarmine 2 -> 1
Centennial 3 -> 3
Auburn 4 -> 5
St. Anselm's 5 -> 11

LASA 6 -> 19
duPont Manual 7 -> 29
Dunbar 8 -> 18
GDS 9 -> 15
IMSA 10 -> 4

University School of Nashville 11 -> 58 (produced exactly one stat line)
Dorman 12 -> 7
Carbondale 13 -> 14
Walt Whitman 14 -> 13
Loyola 15 -> 9

Ladue 16 -> 8
Seven Lakes 17 -> 6
Cistercian 18 -> 17
Mission San Jose 19 -> UR (I don't think I had results for a "Mission San Jose" team all year)
Thomas Jefferson 20 -> 12

Hunter B 21 -> 30
Richard Montgomery 22 -> 23
St. Paul Central 23 -> 92
Arcadia 24 -> 55
Olmsted Falls 25 -> 26
I don't really consider duPont Manual a "miss" that year; picking out a team as really good and "only" having them be 29th in the country is not what I would think is a failure. The Mission San Jose situation was out of my control. USN produced one stat line, which isn't doing anyone any favors.

So this leaves two teams in the last five of the rankings as ones I was way off of: St. Paul Central and Arcadia. I don't know of any excuses to be made here; both Central and Arcadia only played three tournaments that produced usable PPB, but Centennial, Dunbar and LASA A only played four, and unless that's the secret magic number of tournaments played that lets you know if a team's good, that excuse doesn't hold water. St. Paul Central finished tied for 49th at HSNCT and Arcadia finished tied for 33rd (neither played at NSC), both performances that were better than their pre-nationals ranking and closer to their pre-season ranking.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Tanay »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:The Mission San Jose situation was out of my control. USN produced one stat line, which isn't doing anyone any favors.
MSJ played as "Escobar" all of last year. You'll probably find many more stat lines for Escobar.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

Tanay wrote:
Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:The Mission San Jose situation was out of my control. USN produced one stat line, which isn't doing anyone any favors.
MSJ played as "Escobar" all of last year. You'll probably find many more stat lines for Escobar.
Yeah, at the time it wasn't clear if that was okay or not. I don't deal with undercover teams.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) »

I don't understand why you can't exercise more editorial discretion on the rankings though. If you're going to bother to have a pre-season ranking I would think you would at least want to be able to be satisfied that they really represent a possible top 25, rather than excluding an obviously top-notch team just because they don't have the right kind of data for you to predict their performance. There's nothing wrong with going in and sticking a team or two in the mix just because you think they'll do better than the stats say, right?
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

My concern with doing that would be complaints about favoritism.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Matt Weiner »

Any other people who want to produce rankings on their own criteria are welcome to post them on this board or wherever.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by fett0001 »

Actually, if other, knowledgeable people wanted to post a top 25, we could make a "BCS" ranking.

>___>
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by mtimmons »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:So this leaves two teams in the last five of the rankings as ones I was way off of: St. Paul Central and Arcadia. I don't know of any excuses to be made here; both Central and Arcadia only played three tournaments that produced usable PPB, but Centennial, Dunbar and LASA A only played four, and unless that's the secret magic number of tournaments played that lets you know if a team's good, that excuse doesn't hold water. St. Paul Central finished tied for 49th at HSNCT and Arcadia finished tied for 33rd (neither played at NSC), both performances that were better than their pre-nationals ranking and closer to their pre-season ranking.
At least in the case of St. Paul Central although the preseason rank of 23rd was way too high it wasn't as erroneous as suggested by the pre-nationals ranking which was based off three tournaments: at one we were a two-man team for almost half of the tournament, at another we were a two-man team with the second and third scorers missing and at the third tournament the top scorer and the third scorer were missing.

EDIT: clarity
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Lawrence Simon »

I am actually a little surprised that I don't see Cave Spring up there, also Walter Johnson, but then again I don't compute statistics I just obsess when they're posted.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

The first update to the rankings will likely come around the weekend of October 19th.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:Tweeting, dude.
Unless the account gets suspended because I try to use Twitter for its apparent purpose, which is Tweeting at people. This is apparently the first step of many in which I lose touch with technology. If anybody needs me, I'll be playing N64.

Edit: seriously, if anyone has tips on tweeting to schools that don't follow me because they don't know I exist in a manner that will keep me out of spending hard time in Twitter Penitentiary, let me know. I don't feel like digging through SEO nonsense blogs.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

And if someone wants to contribute a background image that isn't something that I made in 3 seconds with Paint to amuse myself, get in touch with me.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Mewto55555 »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:And if someone wants to contribute a background image that isn't something that I made in 3 seconds with Paint to amuse myself, get in touch with me.
Maybe a picture of people playing quizbowl or something?
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Lo, Marathon Ham! »

I'm just wondering how Mountain Lakes A got ranked when they were beaten by MAST by 400 points at PHSAT and then MAST was beaten by us (Wilmignton Charter B) by 85 points...additionally I couldn't help but notice that Torrey Pines was put down twice...
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Al Hirt »

Chunky Sean wrote:I'm just wondering how Mountain Lakes A got ranked when they were beaten by MAST by 400 points at PHSAT and then MAST was beaten by us (Wilmignton Charter B) by 85 points...additionally I couldn't help but notice that Torrey Pines was put down twice...
I think Mountain Lakes' performance at FAcT was factored in, that's all.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

Chunky Sean wrote:I'm just wondering how Mountain Lakes A got ranked when they were beaten by MAST by 400 points at PHSAT and then MAST was beaten by us (Wilmignton Charter B) by 85 points...additionally I couldn't help but notice that Torrey Pines was put down twice...
Torrey Pines issue is fixed.

I don't care about win/loss; feel free to refer to previous discussions of my theory.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by samus149 »

Regarding PHSAT: NAQT does a weird thing with the stats where the ppb comes out bad on their website. If that's what you used, the stats on the database are more accurate.

edit: tone
Last edited by samus149 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Lo, Marathon Ham! »

EBAcademicTeam wrote:
Chunky Sean wrote:I'm just wondering how Mountain Lakes A got ranked when they were beaten by MAST by 400 points at PHSAT and then MAST was beaten by us (Wilmignton Charter B) by 85 points...additionally I couldn't help but notice that Torrey Pines was put down twice...
I think Mountain Lakes' performance at FAcT was factored in, that's all.
Hmmmm...I see. Well, that explains it... #A-setLove
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Important Bird Area »

samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
This is a known bug on naqt.com (games without individual stats are lumped in with "bonus conversion"). We will at some point fix this, but it might not be soon.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
Which teams would be affected by this?
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

bt_green_warbler wrote:
samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
This is a known bug on naqt.com (games without individual stats are lumped in with "bonus conversion"). We will at some point fix this, but it might not be soon.
When should I expect this problem to appear so I don't lose my mind by May?
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Important Bird Area »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
Which teams would be affected by this?
Just DCC/Charter A (you can see here that the final has no individual stats recorded).
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

bt_green_warbler wrote:
Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
Which teams would be affected by this?
Just DCC/Charter A (you can see here that the final has no individual stats recorded).
I mean in the more general sense: what kind of tournaments would be affected? What cases? Other statements ending in question marks?
Fred Morlan
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former PACE member, president, etc.
former hsqbrank manager, former NAQT writer & subject editor, former hsqb Administrator/Chief Administrator
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by jonah »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
bt_green_warbler wrote:
Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
Which teams would be affected by this?
Just DCC/Charter A (you can see here that the final has no individual stats recorded).
I mean in the more general sense: what kind of tournaments would be affected? What cases? Other statements ending in question marks?
Tournaments in which some games have detailed stats available but some do not.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Important Bird Area »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
bt_green_warbler wrote:
samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
This is a known bug on naqt.com (games without individual stats are lumped in with "bonus conversion"). We will at some point fix this, but it might not be soon.
When should I expect this problem to appear so I don't lose my mind by May?
I just sent you some details about this.
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former HSQB Chief Admin (2012-13)
VP for Communication and history subject editor, NAQT
Editor emeritus, ACF

"I wish to make some kind of joke about Jeff's love of birds, but I always fear he'll turn them on me Hitchcock-style." -Fred
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Insolvency law of Canada »

Thanks for the rankings, Fred.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by Sniper, No Sniping! »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
bt_green_warbler wrote:
Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote:
samus149 wrote:If Charter A and DCC A are higher than us due to PHSAT stats, it's because they got an extra 1.5 PPB or so on the NAQT website (NAQT messed up the data input for the final round). The entry on the database is more accurate, though not combined.
Which teams would be affected by this?
Just DCC/Charter A (you can see here that the final has no individual stats recorded).
I mean in the more general sense: what kind of tournaments would be affected? What cases? Other statements ending in question marks?
I know Tippecanoe in Ohio's A-set tournament has always had skewed bonus numbers due to the "no individual stats" in the playoff stage.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

I apparently lost my mind well before May, because middle schools are ranked too.
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Re: HSQBRank 2013-2014: Witty Subtitle

Post by AKKOLADE »

samus149 wrote:Regarding PHSAT: NAQT does a weird thing with the stats where the ppb comes out bad on their website. If that's what you used, the stats on the database are more accurate.

edit: tone
Thank you for letting me know about this issue. I've updated the rankings to reflect this corrected information.
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