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Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:51 pm
by Cheynem
I will crosspost this on the front page of this site shortly.

This is the official announcement for the collegiate poll, late midseason edition. As explained by Matt Weiner, in the future there will be four of these--preseason, after the fall semester, after SCT/Regionals, and postseason (after the national tournaments). This year, there will only be the SCT/Regionals and postseason polls.

Here are the general guidelines:

1. Fill out a ballot, ranking the top 25 (1 to 25) collegiate teams. You must rank at least 25 teams. No incomplete ballots will be counted.

2. Send the ballots via e-mail to me (chey0004 AT umn DOT edu). I will not accept any ballots sent prior to ACF Regionals completion. I will not count any ballots that are just posted here and in fact I would strongly, strongly urge you not to publicly post your ballots in this thread.

3. You may vote for any collegiate team and any B/C/D team, what have you. Please take some time to be informed about actual B/C team composition (i.e., many teams throughout the year mix up their starting A rosters, so don't be fooled by a particularly strong Michigan B performance if Kurtis is playing on that team, etc.). You may not vote for high school teams. Anyone sending in a ballot that has voted for a high school team will be asked to submit a new ballot. You may vote for community colleges.

4. While I can't force you to adopt a particular voting philosophy, I think Matt Weiner's conception that you are "voting for how this team, at best possible strength, would do at ICT and Nationals." If you think a team would do better at one tournament than the other, than weigh that into your votes. What this means is that you are assuming these teams are playing on hard, Nationals/ICT-level questions, and that you cannot take considerations like "Oh, Team X isn't playing ICT, I'll move them down a spot." Assume everyone is playing and assume they are at full strength. By full strength, I interpret it to mean "the best team they actually played this year." For example, I've played on Minnesota teams this year, but will not be playing ACF Nationals--rank Minnesota as if I were to be playing. On the other hand, Andy Watkins (I think) is at NYU but hasn't played anything for them all year--do not rank Hypothetical Teams. Please do not vote for schools that haven't played any tournaments all year--if some basically retired player is at a school, do not vote for that school just because (I can't think of any offhand, but you know what I mean). On the other hand, you may also vote for effectively one-man teams that did compete at actual tournaments (Georgetown, MCTC) if you believe they fit the criteria for Top 25.

5. Any bizarre ballots will either be rejected or I will ask for some explanation/logic. What I mean by bizarre is just completely ignoring any results that have happened so far and would include: intentionally ignoring a team whose results have suggested they are a major contender (for example, not ranking or ranking very low teams like Penn, Michigan, Virginia), overranking teams based on "gut feelings" (Minnesota is a good team but there is nothing to suggest they are a top 3 team), and overrranking B or C teams based on unsophisticated analysis of the data.

5. Ballots will never be released. I will list the names of the people who vote unless people have a problem with this.

6. Finally, I would encourage all voters to take a little time in drafting a ballot, and especially to look beyond your own geographical region. I would especially urge voters in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and East (where the majority of voters will probably come from) to review the performances of teams in the South, West Coast, Canada, and Southwest.

If anyone has any questions on voting, eligibility guidelines, etc., please post or e-mail.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:08 pm
by Adventure Temple Trail
How long do people have after ACF Regionals to finish their ballots?

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:18 pm
by Cheynem
At least a week. Do you think more than a week is needed?

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:19 pm
by Adventure Temple Trail
Cheynem wrote:At least a week. Do you think more than a week is needed?
Probably not; I just think that giving people a hard-fast deadline (i.e. "March 1 at 11:59 PM") will help spur the collection of ballots.

While I'm busy posting, I'd like to encourage people to look at as many empirical stats as they can find when making these ballots; Jacob O'Rourke has done a really good job collecting a lot of them for A teams and the HSQuizbowl stat database will have more for B-teams that aren't to be overlooked. The data is out there.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:30 pm
by Cheynem
Yeah, I will give a hard deadline when Regionals concludes and I officially declare balloting to be open.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:27 pm
by Sima Guang Hater
Link to Jacob's statkeeping for convenience: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... sp=sharing

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 5:25 pm
by gyre and gimble
RyuAqua wrote:
Cheynem wrote:At least a week. Do you think more than a week is needed?
Probably not; I just think that giving people a hard-fast deadline (i.e. "March 1 at 11:59 PM") will help spur the collection of ballots.

While I'm busy posting, I'd like to encourage people to look at as many empirical stats as they can find when making these ballots; Jacob O'Rourke has done a really good job collecting a lot of them for A teams and the HSQuizbowl stat database will have more for B-teams that aren't to be overlooked. The data is out there.
Yeah, I think it's important for people to look at the actual stats rather than the compiled spreadsheet due to things like Michigan A and Illinois A frequently splitting up their players into two teams. So like, if you went off just SCT stats you might accidentally rank Virginia B ahead of Michigan A even though Evan will probably play on Virginia A and Michigan A should have Kurtis at Nationals.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 5:28 pm
by 1992 in spaceflight
gyre and gimble wrote:
RyuAqua wrote:
Cheynem wrote:At least a week. Do you think more than a week is needed?
Probably not; I just think that giving people a hard-fast deadline (i.e. "March 1 at 11:59 PM") will help spur the collection of ballots.

While I'm busy posting, I'd like to encourage people to look at as many empirical stats as they can find when making these ballots; Jacob O'Rourke has done a really good job collecting a lot of them for A teams and the HSQuizbowl stat database will have more for B-teams that aren't to be overlooked. The data is out there.
Yeah, I think it's important for people to look at the actual stats rather than the compiled spreadsheet due to things like Michigan A and Illinois A frequently splitting up their players into two teams. So like, if you went off just SCT stats you might accidentally rank Virginia B ahead of Michigan A even though Evan will probably play on Virginia A and Michigan A should have Kurtis at Nationals.
I do try to keep track of when teams split their A team up (I'm not always successful, though). Stephen does have a point in that looking at the stats is definitely a lot more helpful for determining teams to rank, in my opinion.

EDIT: If anyone knows of instances of when teams split up their A teams that I've missed, please feel free to let me know through a PM or email.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:23 pm
by Cheynem
I think all the Regionals mirrors are done, so I'm declaring the poll open for business. Please send completed ballots to me via e-mail. If you want to discuss in general rankings or comparisons of teams, you can do that, but I would advise not posting your ballots publicly.

Ballots are due a week from tomorrow, March 4, in the year of our Lord 2013.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:57 pm
by Fond du lac operon
For some reason my computer doesn't want to connect to the Google Doc right now, but last I checked, there were only about 26 teams listed in the summary section. There are a few that I think have legitimate top-25 cases that weren't listed; most notably, some of the stronger B teams (like Chicago's), as well as Dartmouth. This may be fixed by now, but if not, I thought I should bring it up.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:57 pm
by Fond du lac operon
Regionals 2013's missing bonus 20s made me triple-post.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:01 pm
by ryanrosenberg
Will collaborative ballots be accepted?

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:03 pm
by Cheynem
Yes, if the other rules of the ballot are followed.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:05 pm
by 1992 in spaceflight
Fond du lac operon wrote:For some reason my computer doesn't want to connect to the Google Doc right now, but last I checked, there were only about 26 teams listed in the summary section. There are a few that I think have legitimate top-25 cases that weren't listed; most notably, some of the stronger B teams (like Chicago's), as well as Dartmouth. This may be fixed by now, but if not, I thought I should bring it up.
Chicago B, Virginia B and Dartmouth A should definitely be on there. If anyone else has suggestions for top-25 fringe cases, fire away (I think Alberta does, but they are already listed on the Doc).

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:00 pm
by theMoMA
Since it's a bit tough to synthesize all of the information in the various sources and glean a complete list of the teams that should be ranked, I'm going to list, in alphabetical order, the teams that I feel deserve mention and consideration in a top-25 conversation. (The idea is that, if you start with this list, you won't leave out anyone meriting consideration.) All teams A except where mentioned. Let me know if you think I missed someone important.

Alabama
Alberta
Berkeley
Brown
Brown B
Carleton
Case Western
Chicago
Chicago B
Chicago C
Columbia
Cornell
Dartmouth
George Mason
Georgia Tech
Harvard
Harvard B
Harvard C
Illinois
Maryland
Maryland B
Michigan
Michigan State
Minneapolis Community & Technial College
Minnesota
MIT
North Carolina
Northwestern
NYU
Ohio State
Ottawa
Penn
Princeton
Rice
RPI
Rutgers
South Carolina
Stanford
Texas A&M
UC San Diego
VCU
Virginia
Virginia B
Williams
Wisconsin
WUSTL
Yale
Yale B

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:05 pm
by The Bold Ideas of Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
theMoMA wrote: Alberta
I've heard rumors that Trevor Davis is in some grad program there; is that true?

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:09 pm
by t-bar
theMoMA wrote: Minnesota
Northwestern
Hi there.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:09 pm
by Cheynem
Yes, Trevor "T-Dawg" Davis is at Alberta.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:23 pm
by The Bold Ideas of Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Cheynem wrote:Yes, Trevor "T-Dawg" Davis is at Alberta.
Ok; I know he and Sinan played some tournament a while ago, but I can't seem to find stats from it. Could someone post a link as it's probably the only thing they've played this year?

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:29 pm
by 1992 in spaceflight
merv1618 wrote:
Cheynem wrote:Yes, Trevor "T-Dawg" Davis is at Alberta.
Ok; I know he and Sinan played some tournament a while ago, but I can't seem to find stats from it. Could someone post a link as it's probably the only thing they've played this year?

This is what you want. It was MIT's mirror of Penn-ance.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:31 pm
by theMoMA
t-bar wrote:
theMoMA wrote: Minnesota
Northwestern
Hi there.
I must have copied over MIT accidentally. Thanks for catching that.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:46 pm
by AKKOLADE
Just quickly glancing at NAQT stats: maybe Case Western? I don't know if Harvard C, Williams, & UNC are as strong at harder stuff as they did at D2, but if they are, perhaps they should be considered.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:00 pm
by The Bold Ideas of Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Truman State should be probably put in that huge list also, as they just took a regs mirror title without their full A team.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:02 pm
by evilmonkey
Andrew, A&M has no business being anywhere close to ranked. Our A team this year is marginally worse than the team that placed 30th out of 32 at ICT last year.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:25 pm
by ryanrosenberg
Fred wrote:Just quickly glancing at NAQT stats: maybe Case Western? I don't know if Harvard C, Williams, & UNC are as strong at harder stuff as they did at D2, but if they are, perhaps they should be considered.
It's worth noting that the North Carolina team at SCT was missing our top player in Natan Holtzman, who was the leading scorer on a top-half NASAT team last year, as well as Peter Schultz who's a pretty solid player as well. I don't know how well we'd do on a Nationals-level set, but our full A team (Natan, Peter, Nick Neuteufel, and me) complements each other well and could make some noise at a regular difficulty tournament; unfortunately, transportation difficulties have prevented us from going to any this year.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:37 pm
by gyre and gimble
Fred wrote:Just quickly glancing at NAQT stats: maybe Case Western? I don't know if Harvard C, Williams, & UNC are as strong at harder stuff as they did at D2, but if they are, perhaps they should be considered.
The Harvard C team that played DII at SCT was the team that's been playing as Harvard B at Penn-ance and VCU Closed, i.e. Will Holub-Moorman, Mark Arildsen, and others.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:21 am
by Adventure Temple Trail
theMoMA wrote:andrew hart makes a list blah blah
Let it be known that a certain player for King's College London is coming back across the Atlantic to play ACF Nationals solo, and has played the appropriate British events to prepare...

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:19 am
by AKKOLADE
RyuAqua wrote:
theMoMA wrote:andrew hart makes a list blah blah
Let it be known that a certain player for King's College London is coming back across the Atlantic to play ACF Nationals solo, and has played the appropriate British events to prepare...
Does he have a certain set of skills?

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:51 am
by Cheynem
Is too oafish?

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:52 am
by AKKOLADE
Cheynem wrote:Is too oafish?
This are good grammared.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:06 pm
by Cheynem
Not all of us go to KENTUCKY.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:17 pm
by AKKOLADE
Cheynem wrote:Not all of us go to KENTUCKY.
Everyone has regrets in life.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:25 pm
by Cheynem
On a more serious note, not a big deal but it's easier for my eyes if you format your ballots to only write "___ A" if you are also ranking that team's B team.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:01 pm
by minusfive
Just to enable some statistical analysis of the regions, I would suggest posting the tournaments from this season here. Here are Canada's:


http://www.hsquizbowl.org/db/tournament ... all_games/ Penn-ance
http://www.hsquizbowl.org/db/tournament ... /combined/ Minnesota Open
http://www.hsquizbowl.org/db/tournament ... ark_stats/ QUARK (Canadian)
http://www.hsquizbowl.org/db/tournament ... -complete/ ACF Fall

http://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament-te ... nt_id=4748 NAQT SCT

http://www.hsquizbowl.org/db/tournaments/1254 Delta Burke mirror


I don't believe ACF Regionals stats have been posted, but Ottawa went 9-0, over McMaster (5-4), Waterloo (DII, 3-6) and Toronto (DII, 1-8)

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:33 pm
by ThisIsMyUsername
RyuAqua wrote:
theMoMA wrote:andrew hart makes a list blah blah
Let it be known that a certain player for King's College London is coming back across the Atlantic to play ACF Nationals solo, and has played the appropriate British events to prepare...
Indeed I am (attending Nationals, almost certainly solo) and have (been playing whatever British events I was eligible for). For ranking purposes (should you choose to rank me), the stats for the two tournaments I played can be found here:

IFT: http://www.hsquizbowl.org/db/tournament ... s/prelims/
VCU Closed: http://www.hsquizbowl.org/db/tournament ... und_robin/

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2013 3:18 pm
by Cheynem
There are currently 19 ballots in. Please submit more!

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:28 pm
by Cheynem
We are up to a very impressive 29 ballots. As a reminder, balloting will close at 12 PM EST, Monday, March 4th, with results posted Monday afternoon. Anyone considering sending in a ballot should still do so; there are many teams who have received votes and lively competition for rankings. I also urge people who voted in this to continue voting in subsequent editions; I'd like to keep this impressive turnout going.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 3:08 pm
by Cheynem
Here are the results. There were a very impressive 35 ballots received.

Voters: Evan Adams, Mirza Ahmed, William Alston, Bryan Berend, George Berry, Matt Bollinger, Max Bucher, Billy Busse, William Butler, Bryce Durgin, Zach Foster, Auroni Gupta, Andrew Hart, Matt Hayes, Isaac Hirsch, Daniel Hothem, Matt Jackson, Nick Jensen, Tanay Kothari, Jasper Lee, Stephen Liu, Saajid Moyen, Will Nediger, Joe Nutter, Jacob O'Rourke, Cameron Orth, Jordan Palmer, Ryan Rosenberg, David Seal, Adam Sperber, Marshall Steinbaum, Jake Sundberg, Matt Weiner, Richard Yu, and Libo Zeng

A quick word. The results are certainly far-ranging, but I tried to take a fairly generous stance regarding the acceptance of ballots. If an obvious top #6 type team was missing, I made an inquiry and I allowed people to revise ballots, but in general this poll reflects sincere opinions of voters. There are obvious regional biases, eccentric opinions, and odd picks, yet these cannot be ascribed to just a handful of ballots--almost every ballot had something that made it stand out from the others, which is what makes this exciting. All of the ballots did properly rank 25 teams.

I will post overall point totals and then the highest and lowest rankings they received on a ballot. If there is no lowest, it means that they were unranked on at least one ballot.

#1: Virginia A (873, highest: #1, lowest: #3)
#2: Penn (825, highest: #2, lowest: #5)
#3: Yale A (796, highest: #1, lowest: #5)
#4: Michigan A (758, highest: #2, lowest: #11)
#5: Illinois (756, highest: #2, lowest: #7)
#6: Chicago A (679, highest: #4, lowest: #10)
#7: Maryland A (654, highest: #5, lowest: #11)
#8: Minnesota (592, highest: #6, lowest: #20)
#9: Georgia Tech (571, highest: #6, lowest: #14)
#10: Harvard A (557, highest: #5, lowest: #17)
#11: Brown A (486, highest: #8, lowest: #23)
#12: Chicago B (441, highest: #7)
#13: MIT (360, highest: #8)
#14: NYU (307, highest: #9)
#15: Ohio State (304, highest: #8)
#16: Alabama (293, highest: #9)
#17: Columbia (230, highest: #8)
#18: Rice (224, highest: #10)
#19: Michigan State (222, highest: #12)
#20: Alberta (215, highest: #7)
#21: Berkeley (205, highest: #9)
#22: MCTC (180, highest: #9)
#23: Virginia B (139, highest: #9)
#24: Stanford (129, highest: #10)
#25: Dartmouth (128, highest: #14)

Also Receiving Votes:
VCU (83), Kings College (76), Yale B (68), Northwestern (55), WUSTL (40), Cornell (35), North Carolina (20), Brown B (13), Carleton College (10), Chipola (10), Michigan B (8), South Carolina (8), Wisconsin (5), Chicago C (4), Maryland B (3), UCSD (3), George Mason (2), Oxford (2), Valencia (2), Harvard B (1), and Ottawa (1).

Feel free to discuss and I'll open the phone lines via the IRC for the masses to weigh in.

Thanks everyone for voting. I'll cross-post this on the front page later today. Please vote in subsequent polls; I'd hate to see great turnout fall off in later editions.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 6:41 pm
by Fond du lac operon
Out of curiosity (and a rather silly desire to see this as close to the AP sports polls as possible), how many first-place votes were there for UVA and Yale? (And why did nobody end up voting Penn in first? Poor Penn...)

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 6:46 pm
by Cheynem
UVA received 34 out of 35 first place votes. Yale received the other first place vote.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 7:50 pm
by The Bold Ideas of Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
I'm quite surprised Stanford ended up so low on the list.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 8:30 pm
by Fond du lac operon
I'm kind of surprised there were only 11 teams that appeared on every ballot. While I guess I can see someone not voting for Chicago B because they're a B team (and I'm not sure they've played their likeliest nationals lineup yet), I thought MIT, NYU, Ohio State, ourselves, and probably Alberta would all be consensus top-25 teams. I guess it says something about the depth of good schools that they aren't.

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 9:54 pm
by The Ununtiable Twine
Fond du lac operon wrote:Poor Penn...
I predicted that Penn will win ICT. Unfortunately for them, I have a hard time predicting things correctly...