btressler wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 10:58 am
Mike Bentley wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 5:45 pm
The hotter take is that bonuses end up making a difference in a very small number of games.

I've often wondered if anyone has analyzed a tossup/bonus tournament to see how the records change if only the tossup points were in play. Does anyone have data to share?

I'm late to this thread. But in as much as I've always been bothered by the "bonuses don't matter very much" sentiment, I wanted to give a little data to show why this is very much not so. Below is a list of games from the top brackets of the last ten national collegiate championships whose results would have been altered by eliminating bonuses. This list is not short at all. (I did this quickly, so there are almost certainly some mistakes or omissions. Apologies in advance for those.) Furthermore: in two or three cases, this changes what the finals situation would have been; in one case, the result of a tiebreaker could have changed the winner of the title; and in two cases, this automatically changes who would have won the title!

2019 Nats
Berkeley B would have beaten Chicago A in Round 10

Columbia would have beaten Minnesota A in Round 13

Had either of these things happened, Columbia would have cleared the field.

2018 Nats
Northwestern would have beaten Cambridge in Round 10

Chicago A and Penn A would have tied in Round 14

2017 Nats
Michigan and Oxford A would have tied in Round 6

Columbia and Chicago A would have tied in Round 7

Oxford A would have beaten Chicago A in Round 10

Michigan and Yale A would have tied in Round 14

Had Michigan lost either tiebreaker, Maryland would have had the advantage in the final.

2016 Nats
Yale A would have beaten Maryland A in Round 1

Illinois and Oklahoma would have tied in Round 3

Columbia A would have beaten WUSTL in Round 7

Berkeley A would have beaten Michigan A in Round 9

Louisville would have beaten Yale A in Round 10

MIT B would have beaten Yale A in Round 11

Columbia A would have beaten Yale A in Round 13

MIT A and Minnesota A would have tied in Round 13

Illinois would have beaten Oxford in Round 17

Michigan A would have had the disadvantage in the final.

2015 Nats
Chicago A would have beaten Penn A in Round 20

Maryland would have beaten Chicago A in Round 22

2019 ICT
Maryland A and MSU would have tied in Round 7

Berkeley A would have beaten Columbia A in Round 7

Amherst would have beaten OSU in Round 8

Minnesota A and Columbia A would have tied in Round 13

Columbia A and OSU would have tied in Round 14

If Columbia had won both tiebreakers, they would have won the whole tournament, because the first finals match would have been the only finals match.

2018 ICT
Ohio State would have beaten Yale in Round 7

Penn A would have beaten WUSTL Round 8

Chicago A would have beaten Michigan A in Round 7

Berkeley A would have won the tournament, because the first finals match would have been the only finals match.

2016 ICT
North Carolina would have beaten Chicago A in Round 2

Yale A would have beaten Columbia A in Round 9

MIT A would have beaten Yale A in Round 10

Chicago A could not have won the tournament.

2015 ICT
Stanford A would have beaten Chicago A in Round 7

EDIT: Making corrections as I notice errors