Applying player stats

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rchschem
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Applying player stats

Post by rchschem »

I am interested in determining a P/N break point below which I can tell a player to sit on his hands. I know it's dependent on the question and the player, the team and opponent's bonus conversion in a match, the score, and probably some other factors.

This would be a crude guideline because of course the choice to power is a judgment call. But sometimes, as a coach, I want to be able to tell a kid to not take the risk because I know he tends to miss. Or maybe this is only a grossly predictive stat?

Right now I am thinking a successful power earns a team X points based on historical bonus conversion, but a neg costs the team Y points (both in hypothetical lost points and hypothetical gained points by the opponent). If Y is bigger than X, it's not worth it.

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Re: Applying player stats

Post by Windows ME »

I'm tempted to say from experience [re: TU/N ratios]:

- if you're the best player on your team, no worse than 2 to 1 [ideally should be higher than this]
- else 3 to 1.

The latter makes sense, I'm not sure about the number for the former. 8 TU and 4 negs is a horrible ratio. Maybe (2-to-1 minus one neg)? ie. 8/3 6/2 4/1 kindof thing? 4-2 isn't bad though. Maybe a neg cap? ie. If you're the best player, once you hit 2 negs start being conservative?

Anyway I think for sure your best player needs to be more aggressive than everyone else on the team, and can afford to neg a little bit more. If you're supporting players are negging heavily it is not in the best interest of the team.

My $0.02
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by Cubfan125 »

I've always tried to aim for about 5 to 1.
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by touchpack »

Looking at some top college teams, I would say successful leading contributors tend to be no worse than 3:1 gets/neg, where successful supporting players tend to be no worse than 5-6:1 (obviously some players neg more or less than this though since there are a multitude of winning buzzer strategies in quiz bowl--I would hesitate to apply any hard rule)
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Charles Martel
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by Charles Martel »

I've seen tournaments where successful players had a 2:1 ratio, and one of the players on our IMSA A team usually has around a 20:1 ratio.
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by rchschem »

Sorry--I wasn't clear. I am looking at power to neg ratio (P/N) not just tossup/neg ratio. Of course this would only apply to tournaments where powers are possible.
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by Urech hydantoin synthesis »

Oh, in that case, it varies a lot more. For example, while a P/N ratio of 1:3 may not seem good, a player with a statline of 2/34/6 can be very valuable (albeit lacking deep knowledge), but a player who has the same P/N ratio can have a statline of 3/0/9, in which case he/she is definitely negging too much.
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by Charles Martel »

I consider (P+N)/(P+T+N) to be a good estimate of aggressiveness.
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by bag-of-worms »

One must also consider that an extremely conservative player can rack up many powers, for he or she simply knows a lot.
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Re: Applying player stats

Post by Francis the Talking France »

Usually though, the players the rack up the most powers also tend to neg the most, because they believe they are most knowledgeable and buzz most aggressively, and thus neg more than other players.
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