2006-2007 College Basketball "Haters in the House"

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vig180
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Post by vig180 »

One question that always seems to come up about now is if a team that has more quality wins is better than a team that has a better record overall. For example, Memphis has shot to the top of the polls despite only having beaten two decent teams (Kentucky and Gonzaga) while steamrolling pitiful CUSA competition. Winthrop sounds like the same deal to me, along with others like BYU, Pitt, and Nevada. In contrast, you have teams like Arizona, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, etc. that all have quality wins but also a good number of strange losses. Which kind of team works better in the tournament?

Also, what about a team like Louisville that's coming in strong with a nice winning streak to make up for a terrible start to the season? In contrast, Florida started out spectacularly but is now running haggard. Anything we can take away from last 10 games played or whatever?
Red-necked Phalarope
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Post by Red-necked Phalarope »

gotta love it when you click 'quote' instead of 'edit' and never notice
Last edited by Red-necked Phalarope on Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
Red-necked Phalarope
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Post by Red-necked Phalarope »

vig180 wrote:One question that always seems to come up about now is if a team that has more quality wins is better than a team that has a better record overall. For example, Memphis has shot to the top of the polls despite only having beaten two decent teams (Kentucky and Gonzaga) while steamrolling pitiful CUSA competition. Winthrop sounds like the same deal to me, along with others like BYU, Pitt, and Nevada. In contrast, you have teams like Arizona, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, etc. that all have quality wins but also a good number of strange losses. Which kind of team works better in the tournament?
One obvious way to separate the good 26-5 teams from the bad 26-5 teams is through margin of victory, something Ken Pomeroy uses in his Pomeroy Ratings. Memphis, apparently, has been beating up on its CUSA colleagues just as much as much as you would expect, say, UCLA to; they're a solid #11 in PR right now. Nevada, on the other hand, has been doing just enough to get by against the Louisiana Tech*s and San Jose States of the world; they're currently ranked #66, behind, among other teams, Providence, Xavier and Bradley.

There are two problems with PR as it's set up now: the obvious one, that teams may run up the score to change their rankings status, isn't really a problem at all. (Nobody but basketball sabermetricians pays attention to the Pomeroy Rankings, so why try to tinker with them?) The less obvious problem--Pomeroy gives no bonus whatsoever to the team that wins a game, besides the MOV--leads to unusual situations like 15-14 Oklahoma being ranked #29. All said, though, I trust his ratings a heck of a lot more than I do RPI. Plus his score projections are freakily accurate.

Additionally, I wouldn't really put Winthrop in the same category as Nevada, Pitt and Memphis. It's a miracle that they were able to schedule four marquee teams in the first place; the fact that they gave Wisconsin and UNC serious runs for their money should really be taken into account.

*Louisiana Tech is in the WAC? Am I missing something here?
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ValenciaQBowl
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Post by ValenciaQBowl »

The problem that good mid-majors have in getting power conference teams to schedule them is just as bad in basketball as it is in football. Teams like Florida and Kansas (just to pick two) want to play 2-3 bigtime power teams and a bunch of doormats in their non-conference slate; wins or losses against those 2-3 big teams will help their RPI much more than games against teams like Butler or Winthrop or Davidson that they very well might lose.

Not that the BCS is great shakes, but one thing I like about it is that it doesn't do its first ranking until mid-season. I wonder if b-ball scheduling would be helped by not having any official rankings until the beginning of conference play.
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The Time Keeper
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Post by The Time Keeper »

DUKE HAHAHA LAFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFO
evilmonkey
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Post by evilmonkey »

Just remember that the selection committee uses RPI to measure how good a schedule is, not how good a team is
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AKKOLADE
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Post by AKKOLADE »

evilmonkeycma wrote:Just remember that the selection committee uses RPI to measure how good a schedule is, not how good a team is
Yes, RPI is just a team the selection committee uses, along with conference standings, polls, coaches ratings, a good conference record, play at the end of the season, play away from home, strength of non-conference record, wins vs. teams in the top 50, loss of key players and conference RPIs (source: CollegeRPI.com). However, it's one of the most important things they look at. As Jerry Palm of the aforementioned site says, RPI gets teams considered, but it doesn't get them in. Only two teams that have finished in top 30 in the RPI have been left out of the tournament, which happened in 2006. The two worst ranked teams by RPI to get in New Mexico, who was 74th in 1999, and Air Force, ranked 70th in 2004. You can't dismiss RPI because it's very important.
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AKKOLADE
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Post by AKKOLADE »

I am posting bracket projections on Selection Sunday!

1. Ohio State, UCLA, Wisconsin, UNC
2. Florida, Memphis, Georgetown, Kansas
3. Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Maryland, UNLV
4. Tennnessee, Washington State, Texas A&M, Oregon
5. Texas, Creighton, Arizona, Southern California
6. Duke, BYU, Boston College, Virginia Tech
7. Virginia, Kentucky, Villanova, Marquette
8. Butler, Louisville, Notre Dame, Michigan State
9. VCU, Nevada, Drexel, Xavier
10. Vanderbilt, Purdue, Old Dominion, Syracuse
11. Indiana, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech
12. Winthrop, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Davidson
13. Pennsylvania, George Washington, Albany, Wright State
14. Long Beach, TAMU-CC, New Mexico State, Oral Roberts
15. Eastern Kentucky, Miami (OH), Delaware State, Belmont
16. Weber State, North Texas, Nigara
PIG Central Connecticut vs. Mississippi Valley State
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ValenciaQBowl
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Post by ValenciaQBowl »

I missed the selection show, but the Gators shockingly were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. Considering that in the post-game show after the SEC championship game today a couple nabobs were saying that UF might still need a Kansas loss just to be a #1 seed at all, this is a big surprise.

A cursory scan makes me think that the West is the toughest bracket, while the Midwest might be the softest.
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Matt Weiner
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Post by Matt Weiner »

Oh hay vcu-duke in the first round
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AKKOLADE
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Post by AKKOLADE »

Matt Weiner wrote:Oh hay vcu-duke in the first round
Quote due to lack of Gonzaga rage. Also, I am hoping for a VCU win so that you will have the happiest day of your life.
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Djibouti
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Post by Djibouti »

Creighton got a #10, Duke a #6, and Drexel didn't get in at all? At least Duke will lose to VCU. Neither Nevada nor Creighton got any love. i was really looking for a #13-seed Wright State and #13-seed Davidson to upset, but Wright State drewa #14-seed against Pitt and MD is going to beat Davidson. MD can either be a strong force in the NCAA Tournament, or go with a whimper versus Florida. And I was hoping for Winthrop to go far (at least Sweet Sixteen, maybe get lucky and go further) but they draw a hot Oregon team in the Round of 32, once they get past Notre Dame. Overall, my first impression is that the bracket match-up goes against upsets, but of course there will be plenty (two #14 upsets? I still haven't decided).
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