What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

It'll be interesting to see how things turn out next year, I expect WJ and Oakland Mills to be either on top or somewhere close to there, but their best players will all be seniors. I'm not too sure about the state of Oakland Mills' other players since they only put up a minor showing at RM's Novice tournament, but WJ seems to just have a fine crop of juniors as I think their only good B team player is also a junior. I should say to expect QO to be getting far better after this summer after our juniors and sophomores have another big summer at ACE Camp, and expect to see our freshman rise up too over the next few years. GDS, Western Albemarle, and St. Anselm's should all be insanely good in a couple years too after Noah, Eric, and Tajin keep getting better. I think when Tajin is a senior though that no team in the area stands a chance. But I think in about a year or two QO, GDS, St. Anselm's, and WA will be pulling some major upsets. All depends on how good RM and Blair are in 2014-2015.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by jonathanmarx »

Lawrence Simon wrote:All depends on how good RM and Blair are in 2014-2015.
I expect our team in 2014-15 to be significantly better than our current one, assuming our sophomores and freshmen maintain their current pace studying-wise. That being said, with the increased access to study resources and tournaments, I expect the overall skill level of top teams to rise tremendously so we'll see how far that gets them.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by The Stately Rhododendron »

Lawrence Simon wrote: I'm not too sure about the state of Oakland Mills' other players since they only put up a minor showing at RM's Novice tournament
Yeah, so far no one has shown any willingness to study. I'm hoping this will change eventually, but it's completely reasonable to say that OM is going to have a drop off in quality in 2014-15.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

Nobody on Western Albemarle has shown too much inclination to study either, let alone go to tournaments with me, so it'll most likely be me solo at most tournaments. I expect a big dropoff for Western in 2015-16 unless someone else starts learning things for quizbowl. In general though, I agree with Noah, this area will be amazing in a few years once all the current non-senior led teams mature.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

That sadly reminds me of last year when no one on the QO team seemed interested in studying or improving despite a us having a team that was lacking generally in all areas except for history. But ultimately me and some new teammates have turned things around and now we have a solid team with lots of room for expansion. I think what motivated me the most was hearing about the past QO had with players like David and Chris, and hopefully having a successful team will motivate Oakland Mills and Western Ablemarle players to be more active and study. But OM did at least have one player who put up decent stats at RM's novice tournament in October. I haven't heard much about other WA players, though.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by naan/steak-holding toll »

Well, at least you guys haven't had your quizbowl programs collapse entirely. BCC's academic team has regressed once again to being utterly consumed by It's Academic and Quizmaster Challenge.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

So with Virginia and Maryland/DC states over it looks like the time of year when most teams will buckle down and get ready for Nationals in May. Western Albemarle kicked serious but and won the Virginia State championship, kudos to them and it's clear to me now that they will have a bright future over the next couple years at least. Blair won Maryland/DC, which didn't surprise me, if anyone, and it looks like Thomas may have gone on a bit of a binge recently after seeing him outperform Ian. It looks like Blair has plenty of material to drive their program over the next couple years, especially if their players put in the effort that Ian and Thomas did last summer this upcoming one. WJ's spot on top is guaranteed for next year as long as they keep studying and maybe end up beating RM next year, even with their talent. My prediction for next year's top teams in Maryland is this:
First: depends on who goes over the top with studying this summer, RM's rising juniors and seniors or Sameen and Nathan from WJ. My prediction is that WJ will improve greatly again for this summer and take the top spot, maybe a tie, all depends.
Second: Probably where RM will be, but then again Oakland Mills is gonna a force to be reckoned with next year, they could pull some upsets, but then again Centennial also has potential.
Third: Blair is probably gonna drop down to either here or fourth next year, we'll have to see. Optimistically QO could come this high next year, as long as me, Henry, Sean, and our other members keep improving like we have been.
Fourth: My hope for where we'll be next year, QO I mean, probably where Centennial or Blair will be next year.
Fifth: This one is open to any big upsets, maybe QO, maybe Perry Hall, maybe Gonzaga. Could be where Blair drops down to next year, could be where Oakland Mills could end up if they don't put in the effort.
Final picks: 1)Walter Johnson, 2)Richard Montgomery, 3)Oakland Mills, 4)Centennial/Blair, 5)Quince Orchard. I don't know much about Virginia, but I'm guessing Western Albemarle will be on top, or maybe Maggie Walker, TJ has serious potential for next year too.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by jabekens »

I'm going to go against the advice of my teammates and spend valuable studying time putting in a worthless speculation on things that have not happened yet in this self-gratifying and egotistical thread.

I have very little idea of how DC/MD will turn out, since I've not played against many teams other than Blair's and RM's A Teams, along with TJ, WJ, and GDS. OM will be good, depending on how much they study. QO might be good, depending on how much they study. WJ will be strong...depending on how much they study as well. If Noah & Co. continue at the same rate, GDS will be pretty strong next year. As Noah said, they've lost to RM and a weakened MW by one tossup, and that's how it was for us all of last year (all of our losses at HSNCT were by one question, except Hunter), which turned out to be a good sign for this year.

As for VA, TJ looks to have a few solid players who seem to be helping the towering figure we all know as Raynor, but because of his presence, it's hard to really estimate how strong TJ will be without him. Western Albemarle will be a powerhouse for the next 2 years, but unless Eric gets some good recruitment underway or manages to encourage his teammates to study, after those two years, the program will struggle. The only time I got to play against WA was when we were playing shorthanded at NAQT States. We got crushed, and I think even with our full team it would have been very close on those questions. Eric should be a dominant force nationally for next year and the year after if he continues improving at the same rate. I don't know anything about Southwest VA, except that the teams there always seem to have a pool to draw from to make them locally strong with chances to be a force regionally or nationally when they study more, such as last year with Michael Zhang and Matt Moschella. As for Central VA, Clover Hill graduates Venu, so their team will suffer a bit, New Kent I think graduates their whole A team, but they always manage to have players replenishing their ranks, so it all depends on whether their players for next year study or not.

Now for probably the only new thing I have to add to this speculation: MW will be strong, but there's no way to know to what extent, since nobody on our team ever knows what Connor is studying, and yet he improves faster than the rest of us...and he's still got 2 years left. MW in 2 and 3 years will be a force to be reckoned with nationally, that's for certain, but next year is unclear. Of course, as I said, this is all pretty worthless, since actions speak for themselves, and words like these will make y'all think one thing...until teams start losing and "upsets" are occurring. Then nobody can figure it out because it's all foretold in this thread which tells which teams are the "best" and which are the "worst" without a single game having been played. That said, I should probably get back to preparing for Nationals, and maybe I'll put in a real opinion once teams have started playing each other next year.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Pushkin's Beard »

Lawrence Simon wrote:Final picks: 1)Walter Johnson, 2)Richard Montgomery, 3)Oakland Mills, 4)Centennial/Blair, 5)Quince Orchard. I don't know much about Virginia, but I'm guessing Western Albemarle will be on top, or maybe Maggie Walker, TJ has serious potential for next year too.
I feel the teams that normally dominate Virginia are going to do well there and Western Albemarle will be part of those teams. And I just have one addition to the more DC area teams...I'm just gonna point out that 3/4 of a GDS team just got 10 tossups against WJ in one game then beat them in another game later that day. We have also been 1 tossup away from beating RM and a team of me and a freshman going to his first tournament ever placed higher than Centennial. We also only lose one person (a person who is not really a quizbowl regular) and gain 1 person already established in quizbowl and some good freshmen.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

I was only classifying teams specifically in Maryland, but yeah, GDS and St. Anselm's are obviously going to get better by next year, I expect to see them at the top of the pack again either next year or two years from now.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

For Maryland area teams, I'm going to put Walter Johnson tentatively first, since they're not losing too many people, returning Sameen, and overall are improving very rapidly (as I saw when I got blown out by them at VCU Spring). I wish I had more actual playing time against some of these teams, but Blair's players who aren't Ian and Thomas have impressed me the few times I've seen them and RM's B team is apparently very good as well. Quince Orchard and Oakland Mills are other teams that I don't have too much info or playing experience against, but I'm going to put them behind the other teams for now, though they certainly have potential with dedicated members of the teams not graduating (bringing back the theme of this area being filled with non-senior led teams).

Also, not to forget them, GDS is an extremely good team that's also very young and should be making waves, if not next year, than the year after that. If everyone on their teams puts in work over the summer, they'll definitely be a force to be reckoned with next year. Haven't played against St. Anselm's, but Tajin's stats kinda blow my mind, so they'll be monstrous during his senior year even if he only marginally improves.

Moving on to Virginia, I do think that TJ (losing Raynor and other good seniors) and Maggie Walker (graduating 3/4 of their A team) will be worse next year, barring someone coming out of nowhere to fill the gap, which is definitely possible. As Raynor pointed out previously though, TJ has decent upperclassmen to replace those leaving, and Maggie Walker keeps Connor, who along with Vasa, should provide at least a very strong humanities and history base for the new Maggie Walker team, which also has some pretty good freshmen. Cave Spring and Christiansburg, although sometimes ignored in these discussions, should definitely be up there with the other teams, as they both have very good players that will be returning for their senior years next year. I've always feel that they've been underranked just because of their location in the mountains, but they are very good teams. As for my own team, I'm planning to keep plodding along as I always have, occasionally entering a tournament here or there and hopefully sometimes having teammates with me. More likely though, next year will once again be Western Albemarle 1-manning it up at local tournaments. Our team does have a rising senior who has promised to study more science for next year, so if I study some more over the summer to complement that, we should be pretty good next year. New Kent is graduating their entire A team, and unless their B team does some intense studying, I don't forsee them being anywhere near as good as they are this year.

This area really is incredibly full of talent, and I'm very glad to be playing in a time where there are so many dedicated high-school non-seniors rising up in the ranks. Can't wait for next year's discussion to begin, but first, nationals!
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by The Stately Rhododendron »

Let's not forget that in OM's last game played against WJ, we lost by 10 points (after negging 5 times)! Sameen's improved a lot, but so have we. I'd put us and WJ at about equal level next year (this of course contingent on wether or not me and paul actually study over the summer) and I see us winning some tournaments, and them winning tournaments too.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

Mr. Joyboy wrote:Let's not forget that in OM's last game played against WJ, we lost by 10 points (after negging 5 times)! Sameen's improved a lot, but so have we. I'd put us and WJ at about equal level next year (this of course contingent on wether or not me and paul actually study over the summer) and I see us winning some tournaments, and them winning tournaments too.
Yeah, probably should've prefaced my remarks with a "rankings are purely subjective and based on my experiences playing these teams". Mainly, I tend to find every team that I've actually played against very good, so I'm sorry if I made it seem like you guys were a lot worse, you are probably a very good team, I just haven't played you guys. My bad if any offense was caused!
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by naan/steak-holding toll »

I'm bored of studying for finals, so I think I'll do a little speculation here.

All rankings are in rough order, but teams within the same tier are generally comparable to each other, though some are certainly better than others.

TIER 1
Western Albermarle - I think this is pretty non-controversial. Eric by himself is 23 ppb at regular tournaments right now; if he has support, that's only going to be even more dominant.
Maggie Walker - Sure, 3/4 of their A-Team graduates, but they've still got Connor and their B-Team has some solid talent.

TIER 1.5 - These guys won't quite be as good as the Tier 1 teams, but I expect good performances nonetheless, and they can definitely pull some upsets.
Cave Spring - They were good enough to be on local news! Also, T-33 at HSNCT is good.
Walter Johnson - Sameen's good, but they lose a decent amount of scoring power with Grahme leaving.
RM - Their A-Team graduates. Gabe and Roy will have to pick up the slack, but I think they can do it.
Oakland Mills - Paul and Isaac will be in their last year. I expect they'll want to make it count.
GDS - They do have a team of mostly sophomores, so these guys have a bright future ahead of them.
St. Anselm's - Their best player is a freshman. They can only get better.
Loudon County - I don't know much about them. They seem pretty good, though.
Quince Orchard - I'll take Lawrence's word for it and expect good things from them, but I'll be conservative in my rough ranking.

TIER 2 - I can't really say much here, because I haven't been in the area much this year. I probably also missed several important people who should be in the Tier 1.5 rankings.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by UlyssesInvictus »

I and Sarah graduate, but you can't expect me not to defend Sid and Nadege's (both juniors) abilities. We also have the team of freshmen that got 2nd at MSNCT together steadily gaining experience, along with some sophomores to hold the fort. I get that this is just hypothesizing on Will's part, but I hope this gives an idea of how TJ will be over the next few years.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Kafkaesque »

Whoa, my team actually got a mention. Thanks, Will! Loudoun County has a good bit of potential, but our success next year is entirely contingent on how much I and Reese study (as the rest of the team doesn't seem to have the motivation). We'll definitely be looking to give some of the perennial Virginia powers a challenge or two in the coming season.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

Seeing as it's shaping up to be a long Saturday, I thought I would put together a little thing detailing every DC-area team's performance at HSNCT, along with what I think their futures will look like. Hopefully nobody is offended by what I have to say, though generally everything I say is pretty positive! (My list is going in order of HSNCT finish, not how I think everyone's going to finish next year).

Montgomery Blair: T-5, 9-1/3-2

9-1 on Saturday. Wow. Blair's A team was spectacular this season, and with Sam Zbarsky stepping out of the shadows at HSNCT to bolster them, they proved that they were one of the best teams in the country, putting up a very impressive performance throughout the tournament. I believe they do graduate this entire A team though, and I'm not quite sure as to the make-up of their B team, considering I haven't played against them once this year. I was once told never to discount perennial powers though, and Blair is certainly no different. Making up Thomas and Ian's contributions is going to be hard though (good luck at college!).

Richard Montgomery: T-13, 8-2/3-2

RM A was a very balanced team this season, not weak on any particular part of the distribution and always playing very well together. Even though their entire A-team, similar to Blair's, graduates, their B team this year was definitely formidable, with wins over DCD and DCC B to boast. Gabe in particular impresses me every time I play him (read, two) with the depth of his knowledge. They'll be very good next year, and probably very nationally competitive the year after that as well.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech: T-13, 7-3/3-2

TJ has always been fearsome in the past, and this year was definitely no different, with Raynor showing everyone why he is most likely the best player in all of Virginia. Raynor's performances have always been outstanding, though of course, the big question this year is how TJ is going to restock for next year with Raynor moving on to Harvard. Personally, I think that TJ's juniors, averaging a solid 15-20 ppg behind Raynor, and TJ's B team, which is decent enough to do pretty well at regular tournaments, should make a pretty good team next year, and with incoming Longfellow students, TJ's future should be pretty secure.

Maggie Walker Governor's School: T-21, 7-3/2-2

Finishing very respectably at HSNCT with two extremely close losses in the playoffs to two very good teams, Maggie Walker had a very balanced and strong team when they were at full power. Next year, they graduate 3 members of their A team, but return Connor Wood, an outstanding player who has the ability and motivation to improve extremely rapidly, which I have no doubt he will do in the offseason and next year. I'm not sure how many of their B and C team players return, but they return at least Vasa, a very good history player, and Patrick, a good C-team contributor, so they should be very solid on history and the arts for the next two years at least. When Connor is a senior, I think Maggie Walker has the potential to be quite amazing on a national level.

Western Albemarle: T-21, 7-3/2-2

ohgoditsmyteam. Next year, I hope to attend a few more tournaments with hopefully a few more people, so it won't just be me alone hitting up tournaments in the VA region. There are members on the team who definitely show signs of wanting to get better, so if that can be maintained and people actually start coming to non-VHSL tournaments, I think we'll be pretty set for next year. I only have two more years in high school quizbowl, so I better make the most of it, right? Maybe actually learn some real science...... Our power rates this year definitely weren't high enough to warrant us being nationally relevant. My goal over the summer is to change that.

Cave Spring: T-33, 7-3/1-2

A perennial power for SE Virginia that occasionally attends other tournaments outside the area, Cave Spring returns James Cole, who has shown himself to be a fantastic player after the departure of Michael Zhang and who had 25 powers over the course of prelims at HSNCT, no small feat. Although their ppb wasn't as high as some of the other teams that finished tied for 33rd, his return, along with the return of his teammate Maddie Burton, a very solid support player, means that they have one more year next year to improve on their great performance this year and stun some people who might underestimate their abilities.

Walter Johnson: T-73, 6-4/0-1

Not really sure what it is about these guys, but they always seem to play amazing every time I go up against them. As mentioned before, they do lose Grahme next year, but Sameen is a great player who has the potentially to become an amazing player with enough effort and practice. As next year is his senior year, you better believe that he's going to be coming back to make a statement on the region before he graduates. His teammates give him enough help in their various specialities to ensure he won't be alone doing so either.

Georgetown Day School: 110th, 5-5

I think GDS really just went too hard in the paint at HSNCT, negging themselves to a point where they lost many games by less than 30 points. I firmly believe that GDS will improve massively before the time their captain graduates, as I'm sure Noah's not content with that finish at HSNCT. I heard rumors that Tajin is transferring to GDS next year, is that true? If so, they'd be absolutely terrifying, though for my sake, I kinda hope not.......

Quince Orchard: 152nd, 5-5

Lawrence Simon has the makings of a very good quizbowler. All he needs is a little more depth and breadth to his knowledge to be very good. He's also a sophomore though, so he has much room to improve. Missing out on the sophomore All-Star team by less than 1 ppg is tough, sorry man :(

St. Anselm's: Did not attend

Tajin's good. Very good. Also very good at negging though. Tajin has good knowledge everywhere except for maybe science, with some of the deepest history knowledge this side of the Appalachians. However, his inexperience with quizbowl can kinda be seen when he plays, as he still hasn't quite figured out the entire canon and common clues that are familiar to most experience teams. Still, when I was a freshman, I thought a canon was something that I would labor over by Bach, so he's far ahead of the game there. He can only get better, which bodes well for wherever he is in the coming years. Maybe St. Anselm's, maybe not.

Oakland Mills: Did not attend

Still haven't played you all! I hate judging teams based off of only stats, but it's kind of necessary when you know they're a power but one you're familiar with. Isaac and Paul return for their senior years, and although they usually make top bracket at local tournaments, they typically fall behind once they go against the best of the best teams in the area. Still, a win over full Maggie Walker A is very impressive, and I'm sure they want to shut me up about them and show how good they really are next season. :)

So yeah, there's my stupidly long analysis of a bunch of DC-Area (some not) teams for next season. Other teams that I would like to mention include Loudoun County (Mason's cool, Loudoun's pretty good) and Christiansburg (Jordan Kuhn returns, and he's been steadily improving through the season). Anyone who actually gets through reading this, do yourself a favor, go outside, run around in a sunlit field or something, instead of spending the first hours of June thinking this up in a dark room!
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by jonathanmarx »

Einhard wrote:with incoming Kealing students, TJ's future should be pretty secure.
Pretty sure you didn't mean Kealing.

Nonetheless, pretty solid analysis - just to put in a few words about the future of RM, next year will obviously be a rebuilding one. We lose our whole A-team and two of the four B-team players as well. Nonetheless, I believe in Gabe to carry the program for the next two years, and I believe in at least a few of the myriad of supporting players (Roy, Ben, Farah have all consistently put up solid stats on B team) to study and fill in some of Gabe's gaps.

Considering how much Gabe has improved in the past year (going from being a middling freshman to the best lit/arts player in the RM program as a sophomore, in my opinion), I'm excited to see what he does with a summer of studying and over the next two years as a whole. I firmly believe that he'll be a top-notch generalist (with lockdown knowledge of lit and arts) by his senior year - and if a few of the other talented underclassmen get their s**t together, I see them as a potential top-10 team in 2015.

For this year, though, I think it'll be Eric (especially if he gets teammates) battling it out with WJ (if Sameen goes on the study binge I expect him to), with Gov/RM/Oakland Mills sneaking into the top two fairly frequently. This looks to be one of the more wide-open and unpredictable years in the DC area.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

jonathanmarx wrote:
Einhard wrote:with incoming Kealing students, TJ's future should be pretty secure.
Pretty sure you didn't mean Kealing.
Yeah..... meant Longfellow.......
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by fett0001 »

Maddie Burton graduated, Eric, and is headed to W&M next year. My money is still on that James Cole kid to be a power in SWVA.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

I feel so honored to have my team talked of so highly in these conversations! Our A team next year will be made up of four people, Henry, Sean, Emma, and I. Henry is our main science player, with lots of knowledge but still lots more to gain, he has a distinct problem of knowing too much and buzzing too little. Sean just gets random buzzes here and there, especially at Nationals where he powered Protoss. Emma is a new addition this year, our best myth player who just started this, her junior year, and originally only knew Greco-Roman myth, but rapidly expanded into Norse and Egyptian, and now into Asian and Meso/Native-American. All of us will be much better after a summer at Ace Camp, but after becoming my team's best lit, art, and music player this year I'm going to go on my own binge to make sure I become strong players in all of these categories. We also picked up two great freshman, one is a biology player who has quickly expanded over the past couple months into chemistry and physics, and can only go up from there. Another who originally started without a specialty, but has become probably our most solid lit player, at least on our B team. After sending at least six kids to Ace Camp this summer expect us to make a huge jump forward come next year.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by geowzrd »

Woodgrove has graduated quite a few seniors this year(myself included), although if the rest of the team continues to study and practice, I think they should do well. Also, does anyone know about the VHSL restructuring?
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Matt Weiner »

Your school's athletic director should know about it in general. HSAPQ is working with the VHSL to prepare a letter explaining its particular impact on Scholastic Bowl, which will be distributed to all the schools in the state. To summarize here, there are four changes being implemented that affect Scholastic Bowl:

1) The existing "districts" are being supplemented by "conferences." The conferences serve the function that districts formerly did (they have five to eight teams and produce champions that move on to Regionals) but they are composed based on an attempt at school-size parity rather than geography. The first level of post-season play will be the conference tournament. Districts will still exist, but they will only be used for regular season play (in those districts that choose to have a regular season). In all sports, a district tournament prior to the conference tournament is an option, but will be for bragging rights only and not feed into the state tournament. I have no idea which, if any, districts will want to do a district SB tournament moving forward. We will continue to offer a 28-packet set at the district level for regular season use, and districts can pull packets out of that for a district tournament if they desire.

2) There are now six, rather than three, classes, and every school has been assigned to its new class based solely on its size without any factors such as selectivity or location considered.

3) Each class is divided into two, rather than four, regions.

4) The state tournament for each class will be a four-team round-robin tournament rather than an eight-team double-elimination tournament. The path will still go conference top two to regionals --> eight team regional tournament --> top two to states.

These are the groupings that come into effect over the summer:

http://www.vhsl.org/doc/upload/Item%203 ... 014-15.pdf

Some traditional Scholastic Bowl powers or recent success stories, listed as they fall into the new state tournaments:
6A: Robinson, Ocean Lakes, Langley, Western Branch, Stonewall Jackson
5A: Princess Anne, Thomas Jefferson, Marshall, Clover Hill, Freeman, Henrico
4A: Woodgrove, Charlottesville, E.C. Glass
3A: New Kent, Western Albemarle, Spotswood, James Monroe, Blacksburg, Christiansburg, Cave Spring, Hidden Valley
2A: Nandua, Maggie Walker, George Mason
1A: Eastern Montgomery, Honaker, Radford

This does break up many existing state rivalries--in the past 4 years of the state tournament, the AAA final was TJ-Maggie Walker every year and the A final was George Mason-Honaker 3 times. Both of those pairings have been sent off to separate classes now. All of the recent contenders in the old class AA remain together in 3A, which will be a slugfest every year. Obviously, we're all excited about the continued growth in the number of top-level competitive teams in Virginia and you never know who will emerge to contend in a given year, so we'll see where the new rivalries pop up.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Kafkaesque »

Eric, thanks for the analysis! I enjoyed the read.

Some 4A comments: I'm not sure who will fill Chris' shoes on Woodgrove next year; he probably got around 80% of their points last year, and there was no clear #2 on the team. Charlottesville was pretty good this past season; I'm still bitter about losing to them on the last question at regionals, but we'll try to avenge that tough loss next year. I've only played E.C. Glass once (at the Blacksburg tournament), and it was another close loss (235-270 if I recall). They should remain pretty strong in the coming season. I think the 4A state tournament will be quite exciting next year, as there's no clear favorite. I hope my team can stick around long enough to be part of it!
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Off To See The Lizard »

At the risk of diverting this discussion a bit, I just wanted to say congratulations to all the seniors in the DC/MD/VA area who are graduating and wish them the best of luck in their college endeavors. You guys have all been really great to play against, and I am sure that I would not have worked as hard to improve at this game had it not been for some of the fantastic competition I faced from you guys.

The DC-metro area will lose some really great players this year; I just hope that the competition doesn't die down in the years to come.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by naan/steak-holding toll »

UlyssesInvictus wrote:I and Sarah graduate, but you can't expect me not to defend Sid and Nadege's (both juniors) abilities. We also have the team of freshmen that got 2nd at MSNCT together steadily gaining experience, along with some sophomores to hold the fort. I get that this is just hypothesizing on Will's part, but I hope this gives an idea of how TJ will be over the next few years.
I was unaware that Sid is a junior and may or may not have forgotten that Nadege was, as well (can't exactly recall) - thank goodness I included that caveat about potentially missing people! I think my extremely high estimation of your and Luke's abilities probably led me to underestimate you guys without them - making up for a 51/43/37 statline is going to be hard.
Kafkaeqsue wrote:Whoa, my team actually got a mention. Thanks, Will! Loudoun County has a good bit of potential, but our success next year is entirely contingent on how much I and Reese study (as the rest of the team doesn't seem to have the motivation). We'll definitely be looking to give some of the perennial Virginia powers a challenge or two in the coming season.
That's the vibe I got by looking at your team - I haven't seen you guys in a lot of stuff, and your team performance reminded me of my BCC team's performance at BHSAT last year (compare the two). My hunch was confirmed by your statement about how much your improvement will rely on one or two people studying. You guys have two crucial advantages over us, though - one, you're a junior, and have one more year of high school quizbowl (and presumably studying for it) left, and two, you seem to have teammates who are willing to study - though to be fair, that didn't seem to hold some of my teammates' performances down (major props to Teddy).

I'll probably come up with a more in-depth analysis in the near future - I don't exactly have a lot to do over the next three days.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by naan/steak-holding toll »

As it decided to rain and prevent me from going out for lunch, I decided to go ahead and expand on my peanut-gallery commentary.

TIER 1 - I expect multiple tournament wins from these teams and top-21 HSNCT finishes, at the very least.

Western Albermarle - 18.21 PPB, HSNCT. The team to beat next year. Right now, Eric (in my estimation) is comparable to Thomas Gaddy in ability and only bested by Raynor in the area, and he's relatively consistent for a guy who's usually a one-man team. As a full team, Western Albermarle made top 21 at HSNCT - I can't possibly see them doing any worse next year, and can only get better.
Maggie Walker - 17.40 PPB, HSNCT (B-Team). Add Connor to this equation and you've got a fearsome competitor here.

TIER 1.5 - I can't quite put these guys in Tier 1.5, but I fully expect to be surprised next year as one of these teams becomes insane next year, Blair-style. Most, if not all of them, are definitely capable of pulling upsets on the teams in the above tier.

Cave Spring - 16.30 PPB, HSNCT. James is very good and I expect him to lead his team to plenty of victories.
Walter Johnson - 16.15 PPB, HSNCT, with Grahme. I fully expect Sameen to improve enough to make up for losing Grahme, and then some, but I don't want to be overly optimistic. To me, the team seems Raynor-like in terms of its swinginess - they get a lot of early buzzes, but they also neg a lot. Their PPB, which lags behind quite a few teams that they beat with their fast buzzing, suggests a number of gaps that need covering as well.
Oakland Mills - No HSNCT stats to go on, but I do think I underestimated these guys - both Paul and Isaac return next year. Their team is pretty consistent, and I expect this to pay dividends if they can get consistently better.
RM - 16.76 PPB, HSNCT (B-Team). Half this team returns next year, and Jonathan mentioned that they had a few up-and-comers. I'd imagine Gabe and Roy will work hard to make up for the gigantic personnel loss this team will take.
GDS - 15.65 PPB, HSNCT. They lose Marcus but still have the bulk of their scoring power around next year, with Noah and cohort probably returning to win plenty of tournaments. Also quite a swingy team, but I expect this to change as they get even more experience and solidify their already good canon knowledge.
St. Anselm's - Yet another highly swingy team ala GDS, except even younger. I expect scary things to happen in the future.
Loudoun County - I dished on this team already, and think they'll have plenty of solid performances next year.
TJ - As Raynor mentioned, Nadege and Sid return, and they have several up-and-comers. I'm not entirely sure what to expect, but at the very least this team will be solid. Like any historically good quizbowl program, expect them to defy low expectations.
Quince Orchard - I honestly have no idea what to expect from these guys. Lawrence seems to be making a strong effort to develop a solid program.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

So I guess we might be able to disqualify St. Anselm's from the mix this year considering Tajin is moving to GDS, the idea of that is terrifying.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by The Stately Rhododendron »

Lawrence Simon wrote:So I guess we might be able to disqualify St. Anselm's from the mix this year considering Tajin is moving to GDS, the idea of that is terrifying.
I predict a negative PPG.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

I'd like to think that whatever tournaments they go to will keep two neg prizes on hand. Just in case.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

Joking aside about negging (which I have no doubt they'll do more than a drunken Raynor......), where would everyone rank a revamped GDS with Tajin and Noah in the area? They have great overlap in a lot of parts of their knowledge, but that doesn't mean that they still won't be formidable next year.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

I'd say the unimaginable amount of potential in that pairing means that for GDS the sky's the limit this year and next, and even the year after that. Though I now worry for St. Anselm's, I doubt Matt and Aidan's efforts are now all for naught but I'm not sure if we can expect anything special from them for a while now.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

So after the first major tournament of the region, I think it's pretty safe to say that this year'll be very close in terms of competition.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

Rather interestingly RM and Maggie Walker did quite well at VCU Fall, but I seriously underestimated WA, I think they are most definitely the top team in the DC area this year, especially if they go to more tournaments than last year. I was a little underwhelmed by TJ personally, but I see great potential in them and Gonzaga if they both put the time in. Of course the year is still young, QO, Blair, WJ, and OM haven't competed yet. GDS did well too and have a great amount of potential to be at the top.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Off To See The Lizard »

Lawrence Simon wrote:I seriously underestimated WA
I think you may have been the only person in the DC-Area to do this.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Lawrence Simon »

Really more terrified denial than doubt of any kind, I'd say. They literally came out of nowhere last year and already are on the top of the pack.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

Well, top of the pack is something that I'd really hesitate to say at this point about our team. With the top 4 teams having PPBs ranging from 22.48-22.84, this area is packed with teams that are national contenders this year. Gabe, as I expected, has become an incredible generalist over the summer with the departure of the rest of RM A, and his teammates give him very good support in areas that he might not be as fast in. GDS indeed has Tajin and Noah together, and while they overlap quite a bit, they have very real knowledge of their particular specialties and can easily upset top teams, as evidenced by their victory over RM. Finally, Maggie Walker is being underrated in these discussions I feel. Connor is very formidable, has very good support on his team, and they were missing Vasa at VCU Fall, which would have significantly increased their ability to compete on history questions. I still believe them to be the top team in the area at full strength so far, but as has been pointed out, WJ, OM, Blair, and QO haven't competed yet...........
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by naan/steak-holding toll »

Off To See The Lizard wrote:
Lawrence Simon wrote:I seriously underestimated WA
I think you may have been the only person in the DC-Area to do this.
The preseason rankings agree.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by VishnuRachakonda »

Hi guys:

My name is Vishnu and I am a sort-of newcomer to the world of "real" quizbowl. I've been on the team at Roosevelt since my sophomore year, but really started getting into these forums and the thick of quizbowl talk this summer. I just went through and read this once and I saw our team's name mentioned once by one of the Davidoff's. I am pretty confident that our team is set to return to at least half the activity our team enjoyed in the late 90's and early 2000's and I am planning to update our QBWiki page when I get an account. Our A team is composed of myself, two pretty bright sophomores, and an OK junior. We don't have the quizbowl culture back yet (we're still the It's Academic team in school), but I see it coming back in the next few years. I am encouraging everyone to make a forum account. I'm not such a high level player yet, but I believe our team has improved to the point of definitely being a consistent middle-bracket team at any tourney. I'm definitely the best player, but by the time 2016 rolls about we might have a top team in the DC area. I am happy to provide more info on our team to all! I want to see ER back in the scrum.

BTW, We're hoping to have a tournament November 23rd (watch out for our post soon) and we want to fraternize with our quizbowl bretheren then. I know UVA and NHBB are then, but we had to choose a date soon and the school gave us that day to use. It'll be It's Academic style and you'll see more on our official posting.

Additionally, here is our team's planned schedule for the year:

Nov 23rd: Our tournament
December 8th: Centennial Tournament
January ??: Green Eggs and Hammond Tournament
January 25th: May go to Quac at Penn
February 1: OM Tournament
Feb 8th: Is there an NAQT tournament on this day?
February 22: HSAPQ Regionals
March 8: RM Tournament
April 6: HSAPQ MD State Championship
May 3rd: UMD Spring


We can't go to RAYNOR because of our taping happening that day. Are they any other tournaments we should go to? Thanks for reading this stupidly long post!
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Important Bird Area »

VishnuRachakonda wrote: Feb 8th: Is there an NAQT tournament on this day? Are they any other tournaments we should go to? Thanks for reading this stupidly long post!
Welcome to the forums, Vishnu!

I'm not aware of any NAQT events in the DC area scheduled for February 8th, but we have questions available if anyone wants to run one.

While I'm here: no one has yet submitted a bid to host Maryland and/or DC NAQT state championships in the spring. Place a bid here (or just email us if no one bids in the next 24 hours).
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by VishnuRachakonda »

Hi Jeff!

What goes into hosting into the NAQT regional? There doesn't seem to be so much info on the NAQT site.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Important Bird Area »

Details are here.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Off To See The Lizard »

So um... RM is scary
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Beevor Feevor »

Wait, so that 24.57 ppb is legit then? That's a whole lot higher than what they put up at VCU Fall. Providing that that's their official A-team for the rest of the season, I would put them as prohibitive favorites of the region. Gabe is excellent at his topics, and his supporting players bring their ppb to a level that compares to other top teams in the nation. Is that the highest ppb on an IS-set this year? Incredibly impressive, they do get an NAQT boost, but still, wow......
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by AKKOLADE »

I don't see any glaring stat errors with their performance.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Important Bird Area »

Einhard wrote:24.57 ppb ... Is that the highest ppb on an IS-set this year?
Arcadia recorded 25.14 and Ladue 25.05.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Schmidt Sting Pain Index »

It does seem as if IS-130 was a good bit easier than 128 (I was reading). Stats seem to confirm this, as teams who played both seem to get a 2-3 PPB point boost.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by AKKOLADE »

shady jawn wrote:It does seem as if IS-130 was a good bit easier than 128 (I was reading). Stats seem to confirm this, as teams who played both seem to get a 2-3 PPB point boost.
8 teams have played both sets so far this year.

The following numbers indicate how teams did on IS-128 in comparison with IS-130 (so, a +1 means that they scored 1 full PPB better on 128):

Pilot Grove A: +6.55
Tuscumbia A: +4.20
Kellenberg A: +0.71
Phoenixville: -0.83
Richard Montgomery: -1.73
Thomas Jefferson A (VA): -2.47
Rock Bridge A: -3.02
Rock Bridge B: -4.04

The average of these values is -0.08.

So, your conclusion drawn on a small sample size of a small sample size has lead to a wrong conclusion.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by Urech hydantoin synthesis »

Grams's Go-Go Boots wrote: The following numbers indicate how teams did on IS-128 in comparison with IS-130 (so, a +1 means that they scored 1 full PPB better on 128):

Pilot Grove A: +6.55
Tuscumbia A: +4.20
Kellenberg A: +0.71
Phoenixville: -0.83
Richard Montgomery: -1.73
Thomas Jefferson A (VA): -2.47
Rock Bridge A: -3.02
Rock Bridge B: -4.04

The average of these values is -0.08.

So, your conclusion drawn on a small sample size of a small sample size has lead to a wrong conclusion.
It should be noted that Pilot Grove A and Tuscumbia A were one-man teams whose primary players did not play IS-130. Rock Bridge A essentially had the same roster for both, but Rock Bridge B was depleted for IS-128, so this information is still not conclusive in any way.
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Re: What Happens to DC-Area Quizbowl Next Year?

Post by AKKOLADE »

And it won't be until you have more than 5 teams to compare stats between.

Edit: 8 is not enough to do anything with, either.
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