HSQBRank 2014-15

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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Considered Harmful »

Hey, sorry if this has been asked before, but I was wondering... Do you count stuff like trash tournaments (like ACRONYM for example) towards the rankings? And if so, what would the stat adjustment be for ACRONYM?
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

I'm working on updating these right now; I'll post a list somewhere once it's done.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

I've updated adjustments (in my internal spreadsheet for now) for everything except for A sets and HERMES. The 14 other adjustments are finalized. After this, I'll need to go through and update my ranking sheet, and then we'll have new rankings. These adjustments will be in use until the prenationals rankings.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by The Polebarn Hotel »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:I've updated adjustments (in my internal spreadsheet for now) for everything except for A sets and HERMES. The 14 other adjustments are finalized. After this, I'll need to go through and update my ranking sheet, and then we'll have new rankings. These adjustments will be in use until the prenationals rankings.
Will the adjustments be posted anytime soon?
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

After they're done. I promise I'll try to remember to get them posted.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Updates:

1) I am in day four of a terrible cold. I have mainly been sleeping. I plan on doing this again soon.
2) All stat adjustments have been calculated.
3) Stat adjustments haven't been posted yet.
4) I'm going through the rankings text file and updating every team's listed aPPBs (and yes, this is something I have to do manually). I've finished... 70 or something, I don't feel like counting.
5) I just realized that for whatever reason I never actually put anything in a sheet for powers only tournaments. If you're not in Georgia and you have stats for a tournament that didn't track PPB, or you are in Georgia and have a tournament that only tracked powers and it was not run on a NAQT set, please post it here.
6) I also have a sheet devoted to my OOTP14 team and I want to know why Dan Haren lost a star and a half in rating only after I signed him to a two year deal to be in my rotation darn it.

Also, complaints like "I think team X should be higher" are silly because these rankings are based off of PPBs. If you want your team to be ranked higher, answer more bonus parts.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by jonah »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:If you want your team to be ranked higher, answer more bonus parts.
Or answer the same number of bonus parts, but answer fewer tossups correctly!
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

jonah wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:If you want your team to be ranked higher, answer more bonus parts.
Or answer the same number of bonus parts, but answer fewer tossups correctly!
aw son of a :capybara:

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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:
jonah wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:If you want your team to be ranked higher, answer more bonus parts.
Or answer the same number of bonus parts, but answer fewer tossups correctly!
aw son of a :capybara:

Remember to mind your language in the hs section. - Mgmt.
but i'm on the american internet

To give this a serious response: yes, a better system could be made with doing something involving tossup conversion rate, maybe head-to-head, power rates, etc.

Unfortunately, I'm one person who is currently taking a full load of 900 level classes, working on my doctorate. I do all of the HSQBRank stuff on my own, in my spare time. This involves me manually finding stats, pasting them in an Excel sheet, manually calculating the adjustment for each set, manually creating a .txt file in which I manually type each team's name/state/previous rank/current rank/top 3 aPPBs if available, manually sorting those entries in that .txt file by aPPB while doing mental math to see if a team's second best aPPB performance overcomes the value of another team's better first best aPPB, manually copy and pasting it into a thing on my stupid Wordpress site so it'll spit it out on the Internet, and manually posting about it on Twitter and here before I manually go to bed and manually cry myself ot sleep.

The only automated portion of the entire process is using my SUPER EXCEL SKILLS to have an aPPB column next to each entry where I can use the intensively designed form of "=ORIGINAL PPB + ADJUSTMENT", only I use dollar signs around the row and column entry for the adjustment WOW. Sometimes I even get to use the ctrl+d command for that field!!!

So, yes, it'd be great if I explored accounting for a couple other factors. It'd also be great if I actually earned the PharmD I'm paying about $50k a year in tuition to get so I can actually pay back those student loans one day and die with both kidneys still in my body and not somewhere on the black market.

On a related note, I've been sitting on some work Adam Silverman did last August looking at the 2014 PACE NSC and aPPB. If I'm interpreting what he said correctly, then using max aPPB from last season would have successfully predicted 74.97% of all NSC games last year (587 of 783). Mean aPPB would have correctly predicted 71.78% (562 of 783). Max raw PPB predicted 68.20% (534 of 783), max powers 61.3% (478 of 382, with 2 ties), and mean powers 5.75% (45 of 783). I do not know if that last one is a typo. If you somehow had access to NSC PPG ahead of time, you would have predicted 78.97% correctly (616 of 783, with 3 ties).
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by jonah »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote: [a much more serious response than my post deserved]
I didn't mean to imply you ought to be doing more, or differently. Your work is great for what it is.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Gen. Winfield Scott Hancock »

I'm just curious, and please redirect me if you've answered this before, how do you determine set adjustments?
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

jonah wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote: [a much more serious response than my post deserved]
I didn't mean to imply you ought to be doing more, or differently. Your work is great for what it is.
No offense taken, I've just been sitting on that kind of post for awhile.

I wanted to make sure everyone was aware of what goes into it and why I haven't changed it too much over the years, because it's just not as simple as "push computer button beep boop bip quiz bowl stats output."
gettysburg11 wrote:I'm just curious, and please redirect me if you've answered this before, how do you determine set adjustments?
It's all based off IS sets. I find every team that's played, say, HERMES, and see if they've played an IS set. I find value of "IS Set ppb minus HERMES ppb" for each case, using each team's best performance on an IS set. I ignore obvious outliers, both in the sense of "most other differences are in the range of +0.5 to -2, but this one is -8" and "this team has done well on other sets, but scored 8 ppb on their sole IS set." I then take the average of those values. That's the adjustment.

I'm currently piling the two HSAPQ sets together, all the NAQT IS sets together, and all of the NAQT A sets together. I don't really foresee a point where I separate the NAQT sets from their difficulty level. I've separated the HSAPQ sets before and may do it again by the end of the year. I'm a loose cannon in this sense.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Maury Island incident »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote: I'm currently piling the two HSAPQ sets together, all the NAQT IS sets together, and all of the NAQT A sets together. I don't really foresee a point where I separate the NAQT sets from their difficulty level. I've separated the HSAPQ sets before and may do it again by the end of the year. I'm a loose cannon in this sense.
There's a second HSAPQ set? As far as I know, there was just one 20/20 set. If you mean the HSAPQ State Series set, that was in the 8-8-8 format, which definitely does not work for adjustments.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Rococo A Go Go »

I think of Fred's rankings similar to KenPom rankings in college basketball, which are based on offensive and defensive efficiency. There is no way to perfectly predict performance (which is why we play the season) but there is a place for a statistical ranking using the most non-biased statistics we have, which in this case tends to be aPPB. We've gotten to a point in high school quizbowl where the effective difference between 4th and 7th or 48th and 60th or whatever is not significant, and if you really think a team is better than the stats suggest then you can have opportunities to support your argument in the form of sometimes unpredictable results of national tournaments. This is at the least better than the alternative of ill-informed and biased human voters, who frequently make some pretty remarkably bad choices in how they rank teams in human polls. Fred is doing this ranking in the most objective way possible, and while it isn't perfect, it's certainly more fair than the faulty human logic of "Team X is better than Team Y because I feel like it" that plagues both the aforementioned human polls and most of the criticisms that people pull out of their behind for HSQBRank.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

quadrisecant wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote: I'm currently piling the two HSAPQ sets together, all the NAQT IS sets together, and all of the NAQT A sets together. I don't really foresee a point where I separate the NAQT sets from their difficulty level. I've separated the HSAPQ sets before and may do it again by the end of the year. I'm a loose cannon in this sense.
There's a second HSAPQ set? As far as I know, there was just one 20/20 set. If you mean the HSAPQ State Series set, that was in the 8-8-8 format, which definitely does not work for adjustments.
I've got entries for HSAPQ 50 and 53.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Maury Island incident »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:
quadrisecant wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote: I'm currently piling the two HSAPQ sets together, all the NAQT IS sets together, and all of the NAQT A sets together. I don't really foresee a point where I separate the NAQT sets from their difficulty level. I've separated the HSAPQ sets before and may do it again by the end of the year. I'm a loose cannon in this sense.
There's a second HSAPQ set? As far as I know, there was just one 20/20 set. If you mean the HSAPQ State Series set, that was in the 8-8-8 format, which definitely does not work for adjustments.
I've got entries for HSAPQ 50 and 53.
HSAPQ 50 is the US History Bee Regionals from last year, according to their website. I think 53 is this year's ACF-format set. Could someone from HSAPQ please confirm this?
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

The only tournament I have using HT50 is the UNC Tar Heel Cup.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by ryanrosenberg »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:The only tournament I have using HT50 is the UNC Tar Heel Cup.
That used 53.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Like I said, that one used #53.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

All set adjustments available at http://hsqbrank.com/2014-15-stat-adjust ... ed-382015/

New rankings might be out later today?!
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by 1992 in spaceflight »

quadrisecant wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:
quadrisecant wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote: I'm currently piling the two HSAPQ sets together, all the NAQT IS sets together, and all of the NAQT A sets together. I don't really foresee a point where I separate the NAQT sets from their difficulty level. I've separated the HSAPQ sets before and may do it again by the end of the year. I'm a loose cannon in this sense.
There's a second HSAPQ set? As far as I know, there was just one 20/20 set. If you mean the HSAPQ State Series set, that was in the 8-8-8 format, which definitely does not work for adjustments.
I've got entries for HSAPQ 50 and 53.
HSAPQ 50 is the US History Bee Regionals from last year, according to their website. I think 53 is this year's ACF-format set. Could someone from HSAPQ please confirm this?
Just confirming that Colin's right about this.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by schen »

It seems to me that Harmony should be #23 on the rankings, not a second #13.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by heterodyne »

It appears, correct me if I'm wrong, that stats from the recent Yellow Jacket Invitational were used (just judging from Solon, DCC B making large jumps.) There are teams with BPts that end in 5, which I don't think (?) should happen, in addition to DCC B's 34 ppb game, which suggests that there might be some errors there.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by GBRodgers12 »

Western Leader wrote:It appears, correct me if I'm wrong, that stats from the recent Yellow Jacket Invitational were used (just judging from Solon, DCC B making large jumps.) There are teams with BPts that end in 5, which I don't think (?) should happen, in addition to DCC B's 34 ppb game, which suggests that there might be some errors there.
There are a few minor errors in the stats that will be cleaned up as of Monday afternoon.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Western Leader wrote:It appears, correct me if I'm wrong, that stats from the recent Yellow Jacket Invitational were used (just judging from Solon, DCC B making large jumps.) There are teams with BPts that end in 5, which I don't think (?) should happen, in addition to DCC B's 34 ppb game, which suggests that there might be some errors there.
This isn't uncommon.

I've added a performance for Dougherty Valley to the rankings. I don't know why you'd publicly say you played under a pseudonym, but okay.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by scottkim »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:Updates:
5) I just realized that for whatever reason I never actually put anything in a sheet for powers only tournaments. If you're not in Georgia and you have stats for a tournament that didn't track PPB, or you are in Georgia and have a tournament that only tracked powers and it was not run on a NAQT set, please post it here.
I'm hoping there's a typo on your new spreadsheet because I'm not sure why Collins Hill's ranking dropped very significantly. We put up a similar stat line to Flowery Branch and Woodford County A at Cedar Shoals and their aPPB's from that tournament went up while ours took a huge hit. I was actually expecting our ranking to go down a little but not 60 places...

http://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament-te ... nt_id=5753

I know the process is time consuming and I appreciate the work that you've put in, but I wanted to let you know of a potential error or typo. Thanks!
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

scottkim wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:Updates:
5) I just realized that for whatever reason I never actually put anything in a sheet for powers only tournaments. If you're not in Georgia and you have stats for a tournament that didn't track PPB, or you are in Georgia and have a tournament that only tracked powers and it was not run on a NAQT set, please post it here.
I'm hoping there's a typo on your new spreadsheet because I'm not sure why Collins Hill's ranking dropped very significantly. We put up a similar stat line to Flowery Branch and Woodford County A at Cedar Shoals and their aPPB's from that tournament went up while ours took a huge hit. I was actually expecting our ranking to go down a little but not 60 places...

http://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament-te ... nt_id=5753

I know the process is time consuming and I appreciate the work that you've put in, but I wanted to let you know of a potential error or typo. Thanks!
I got your PM; hadn't had a chance to look this over yet. Gimme a few hours...
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by scottkim »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:
scottkim wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:Updates:
5) I just realized that for whatever reason I never actually put anything in a sheet for powers only tournaments. If you're not in Georgia and you have stats for a tournament that didn't track PPB, or you are in Georgia and have a tournament that only tracked powers and it was not run on a NAQT set, please post it here.
I'm hoping there's a typo on your new spreadsheet because I'm not sure why Collins Hill's ranking dropped very significantly. We put up a similar stat line to Flowery Branch and Woodford County A at Cedar Shoals and their aPPB's from that tournament went up while ours took a huge hit. I was actually expecting our ranking to go down a little but not 60 places...

http://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament-te ... nt_id=5753

I know the process is time consuming and I appreciate the work that you've put in, but I wanted to let you know of a potential error or typo. Thanks!
I got your PM; hadn't had a chance to look this over yet. Gimme a few hours...
Thanks! I wasn't sure if you had seen it.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Okay, took a second to look this over. It looks like that when I did the estimations of PPB based off of power rates, specifically based off IS sets, resulted in significant differences between what are in the current rankings and what I calculated a few minutes ago. There was no similar issue with A sets or SSNCT. In some cases, I believe the difference is small and due to new data being entered from recent NAQT tournaments. In a few cases, like Collins Hill's, it appears that this resulted in significant differences in those PPB values. Specific to Collins Hill, your two best aPPB values came from tournaments relying on this powers-to-PPB conversion. This resulted in your ranking being approximately 50 spots lower than it should have been.

I've updated the rankings to correct these mistakes and a couple others.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by GBRodgers12 »

GBRodgers12 wrote:
Western Leader wrote:It appears, correct me if I'm wrong, that stats from the recent Yellow Jacket Invitational were used (just judging from Solon, DCC B making large jumps.) There are teams with BPts that end in 5, which I don't think (?) should happen, in addition to DCC B's 34 ppb game, which suggests that there might be some errors there.
There are a few minor errors in the stats that will be cleaned up as of Monday afternoon.
These are all fixed and uploaded.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

If you would help me fill out https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing I would really appreciate it.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Gen. Winfield Scott Hancock »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:If you would help me fill out https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing I would really appreciate it.
I'll put in our info this afternoon when I have a computer to work with since my phone won't do.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Thanks to everyone that's helped out so far; my emailing schools will be a slow process, but it's certainly one I'm doing my best to work through as I can.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Can anyone help me out with PALCS, St. Paul's Episcopal, St. Louis Park and Gadsden City?
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Joshua Rutsky »

Help you with stats? I can tell you Gadsden hasn't released them yet. I will look into it. The numbers may not be entirely useful, however, as they played GSAC but using Alabama's State format, meaning that they played two bonuses per toss-up with bounceback.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

No, contact info.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Important Bird Area »

Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:Can anyone help me out with PALCS, St. Paul's Episcopal, St. Louis Park and Gadsden City?
Check your inbox.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

bird bird bird bird bird wrote:
Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon wrote:Can anyone help me out with PALCS, St. Paul's Episcopal, St. Louis Park and Gadsden City?
Check your inbox.
Thanks, buddy. Tossed some sunflower seeds out in the backyard for you.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Wrote about the SSNCT real quick: http://hsqbrank.com/2015/04/25/quick-ssnct-update/
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Set adjustments:

Code: Select all

DEES	8.6
Penn Bowl	8.49
ICTD2	6.33
MUT	5.54
MD Spring	4.03
ACF Fall	2.79
BHSAT	2.61
Prison Bowl	2.56
SCT D2	2.49
HFT	2.31
SSNCT14	1.75
BISB	1.19
VTACO	1.11
HERMES	0.91
BELLOCO	0.85
HSAPQ	0.6
GSAC	0.46
Potatoville	-0.03
SSNCT15	-0.37
A Set	-3.18
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by High Dependency Unit »

When will the next set of rankings be released?
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

When I'm done.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

I'm about 90% finished. Once this weekends stats are up and I double check a few things, the pre-nationals top 250 will be posted.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

New and final regular season rankings. http://hsqbrank.com/2015/05/18/2015-pre ... s-5182015/
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Upon review, the stats I have for BISB seem very shaky. I'll have to drop those from consideration and rework the rankings.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by The Polebarn Hotel »

North Babylon is from NY.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by AKKOLADE »

Crazyflight wrote:North Babylon is from NY.
That's been corrected, as well as the issues with the main BISB site's stats.
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Re: HSQBRank 2014-15

Post by Dead Parrot »

There are two Livingston B's (#'s 181 and 191).
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