Search found 196 matches

by Peter13
Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:03 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ICT Prediction Thread 2014
Replies: 22
Views: 8205

Re: ICT Prediction Thread 2014

Inkana7 wrote:Lmao
What's so funny?
by Peter13
Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:51 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ICT Prediction Thread 2014
Replies: 22
Views: 8205

Re: ICT Prediction Thread 2014

Mewto55555 wrote:
Peter13 wrote: Matt Weiner and Marshall Steinbaum... end up arguing
Nope, never would happen.
I don't know whether this is sarcastic or not, but this was a reference to the recent Protest Rules thread.
by Peter13
Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:48 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ICT Prediction Thread 2014
Replies: 22
Views: 8205

Re: ICT Prediction Thread 2014

I will put in my thoughts about the rankings: 32. Florida - It's March Madness, but not the good type. My newest information graph clearly shows a negative relation between Gator's basketball and Florida's quizbowl success. 31. Claremont College - This team is full of jacks of all trades, masters of...
by Peter13
Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:49 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: General discussion
Replies: 25
Views: 4295

Re: General discussion

Speaking about science, I don't know if anyone felt this, but I definitely felt one or two difficulty cliffs. Of course I am not trying to come across as being overly critical, but I do try to explain improvement if I can. I am weak on Literature, so maybe I didn't notice those clues as much. I also...
by Peter13
Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:34 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: General discussion
Replies: 25
Views: 4295

Re: General discussion

In the set that I played, there were more than a couple instances of "According to Wikipedia" or the like, and I found that rather annoying. Also, while the pack was mostly well written, I do feel that there were one or two examples of rather large difficulty swings in different rounds.
by Peter13
Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:18 pm
Forum: High school area archives
Topic: 2014 ONQBA Provincial Championship (3/22/2014)
Replies: 16
Views: 6641

Re: 2014 ONQBA Provincial Championship (3/22/2014)

Sorry, thank you, I think I should clarify. What I meant to say is that it is good to see a team defeat Lisgar after its prominence of years past, and it's much better than last year's "LIsgar vs Colonel By Bowl".
by Peter13
Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:50 pm
Forum: High school area archives
Topic: 2014 ONQBA Provincial Championship (3/22/2014)
Replies: 16
Views: 6641

Re: 2014 ONQBA Provincial Championship (3/22/2014)

I would like to thank Ben Smith for running a great tournament that was in line with the excellence we have come to expect from the ONQBA. I like to also thank all the great moderators and staffers that I got to work with, and to all the teams both near and far, for coming to the tournament. This is...
by Peter13
Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:23 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT at uWaterloo (15th March, 2014)
Replies: 19
Views: 9050

Re: MUT at uWaterloo (15th March, 2014)

I would like to thank everyone at the UW for their great organizing, moderators, scorekeepers, and everyone else who I haven't mentioned. My two special mentioned are for Huma's literature addition, and especially Brian, who throughout the chaos that I had, was firmly calm and knowledgeable, and hel...
by Peter13
Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:41 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ACF Regionals Eastern Canada @ Toronto (2/22/14)
Replies: 32
Views: 12585

Re: ACF Regionals Eastern Canada @ Toronto (2/22/14)

I just want to extend my thanks to Rein, Rico, and all the great staffers and players who helped make the tournament. I feel that considering how things transpired, it was generally well run in all areas.
by Peter13
Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:37 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I apologize to everyone for not properly looking at the stats of all the teams involved. To be honest I used mostly last years data, though I did look at Siddhant, but glazed over him, thinking he was worse than Saul Hankin, and really didn't think some players (like Ashvin) would not get as many po...
by Peter13
Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:10 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

If there not, then how did they get on the team? Solve that mystery!
by Peter13
Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:57 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams. Matt and George, having four-year degrees already, are not eligible to play in NAQT CC competition, much like Rob and Bernadette at MCTC. If that is true, then I am rather sad. I really wanted to see the...
by Peter13
Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:40 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

While John is right based on Div 2 eligibility, I still thought Harvard would have a better team. Maybe that's just my high expectations of them. Anyway, I still think Reynolds are a team that really have deserved to upset the Florida teams. Matt Weiner's perform was phenomenal, and to beat teams li...
by Peter13
Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:02 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

For me what is really surprising is the fact that Harvard didn't take one of the top spots in Div 2. Since they completely changed there team, I would understand if they we not as good, but slumping behind some of the teams really surprised me. Yes, Michigan added good backup players to Will Nediger...
by Peter13
Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:54 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: NAQT Canada SCT-February 8, 2014
Replies: 32
Views: 30022

Re: NAQT Canada SCT-February 8, 2014

I also want to thank the team organizers, as in the few tournaments I have been apart of, this is one of the best run, if not the best. I like that all the moderators were very well versed in the practice, and knew what to do when issues over questions happened. I like to thank the teams that I play...
by Peter13
Wed Feb 05, 2014 2:57 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Bryce and John, I both thank you on your commentary. I cannot find the stats for ACF right now, but for NAQT, of the last five winners (after some redistribution of medals) there does seem to be a link between PPG, PPB, and powers. Sure, if you take a single stat it won't do much good, but taking ju...
by Peter13
Tue Feb 04, 2014 1:21 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I agree with what you are saying Jon, but it depends on what we consider an upset. I agree that we likely won't see Michigan or Chicago win, though they could cause an upset. But what is an upset? Would Yale winning be an upset? Most people put Virginia as the favourites, but one would not be surpri...
by Peter13
Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:07 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I agree that maybe I shouldn't have posted my numbers now, as looking back I didn't use as much data as I would have liked. I understand the differences between the playoff system, and even went so far as to account for round robin and Swiss formats. Many sports like Chess use such a format. I accou...
by Peter13
Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:17 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

What do you mean pulling numbers out of thin air? If you mean those percentages, I didn't just randomly pick numbers, I used a basic model to deduce it. I have never stated I am knowledgeable in knowing what members are playing at one time, so it is hard to predict with much precision. But Bryce, yo...
by Peter13
Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:19 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Thanks so much Rob! I tried searching their names and see if they were in any tournaments closer than the last ICT or ACF, but I either get told it is too general or get into random discussions that are not about the players themselves involved in the tournaments. What would you recommend I do to ma...
by Peter13
Fri Jan 31, 2014 5:45 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

That is a good method to use, but I have trouble as it is hard knowing and recording all the signatures of the different players. In my analysis so far of team strength (understanding that these numbers are very rough). I put Virginia at 46%, Yale at 28%, Penn at 16%, Illinois at 4%, Chicago at 3%, ...
by Peter13
Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:16 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

You're right, I don't look at enough recent tournaments. But the problem for me is to know whether or not the tournaments actually mean anything. Sometimes for a Hybrid tournament or something, a side doesn't have their top players, but when its ACF Regionals or SCT, they put their best people forwa...
by Peter13
Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:11 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Minnesota lost 3/4 of its lineup? I am sorry, I apologize profusely, I did not know. I do follow some of the larger team somewhat, but I thought Minnesota had just lost one or two players. I didn't know all the people that Minnesota lost. I cannot research every team in detail, so sometimes I use la...
by Peter13
Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:38 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

While Andrew, you have a lot more experience then me at this, I feel as though a lot of people don't understand how luck can play a roll. Looking at other tournaments too, I think that 6% may be a bit high for the four team, but I definitely think it is higher than 0.5% that some have given teams li...
by Peter13
Thu Jan 30, 2014 8:12 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I think that 6% sounds about right. That is about a 1 in 17 chance. I think there hasn't been enough empirical evidence to say that this number is off. I really believe that it sounds at least plausible, and people on the forum have a tendency to underestimate luck. Even if this is only 6% chance of...
by Peter13
Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:20 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Think of it like this, an upset is relative. I have been going overboard on sports analogies, but I think we all can imagine that in many if not all things, people are of all different skills. Therefore, if a team is 55% percent to win a game, would that be considered an upset. Most people would thi...
by Peter13
Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:45 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I think you definitely counted more upsets, but doubt that it was many more. Some teams might of over performed in one game, and overall had a lower PPG because they were destroyed by a very high level opposition, and it fudged the numbers a bit. I mean, what I would do is more in line with looking ...
by Peter13
Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:49 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Brendan, how are you counting upsets? Because one could say that Penn beating Virginia last year was an upset, while others would say it wasn't because of a certain threshold. Do you have a threshold (e.g. If this team gets more than 50 points per game difference, it is then classified as an upset)?...
by Peter13
Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:47 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

gamegeek2 wrote:This way you use the log5 formula to determine who wins how many questions in a given category.
Can you explain why the log5 is better than other ranking systems, and also how to turn log5 ratings into percentages? Thanks, and keep up the discussion. Things are getting interesting.
by Peter13
Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:03 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Thanks for the reply Ryan. I really think changes in teams say a lot. While Illinois came in 2nd in 2012, they brought in some players to strength up Ike Jose, which was there only major scorer in SCT. There are a couple surprises that sometimes happen, but nothing major. Of course, I did feel VCU s...
by Peter13
Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:01 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

John's post is very good, and looking at the stats and comparing what he said, I take back two of three things I stated earlier and will freely admit they are bad examples. I still can not get over Penn not winning once, since I feel as though they have had a good team for quite a while and should h...
by Peter13
Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:26 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I take dark horse to mean a team that wins that one would not think they would do such a feat the previous year. You are right, Minnesota is not a good example, but there are some examples of good teams coming up the ranks from somewhere like 28th to 14th, and in some way I think that's an achieveme...
by Peter13
Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:00 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

There is no true dark horse in sports either. Of course everyone has favourites, but I still feel that people have their preferences and rarely give up and coming teams a chance. Penn has never won, given that they field teams that I believe are deserving of the chance to win. Also, who saw Minnesot...
by Peter13
Wed Jan 22, 2014 2:31 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Ukonvasara wrote:
Peter13 wrote:how powerful a side may be.
Peter13 wrote:top half of the table
Peter13 wrote:I am more into soccer
It was a joke, mostly.
Very funny sir, very funny.
by Peter13
Wed Jan 22, 2014 2:09 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Wait what? I am not using soccer terms to describe quizbowl, I am just trying to use statistical analysis that has been done on other sports like soccer to fully understand statistical advantage. If I had Yale and Harvard playing NAQT, questions unknown, what is the chances of getting a victory. Is ...
by Peter13
Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:23 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Ok, does anyone else have any other advice in calculating this? I think I could track down some sort of stats, while not perfect, can help us learn more about the actual percents of quizbowl rate, and how powerful a side may be. Does anyone have their guesses as to how good all the teams are in a di...
by Peter13
Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:55 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I agree with what you are saying. That is why I haven't started my distribution chart until I get others opinions. I don't believe that people are flawless either, as many times people overestimate favourite teams. I want to make sure I just have a rough idea at quizbowl and the percentages involved...
by Peter13
Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:37 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I think that is completely cohesive in the discussion. Is the log5 formula like ELO ratings? I wish I could hear from others about the best formula to use when trying to make a distribution chart. Also, I would like to know if there are any major teams that have undergone any major changes. Keep the...
by Peter13
Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:40 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Thanks for your replies. I actually think quiz bowl is easier than many other sports as it is very statistics based. A game like baseball seems to be the easiest to set up series of equations, quiz bowl takes many aspects that are easily documented that many other sports did not do (before the intro...
by Peter13
Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:10 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I agree to you with a certain respect, that quiz bowl works differently than sports teams and other competitions. But I feel that there are many things that they share. They all have statistical percentages, upsets, points gained, and different positions (i.e. categories) that one may feel they are ...
by Peter13
Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:54 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

Thanks for your post. A lot of times people overestimate the chance of an outsider to win compared to the top teams. As someone with a bit of statistical background, I feel that I know this far too well. You are right that this is not like many sports. I do take this as more college sports or top so...
by Peter13
Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:36 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I am not really familiar with anything less than Div 2, and even then, its just a passing glance. I really feel like Div 1 is the major trophy to be won. For CCCT is there any team other than Chipola or Valencia that I even know that has a shot at winning it? Anyway, to refer to win shares (I had to...
by Peter13
Sun Jan 19, 2014 10:40 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

So I do see how this isn't like a world cup or any real North American sports, which adopt a playoff system. I think its more like promotion-relegation soccer leagues. Sure there is almost no way for a bottom league team from La Liga to beat Barcelona, like there is almost no chance for my school to...
by Peter13
Sun Jan 19, 2014 3:57 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Re: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

what is the actual percentage of any team winning? Somewhere around 100%, I imagine! Haha, very funny. I mean like a breakdown chart of the chart. I did this once for the world cup by looking at articles, teams form, bookmakers, and highly valueable opinions (not like the media talking heads, real ...
by Peter13
Sat Jan 18, 2014 3:51 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Likelihood of NAQT Champion.
Replies: 116
Views: 24654

Likelihood of NAQT Champion.

I was randomly looking over D-values and the like, while somehow simultaneously looking at odds for some games. And this had me thinking, what would the odds for each team winning be? I know everyone picks and chooses there favourites, and Yale, Virginia and Penn are the favourites, but what is the ...
by Peter13
Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:51 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: *CONFIRMED* ACF Fall 2013 @McMaster
Replies: 34
Views: 13599

Re: *CONFIRMED* ACF Fall 2013 @McMaster

I must say that must be one of the best if not the best improvised tournament I have ever been to, in my insignificant amount of tournaments attended. For a power: Name this country that was formed on February 14, 1854, home originally to the Tswana people, and though it was considered a politically...