Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

[Rococo A Go Go]

The actual numbers would need to be adjusted--I think UVA goes up, Yale goes down, Penn goes up, Chicago goes down, Maryland goes up, and Michigan gets added to the mix. Just to be clear, my original percentage thing was a joke.

So Reynolds isn't one of the frontrunners either?

Completely off topic, but is Reynolds the first CCCT winner to later qualify for D1 ICT? Obviously there are completely unique circumstances in this situation, but I'm not entirely knowledgeable about the pre-Charles Hang history of established players going to community colleges.

[The Ununtiable Twine]

Rob and Bernadette should start up the MCTC recruiting train to see if they can help MCTC become the first school to qualify for D1 ICT then win the CCCT. Perhaps NAQT could just extend them a bid this year and we can see who the best really is!

[Peter13]

While John is right based on Div 2 eligibility, I still thought Harvard would have a better team. Maybe that's just my high expectations of them. Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams. Matt Weiner's perform was phenomenal, and to beat teams like Maryland A shows that they are a strong team. Anyway, now with a bit of an off-topic question, I was wondering when the D-values will be complete, and we will know all of the finalists?

[ryanrosenberg]

Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams.

Matt and George, having four-year degrees already, are not eligible to play in NAQT CC competition, much like Rob and Bernadette at MCTC.

[Peter13]

Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams.

Matt and George, having four-year degrees already, are not eligible to play in NAQT CC competition, much like Rob and Bernadette at MCTC.

If that is true, then I am rather sad. I really wanted to see them play!

[Rococo A Go Go]

Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams.

Matt and George, having four-year degrees already, are not eligible to play in NAQT CC competition, much like Rob and Bernadette at MCTC.

I knew those jokers weren't real community college players!

[Peter13]

If there not, then how did they get on the team? Solve that mystery!

[The Ununtiable Twine]

Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams.

Matt and George, having four-year degrees already, are not eligible to play in NAQT CC competition, much like Rob and Bernadette at MCTC.

If that is true, then I am rather sad. I really wanted to see them play!

No, you don't. You really don't.

[Adventure Temple Trail]

People who don't understand the quizbowl world at all will fail when they try to make predictions or weighty claims about it. Please just go and learn more about how this game works and who is playing it.

[Cheynem]

I'm imploring you to actually click on that link I posted and then read through some QBWiki entries in order to avoid embarrassing yourself further.

[Auks Ran Ova]

Other people have pretty adequately covered the most things about this latest post, but...

Yes, Michigan added good backup players to Will Nediger like Siddhant Dogra (who I couldn't search up since I didn't know he was on the team, probably because he was a freshman).

Remember those SUBMIT stats I linked you earlier? Seriously, I don't want to pile on here, but if you're not looking at this year's tournament results, what are you looking at?

(If you wondering how I caculated the statistical norm, I looked at the teams and the players stats before, and compared them to the expected output, then put a percentage D-value shift of around 20%, which is an arbitrarily assigned number that I thought represented the changes in play and influx and outflow of players well).

Revealing your methodology to be "I took some numbers and then changed them arbitrarily" does not bode well for your future posts. I urge you to take the advice of everyone else who has offered it.

[Rococo A Go Go]

Oh this is cool. Thank you, community college superstar Rob Carson.

[Mewto55555]

Dude, Sid has been playing on Michigan A since the start of this school year. If I didn't know better, I'd think your lack of knowledge of his existence would imply you hadn't looked at a single set of Michigan's stats EVER before making some bullshit post claiming that they had a 1% chance of winning. Doesn't that strike you as slightly asinine?

[naan/steak-holding toll]

While John is right based on Div 2 eligibility, I still thought Harvard would have a better team. Maybe that's just my high expectations of them. Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams. Matt Weiner's perform was phenomenal, and to beat teams like Maryland A shows that they are a strong team. Anyway, now with a bit of an off-topic question, I was wondering when the D-values will be complete, and we will know all of the finalists?

To make things a bit easier for you:

Harvard's A-Team consists of players ineligible to play the D2 SCT (and they were staffing anyways) because they have already played the D2 SCT and qualified for ICT through it in the past. I can assure you that if Stephen Liu and friends played the D2 tournament, they would have easily outclassed Raynor and Vimal, who are two of best high school players from last year (have a look: 2013 HSNCT Prelims and 2013 PACE NSC prelims). Regardless, Harvard did have a very good D2 team (the best by power numbers, PPG, and PPB at their site), but Yale B managed to outplay them in two games to take the tournament.

If Vimal and Raynor make it out to ICT to play the D2 tournament there, I would not be surprised to see them win the tournament, though they can expect stiff competition from schools like Northwestern and Chicago, as well as their Northeastern rivals. Still, Harvard's D2 performance has nothing to do with their A-team's strength. You can still expect Stephen, Mark, Sriram, and Will to show up to ICT and make at least the second bracket.

[gyre and gimble]

People who don't understand the quizbowl world at all will fail when they try to make predictions or weighty claims about it. Please just go and learn more about how this game works and who is playing it.

Just weighing in on this point, but I strongly encourage everyone to stop taking this thread seriously and just let this Peter dude figure stuff out for himself, because he is clearly not internalizing any of the advice all you folks have for him. If he cares enough, he'll look up some real stats, read up on some eligibility rules, etc. If he doesn't, no one is obliged to explain it to him.

Also, by the way, it is absolutely meaningless what the actual probability Yale or UVA will win ICT is. Like, what are you going to do once you know those numbers? Laugh at UVA for failing to win despite 7:3 odds? Set up a betting system? I feel like this whole discussion is pretty useless and it is clearly not going anywhere.

Honestly, I thought this thread would die weeks ago but it just won't!

[Rufous-capped Thornbill]

why have we humored this guy for like two months of posting please stop

[Peter13]

I apologize to everyone for not properly looking at the stats of all the teams involved. To be honest I used mostly last years data, though I did look at Siddhant, but glazed over him, thinking he was worse than Saul Hankin, and really didn't think some players (like Ashvin) would not get as many points as they did. I was just trying to look through possible winners of ICT with this thread, and highlight some valuable players. I see the thread has gone to more than this, and while I always try to be upfront with what I am doing, some of you thought that I knew more than I actually did, or tried to pass off my work as anything close to reality. I am just trying to look a little at some players, and see why some teams did better or worse than expected. Please don't think that I have all the time or knowledge to look at everything and know instantly that Siddhant would do that well at SCT. Before searching up some players, I haven't even heard of him. Also, it was just my thought that Harvard would beat Yale B, even with the team they had. This was my prediction, but as you can see, I was wrong. If anyone wants to continue to talk about good teams and players, I would be happy to keep to this thread alive. If you believe the discussion has come to an end on that, then let the thread die. I am a young inexperienced quizbowler, and am just trying to learn as much as possible, but sometimes I might say too much, and mix facts with things that I have a hunch on, but am too lazy to do the research. I really like to thank you all for you wisdom in quizbowl, and just want to learn even more.