ICT Prediction Thread

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ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Smuttynose Island » Tue Mar 20, 2012 7:27 pm

In the absence of one of these existing, I've gone ahead and made one. Below are my, probably incorrect, predictions for the 2012 ICT, with bad commentary.

NAQT ICT:

Locks for the Top Bracket:
1. UVA A
Although this team’s stats have tended to be somewhat lower than Yale’s, especially on mACF questions, I think that this teams’s very strong performance on DI SCT, without Tommy, is much more indicative of how well they will do at ICT. Matt Bollinger and company’s consistent ability to power more questions than other teams, along with David Seal’s NAQT boost, makes this team the front runner, although not by much, at ICT in my opinion.
2. Yale A
Last year’s ACF Nationals champions have done much this year to prove their deservingness of the title, if anyone ever questioned it. Consistently putting up the highest PPBs on sets, sometimes over 2 points higher than the next highest team, this team has deep coverage of the humanities, including almost unbeatable music knowledge. If they can come up big and have Ashvin or others combine for over half of the science questions in the match, they’ll be almost impossible to beat.
3. Maryland A
This team has gone toe-to-toe with UVA all year, even managing to beat them twice at GWU’s mirror of ACF Regionals, thus giving them the tournament victory. Chris Ray is a frightening player with the power to absolutely take over a game, although he also has the power to neg his team out of a game. SteveJon gives this team a distinct science advantage over both UVA and Yale, plus both Dan Puma and Chris Ray get NAQT boosts, which will make this team very competitive, although I don’t think that’s quite enough to push them over the above two teams, although I won’t be surprised if it does.
4. Harvard
Last year’s ICT winner, I don’t think that they will repeat the feat and go for the trifecta because of their loss of Andy, who got a huge NAQT boost. With that being said, this team has shown their ability to regroup from that loss by adding the former State College players Graham Moyer and David Liu. These additions, along with Dallas’ NAQT boost should be more than enough to put Harvard into title contention, although I ultimately think that their lack of a distinct knowledge advantage over the other top teams will have them falling short this year.

Contenders for the Top Bracket:

5. Michigan A
This team has produced solid tournament results throughout the year, and although Kurtis is their best player, everyone on their team is a solid contributor. Doubts about this team’s ability to avoid upsets do exist, although it is their upset proneness that also lets them take down the few teams which are “better” than them. If they can avoid the upset, then one shouldn’t be surprised to see them competing for spots 1-4 at ICT.
6. Penn A
Eric Mukherjee is easily the best science player in the country, which gives him a distinct advantage over any team that he faces. With that being said, Penn’s ability to win ICT hinges on Eric sweeping or almost sweeping the science in Penn’s games against top teams, plus his teammates ability to chip in. Unfortunately, these two things have yet to happen in unison frequently over the course of the year and it is doubtful that that will change at ICT. With that being said, they have more than enough firepower to make a deep ICT run and play the role of upset.
7. UCSD
Auroni Gupta is one of the elite players in QB right now. UCSD’s stats at a lot of tournaments this year have been depressed by them either lacking Chris or Auroni, but both with both of them at ICT they stand a great chance at making the top bracket and even upsetting multiple top four teams.
8. Minnesota
Andrew Hart and Mike Cheyne both return for a team that made it to the ICT finals last year, which gives this team two proven contenders. Having never actually seen this team play, I can’t say that much about them, but I think that the fact that Mike and Andrew have played in big game situations before will help this team in the long run as they’ll maintain a level-headedness throughout the tournament.
9. Brown
I don’t have much to say about this team as I’ve never seen them play, but their SCT stats, despite having gone 5-5, point to a team that can go far at ICT. They do appear to be a tier below the top four teams although they could upset a few teams, but seem to be just as likely to be upset themselves.
10. Chicago A
Chicago A, just as it is every year, is a very strong team. Shantanu gave Chicago a big boost when he decided to come back to play, although the impact hasn’t been quite as large as some thought it might be and he won't be able to play ICT. Even so, with the ability to field two very deep teams, it will be interesting to see what lineup they decide upon for ICT, although any permutation will have a great shot at making the top bracket.

Second Bracket Teams, with an outside shot at the Top Bracket:

11. MIT
Neil Gurram is a solid NAQT player and Josh, isn’t a bad player either. This team should be fairly strong on science, which gives them a leg up over many other teams. This team definitely has upset potential when they play the bottom end of the contenders category, if their SCT performance is anything to go by, so they could play the role of spoiler, but most likely nothing more.
12. Ohio State
This team has arguably the most balanced scoring in the game. This balanced scoring makes it very difficult for them to be upset, which means that a slip up by a team above them could easily hand this team a spot in the top playoff bracket. Additionally, this team could upset one of the teams in the category above them if each of their players grab 2-3 TU in that game. Unfortunately, they’ve not shown the ability to defeat with any of the elite teams over the course of the year.
13. Georgia Tech
Will Butler is a great QB player and he is supported well by Gregory Peacock. Will’s science knowledge will give him a leg up against many teams, but this team just doesn’t have the firepower in other areas to truly control their shot at a top playoff bracket spot.
14. Columbia
Much like Ohio State, Columbia is a very solid team this year that consistently produces good results on sets. With less balanced scoring than Ohio State, this team is slightly more upset prone and probably less likely to pull off an upset against a better team, which is why I have them below Ohio State.
15. VCU
This team has three solid players in Sean Smiley, Cody Voight and George Berry. George should give them a distinct NAQT boost at ICT, although most likely not enough to push them into the top bracket. Expect them to make some noise in the second playoff bracket though.
16. Chicago B
What their lineup will be no one quite knows, but no matter what it is, it should make for a good team.
17. Illinois
This team is largely the Ike Jose show now that Mike Sorice has been declared ineligible. Their stats are solid, but not great, and I’m not willing to place a team that relies so heavily on one player above more balanced teams with roughly equal stat lines.

EDIT: Editted for dumbassery.
Last edited by Smuttynose Island on Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby The Ununtiable Twine » Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:15 pm

When considering where teams will end up in the competition, you should first make sure all of the teams that you rank are actually attending: http://naqt.com/ict/2012/invitations-di.html
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby mhayes » Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:27 pm

Smuttynose Island wrote:1. UVA A
Although this team’s stats have tended to be somewhat lower than Yale’s, especially on mACF questions, I think that this teams’s very strong performance on DI SCT, without Tommy, is much more indicative of how well they will do at ICT. Matt Bollinger and company’s consistent ability to power more questions than other teams, along with David Seal’s NAQT boost, makes this team the front runner, although not by much, at ICT in my opinion.
2. Yale A
Last year’s ACF Nationals champions have done much this year to prove their deservingness of the title, if anyone ever questioned it. Consistently putting up the highest PPBs on sets, sometimes over 2 points higher than the next highest team, this team has deep coverage of the humanities, including almost unbeatable music knowledge. If they can come up big and have Ashvin or others combine for over half of the science questions in the match, they’ll be almost impossible to beat.



I think Yale wins the ICT this year, with UVA or Harvard finishing second.

It's hard to argue with the rest of your predictions. However, I think Alabama deserves some mention. They finished 14th last year and they have significantly improved.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby marnold » Wed Mar 21, 2012 12:53 am

My top bracket:

Virginia - Gautam comes down to read the top bracket where he repeats his comically bitter observation that not every team can afford a David Seal. Fortunately, Matt Bollinger CAN afford David Seal, as Matt spends his hobo emergency fund to pay for gas money for David's car. He's rewarded with a championship, though he also suffers permanent nerve damage in his legs while sitting for hours in the back of David's car filled with piles of fast food bags and unread Saroyan novels.

Maryland - Three things about Chris Ray's luggage coming to this tournament: it has enough space for the ICT championship trophy, it includes a locator to try to keep Arun from losing his wallet, and it contains a slip of paper with the address 3425 N. Southport Avenue, Chicago, IL. Two out of three ain't bad, as Meatloaf might say.

Yale - Matt Jackson distributes signed headshots before every round, much to the delight of TJ B, who appear as a surprise entry after cross-enrolling in Criminology courses at Westwood College.

Chicago A - Chicago is officially eliminated from contention in a controversial match after Marshall is credited with a neg when Chad Kubicek refuses to accept his spittle-flecked rant as an acceptable blitz on a Virginia geography tossup. This is particularly frustrating for Daichi, who gave Marshall a talking to after he was negged in the prelims for buzzing ironically.

Penn - As an act of contrition for Penn Bowl, Eric plays the tournament in a burlap sack. Penn Bowl trash editors are, predictably, not present.

Michigan - Surely the strangest match of the upper bracket is the match played on 9 TUs between Yale and Michigan in Rob Carson's room as Bryan Berend and Rob insist on talking about ska and comparing wardrobes on the clock for most of the first half.

Harvard - The last few rounds see Harvard playing shorthanded after the State College players are held for questioning by the police. The tournament is baffled why the police would arrest them, until they realize that their choice of pseudonyms of "D.O." and "Trumere" might have been ill-advised.

Minnesota - After winning their prelim bracket, the wheels really come off for Minnesota in the afternoon after Mike Cheyne inexplicably negs the first tossup of the playoffs on the Anschluss with "the car accident that killed Ernie Kovacs."
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Papa's in the House » Wed Mar 21, 2012 1:27 am

marnold wrote:Minnesota... the wheels really come off for Minnesota [when Andrew Hart resorts to punching another wall after losing to Illinois again. This time he breaks his hand and proceeds to lose every future buzzer race.]
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby gyre and gimble » Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:35 am

Graham and David are playing DII.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Mechanical Beasts » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:14 am

Papa's in the House wrote:
marnold wrote:Minnesota... the wheels really come off for Minnesota [when Andrew Hart resorts to punching another wall after losing to Illinois again. This time he breaks his hand and proceeds to lose every future buzzer race.]

Have you confused your And[rew|y]s, or is our name more wall-punching-prone than I'd known?
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby theMoMA » Wed Mar 21, 2012 1:23 pm

It was a bulletin board.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby grapesmoker » Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:26 pm

Chicago's not going to place anywhere if they don't turn in a packet.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Cheynem » Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:32 pm

For...ICT?
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Smuttynose Island » Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:33 pm

grapesmoker wrote:Chicago's not going to place anywhere if they don't turn in a packet.

Unless I'm horribly mistaken, I don't think that Chicago's appearance at ICT is dependant on them submitting a packet to NAQT.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby grapesmoker » Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:36 pm

Whatever, I'm a busy man, I can't be bothered to read things.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby something similarly dumb » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:03 pm

Here's my rankings:

1. UVA A
Recovers well after a rocky start where they neg the first 10 tossups against Texas A&M. After Matt negs the 11th question telling everyone to stop negging, they come back and win the game and do not neg for the rest of the tournament.

2. UMD A
Chris Ray uses the controversial strategy of poking Arun to force him to buzz in, leading to a 56/12/3 statline for Arun.

3. Yale
Underperforms due to Matt Jackson taking an ideological stand and negging every question that uses the word "sees" or "saw" by yelling "____ DOES NOT SEE!"

4. Harvard sorely misses Andy Watkins this year, but benefits from all those good literature questions which Ted Gioia gets and not those bad ones he does not. They win DII, though, led by former State College players and a charismatic newcomer, "Shmandy Shmatkins."

5. Michigan
They seem like nice people.

6. Chicago A
Marshall Steinbaum angrily complains that he got one question from knowledge gleaned from a video game, thereby meaning the question did not test "real" knowledge. Steinbaum then wonders whether one can really "know" anything, even their own existence, and spends the rest of the tournament in an existential quandary.

7. Penn
Penn upsets Yale on a packet with Canadian history, Canadian literature, Canadian science, and Canadian Canada questions. Also, a TU on Wikipedia.

8. Lehigh
Not content with just one Cinderella run, Lehigh defeats Michigan in the prelims.

9. Minnesota
Michael Arnold's entry for Minnesota was funny and I won't try and top it.

10. UCSD
11. UCI
12. UC-B
13. UCLA
14. Columbia
I like Michael Arnold! He seems like a cool guy.

15. Maryland B
Isaac Hirsch sits alone in his dorm playing the Jeopardy home game and weeping softly to himself.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby The Ununtiable Twine » Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:59 pm

Fortitudo Bologna wrote:Here's my rankings:

11. UCI
12. UC-B
13. UCLA


Serious Games Showcase and Challenge wrote:When considering where teams will end up in the competition, you should first make sure all of the teams that you rank are actually attending: http://naqt.com/ict/2012/invitations-di.html
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby something similarly dumb » Wed Mar 21, 2012 4:06 pm

Yes, but it's a good thing Lehigh and Maryland B are attending.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Matt Weiner » Wed Mar 21, 2012 4:24 pm

I did a little "if I seeded this tournament" exercise and came up with the following top-of-bracket scenarios:

Bracket A: Winner- Maryland
Match determining second playoff team: UCSD/Carleton

Bracket B: Winner - UVA A
Match determining second playoff team: Brown/Minnesota

Bracket C: Winner - Michigan A
Match determining second playoff team: Harvard/Ohio State A

Bracket D: Winner - Yale
Match determining second playoff team: Chicago A/Penn

I think Maryland has a huge advantage at this tournament because they are the only team with both a top generalist NAQT player and an elite science player who are not the same person. They are the favorite. We have also seen UVA and Yale do very well in recent history without a true science player by just being that much better than their opponents on everything else, so they are obviously contenders. If anyone but those three teams wins this tournament I will be moderately surprised, though of course many others, most notably Michigan, are capable of upsetting anyone in any game.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Fond du lac operon » Wed Mar 21, 2012 5:02 pm

If I seeded this tournament:

Bracket A

Yale, UVA A, Maryland, Harvard, Chicago A, UCSD, Michigan A, Ohio State A

Yes, I'm a cruel bastard, but it still makes more sense than the World Cup seeding.

Bracket B

Brown, Penn, Chicago B, UVA B, Illinois B, CMU, Texas A&M, Guelph

Quiz bowl is forgone in this bracket for a Hunger Games-style tournament. Guelph and Penn advance to playoffs due to Canadians' experience surviving in frozen wastelands.

Bracket C

MIT, Minnesota, Columbia, Illinois A, VCU, Chicago C, RPI, Arizona State

Minnesota goes 2-5 when Andrew Hart and Mike Cheyne are ruled academically ineligible the day before the tournament. Arizona State defeats MIT, sells T-shirts reading "This Was No Upset."

Bracket D

Carleton, Georgia Tech, Michigan B, Northwestern, Ohio State B, Alabama, Toronto, WUSTL

Inexplicably, only half the teams in this bracket show up to play, forcing Tech to split into five teams and Will Butler to literally be in two places at once. Best match of the bracket: Will Butler defeating Will Butler, 340-210.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby grapesmoker » Wed Mar 21, 2012 5:49 pm

For the record, I appear to have unfairly maligned Chicago for not submitting their packet when in fact they had submitted it and I just didn't catch it. You're off the hook... THIS TIME.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Demonic Leftovers » Wed Mar 21, 2012 5:57 pm

32. Arizona State- This team doesn't even end up playing after they are all hospitalized, following a band of PETA supporters attacking them for their baby seal fur coats.
31. Guelph- This team finishes with a disappointing loss to the Ghibellines.
30. Illinois B- Illinois gets Shaka Smart to coach this team instead of the basketball team a week before the tournament. He immediately regrets this decision when he finds out that they lack the athleticism to run his aggressive style of defense.
29. Ohio State B- This team inadvertently becomes embroiled in one of the biggest copyright cases in history when Carsten Gehring writes a version of CSNY's Ohio following Carleton's victory over them.
28. Chicago C- Much like Harvard did a few years ago, Chicago C tries dressing as another team. Unfortunately that team is a synchronized swimming team.
27. Michigan B- Jesus. How many Midwestern B and C teams does this tournament need?
26. Virginia B- Daniel Hothem will say a lot of things are "super important." They won't be.
25. WUSTL- Tensions arise when this team finishes in the bottom bracket. They are resolved with a stirring rendition of Sara Bareilles' "Love on the Rocks" at karaoke in Koreatown.
24. Toronto- By virtue of being the highest finishing Canadian team Toronto is given a berth in that Japanese competition, but they never arrive. The most popular theory for the disappearance is that it had something to do with Bigfoot's ghost.
23. Texas A&M- Way to rock the pocket guys.
22. Northwestern- As usual DanDon can't go a week without offending a gypsy. The resulting curse puts his team in the third bracket.
21. VCU- Over the course of the tournament it is revealed Cody has not heard of the following things from pop culture: 1) The Rolling Stones 2) Seinfeld 3) Tom Cruise and 4) Basketball.
20. RPI- A spelling error results in the ghost of El Jefe Maximato, Plutarco Calles, joining the team. He gets a pretty impressive power on the Cristero War TU.
19. Carnegie Mellon- When Chad Kubicek refers to Carnegie Mellon's match with Columbia as "a real cheesemelter" Trevor is inspired to make a grilled cheese sandwich. There are no survivors.
18. Carleton- Carleton's finish is overshadowed by the reveal that former Carleton player John Morse, not Julian Assange, is the creator of Wikileaks.
17. Alabama- Inspired by Rick Santorum's recent win in the Alabama primary, the team decides to refuse to answer a bonus on hardcore pornography against Ohio State A. They lose by 10 and fall to the third bracket.
16. Georgia Tech- I've been watching Community recently and I think someone in quizbowl should grow starburns. I vote for Will Butler.
15. Chicago B- Sam Bailey attempts to telecommute from Paris for the tournament. A mixup causes the video feed to be broadcast across France, and Sam becomes the next Gerard Depardieu.
14. Columbia/Colombia- Much like Marnold I can't tell them apart. Unfortunately for him that mixup will result in him scoring negative points for the tournament.
13. Illinois A- Ike Jose's most impressive feat at this tournament isn't making the second bracket, but instead it's managing to get
12. Ohio State A- They don't make the top bracket, but Jacob Durst gets rave reviews for his stirring rendition of The "Habanera" from Carmen at the tournament opening meeting.
11. MIT- MIT wins the UG title. Their stirring run to the title is later adapted for film as the 8th movie in the Fast and the Furious Franchise. Channing Tatum plays Neil Gurram.
10. Brown- After losing a playoff to UCSD to get into the top bracket Guy swears revenge on Auroni. Said revenge takes the exact same form as the plot of the ABC series Revenge.
9. Chicago A- The team appears to get a boost when Andrew Yaphe returns to get his LLM shortly before the tournament and joins the A team. It turns out it's just Seth Teitler in an Andrew Yaphe costume, and the team is unable to make it to the top playoffs bracket as a result.
8. UCSD- Chris Chiego leads this team to the top bracket with a last second power on the Fifty Shades of Grey TU.
7. Penn- Penn doesn't win, but Eric saves the tournament when he brings along just enough rattlesnake anti-venom.
6. Minnesota- Mike Cheyne and I escalate our rivalry. It has no effect on the tournament.
5. Michigan A- This team ends up the most hated at the tournament when Libo puts on a leather jacket and calls the team "Michigan AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA" the entire time.
4. Harvard- Harvard's chances at winning are crippled by an unexpected loss to the Governess.
3. Maryland- Maryland loses to Yale despite the packet containing TU's on the Chris Ray Barge photo, the Diary of Chris Ray, MLB reliever Chris Ray, Esteban Cordoza, and a dream Chris Ray had the night before about a world in which Dr. Pepper Ten is not for men but for women.
2. UVA- I assume Evan will screw it up in the finals somehow. Thanks Evan.
1. Yale- They win.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon » Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:06 pm

Considered joke projections, gave up after Isaac and David's posts.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Fond du lac operon » Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:06 pm

dseal wrote:17. Alabama- Inspired by Rick Santorum's recent win in the Alabama primary, the team decides to refuse to answer a bonus on hardcore pornography against Ohio State A. They lose by 10 and fall to the third bracket.


Wait, Marshall Steinbaum's writing for ICT?
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Papa's in the House » Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:21 pm

I'll add comments when I feel it'll add new information.

Locks for the top bracket:
UVA A
Yale A
Maryland A

Top bracket contenders:
Harvard - I think the loss of Andy Watkins will hurt this team a lot more than others believe, especially since Graham and David are playing D2.
Michigan A
Penn A
Minnesota - Despite the loss of Rob Carson and Gautam Kandlikar, I think they will easily contend the top bracket. Unfortunately, I think the lack of science knowledge Gautam brought to the table will hurt them against many other contending teams (see their inability to even 10 the last science bonus against IL A at Penn Bowl to win the game).
Chicago A
Illinois A - I really don't know why people think this team should be rated so low given that Ike has taken 1st or 2nd top scorer at every tournament he's attended (including MO, where he was the main reason why we beat Brendan Byrne, Trevor Davis, and others) and he just finished editing a good chunk of Peaceful Resolution. Add NAQT wunderkind Greg Baboukis and Billy Busse, and this team is far stronger than people are giving it credit (especially since my negs will not be hindering it).

Second bracket (with an outside chance at the top bracket):
OSU A
UCSD - Although Auroni is easily the best player on the West Coast, every time I've seen him play at a national tournament, he's been unable to perform as well against top players from other regions. Maybe he's gotten that much better since last year, but for now, I'll put them here.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby The Ununtiable Twine » Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:52 pm

My predictions to come later.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon » Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:54 pm

Serious Games Showcase and Challenge wrote:My predictions to come later.

A MEANINGFUL POST
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby marnold » Wed Mar 21, 2012 7:50 pm

Fred wrote:Considered joke projections, gave up after Isaac and David's posts.


Fred wrote:A MEANINGFUL POST


Also, I like how every list with numbers has put us at #14.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Dr. Loki Skylizard, Thoracic Surgeon » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:01 pm

marnold wrote:
Fred wrote:Considered joke projections, gave up after Isaac and David's posts.


Fred wrote:A MEANINGFUL POST


Also, I like how every list with numbers has put us at #14.

I brought the Tony Kornheiser robot gif into this world, I can take it out.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby marnold » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:10 pm

Fred wrote:
marnold wrote:
Fred wrote:Considered joke projections, gave up after Isaac and David's posts.


Fred wrote:A MEANINGFUL POST


Also, I like how every list with numbers has put us at #14.

I brought the Tony Kornheiser robot gif into this world, I can take it out.


eek
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Frater Taciturnus » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:43 pm

so wait who did the Brown team that finished third last year lose that makes people think they will be a second bracket team? Did Dan Klein get strangled by his girlfriend or something?
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Gautam » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:46 pm

Frater Taciturnus wrote:so wait who did the Brown team that finished third last year lose that makes people think they will be a second bracket team? Did Dan Klein get strangled by his girlfriend or something?


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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Cheynem » Wed Mar 21, 2012 10:22 pm

I think Brown is a dangerous team who has a very strong shot at the top bracket. I do think that it's not so much them losing anyone, as other teams (Yale, UVA, Maryland, etc.) getting better.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Frater Taciturnus » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:19 pm

I know for a fact we will miss the second bracket because cody wont buzz the tossup on Earnshaw's Theorem because he is so confused that I haven't buzzed already on the tossup on the thing I had never heard of until he insisted that I knew what it was.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby akessler » Thu Mar 22, 2012 12:51 am

Smuttynose Island wrote:4. Harvard
Last year’s ICT winner, I don’t think that they will repeat the feat and go for the trifecta because of their loss of Andy, who got a huge NAQT boost. With that being said, this team has shown their ability to regroup from that loss by adding the former State College players Graham Moyer and David Liu. These additions, along with Dallas’ NAQT boost should be more than enough to put Harvard into title contention, although I ultimately think that their lack of a distinct knowledge advantage over the other top teams will have them falling short this year.


Graham and David played on the DII Harvard team for SCT, so unless something changed I assume that's where they'll be playing.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Cheynem » Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:03 am

32. Illinois B: For his crimes against Ike law, Charles Martin is exiled to this team to play solo. Disastrous results ensue.

31. Guelph: Team takes second in NAQT's Top Canadian School standing and gets a trophy.

30. Texas A&M: Team's bizarre attempt at using the Twelfth Man in a quizbowl setting results in many questions unable to be heard.

29. Arizona State: Team tries to copy Tampa Bay Rays' attempt at success by dropping "Devil" from their name. After dropping two tight games to end up in the bottom bracket, team patriarch Kenneth decides to embrace the "Devil" and changes the team's name to the Arizona State Satanists.

28. Chicago C: Kay Li leads all Chicago players in negs, which wins him the coveted UChicago Golden Sombrero, which is made of actual gold and pays his college bills for the next two years.

27. Ohio State B: That one guy and the other guy get some questions.

26. Toronto: Under arcane NAQT laws, team must play Guelph in a 10-round circle of death to determine best Canadian School.

25. Carnegie Mellon: Trevor Davis dresses as Andrew Mellon for the entire tournament, which has poor consequences when a group of surviving Bonus Army veterans who live in the hotel's basement spot him and beat him senseless in revenge for the Great Depression.

24. Michigan B: Michigan wises up and exiles Bryan Berend to the B team for, in the words of Libo, "sheer noobery," and also to have the powerhouse B+B punch of Bryan and Ben Forster.

23. Virginia B: Daniel Hothem confuses a heavyset biker dude for Mike Cheyne and is beaten senseless by the Hell's Angels.

22. WUSTL: Charles Hang and Gordon Arsenoff unite the feuding fiefdoms of the WUSTL polity and celebrate by frying some burgers and killing some terrorists.

21. Northwestern: Team's unique strategy of yelling "YOU FUCKING IDIOT" after each one of them negs and then chugging alcohol results in an improbable upset win over Chicago but also losses to Chicago C and Texas A&M.

20. Alabama: Jake Sundberg takes this whole "Archdemon" thing a bit too seriously by sacrificing Dargan Ware to the Dread Dormammu before arriving at the tournament and then forcing Harrison Brown to wear the Crimson Bands of Cyttorak.

19. VCU: Coach Matt Weiner's patented "Havoc" plan confuses Cody Voight, who thinks Matt is telling him to study the JV high school tournament HAVOC.

18. Georgia Tech: Gregory Peacock play a sound file of Tim Brando shouting "The Butler did it again!" after every Will Butler power. Things seem great until Chris Ray flips out and smashes Greg's face into a wall.

17. Chicago B: Jimmy ? uses his CO Trash champion skills to nail tossups on "Vega$" and "Johnny Paycheck" in a thrilling battle for bracketing that comes up short.

16. RPI: Team actually does poorly in prelim play, but their high RPI controversially earns them a spot in the second bracket, a decision well defended by Jay Bilas.

15. Columbia: National champion Michael Arnold negs every law question with "Horse Feathers." Relegated to the second bracket, he spends the playoffs lighting cigars with last sums of money and telling competitors he will own their souls in a few years.

14. Carleton: Everyone on the team gets cold feet about having to play GRAD STUDENTS except Charlie Rosenthal, who rallies them with an impassioned speech about drugs, sex, and soccer. Team is inspired to beat Columbia to take 14th.

13. Illinois A: Ike Jose scores a few early upsets and is then consumed by Henrich Bieber fever.

12. Ohio State A: Jarret Greene beats Mike Cheyne's Minnesota team in the first round. Having achieved his life's goal, he then ascends into a higher plane of existence: a purple-tinted paradise named Smolkavida where he lives out eternity eating candied yams and playing Pachinko.

11. MIT: Neil Gurram builds a ray which he uses to send Eric Mukherjee to the Phantom Zone for the first few rounds. Improbably, it takes a quicker amount of time to escape the Phantom Zone than it does to get to ICT using American Airlines.

10. Brown: Dan Klein is unamused by George's flippant remark and tells him about it in the hallway at the hotel, which causes him to be arrested by overzealous hotel security. Guy, mistaking the security guard's profanity-laced diatribe for a Czech dialect, is taken for a terrorist and tasered.

9. UCSD: Auroni Gupta leads team to a few early victories but then realizes he's playing top national teams, not West Coast creampuffs. Like the cowardly little man he is, he plays the rest of the tournament in the fetal position and is dubbed "Fauxroni Goof-ta" for the rest of his quizbowl career. Luckily, years later, he comes back as a grad student and much like the Drew Barrymore movie "Never Been Kissed," he conquers his past demons to win ICT...in 2020.

8. Chicago A: Marshall Steinbaum's secret collection of bonus Peaceful Resolution packets help his team score victories to get this team into the last spot in the top bracket. Tyler Smith gets a haircut at lunch and his powers are sapped. After hearing a tossup on the Monterey Aquarium, Marshall thinks the tournament is making fun of him and writes R. Hentzel's name down in his secret enemies list to be put up against the wall after the coming revolution.

7. Penn: After escaping the Phantom Zone, Eric returns to help his team into the top bracket. In a crucial playoff game against Minnesota, a question comes up on Faulkner's novel Pylon, and Eric told Saajid to learn all the Faulkner novels last week, so it looks like they'll win, but oh no, Saajid didn't do what Eric said and instead played 48 hours of Q-Bert online. Penn loses to take 7th, but Eric is unfazed and has already predicted future success, pending Patrick Liao learning every Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

6. Minnesota: David Seal gets the questions on "Father Knows Best," John Marquand, and Joan Crawford against MIke Cheyne, causing Mike to cry. In an attempt to get back his mojo, Mike negs the last question on Brewster's Angle with the formula Johnny Quick uses to gain his superpowers, causing Andrew to colloquially ponder why pray tell he was trying to answer a question in the scientifical vein.

5. Michigan: Having replaced Bryan with Saul Hankin, Michigan is cruising, but then loses a game to Maryland on the last question when Saul cannot identify Superman because he is a DC hero.

4. Harvard: Ted does what he should of done a long time ago and learns science buzzwords, allowing him to improbably beat Penn. Unfortunately, drunk with power he puts in the Sailor Scale one more time and is promptly banned from not just the QBWiki but from ICT itself in a strange rule introduced by Jonah Greenthal.

3. Maryland: Before the tournament, Arun Choai disappears into the Mystery Spot, Dan Puma is arrested for various murders, and Steve Jon Guth is kicked off the team for his sideburns. Chris Ray is forced to play Isaac Hirsch, who wins a question by accidentally falling on his buzzer when he falls asleep and his answer of snoring is mistaken for the correct response "The Rise and Fall of the City of Mahogany." Chris is feeling it, but then loses to UVA and Yale (see below).

2. Yale: This team steamrolls through its first few rounds before entering a taut battle with Maryland. Having used a mnemonic device to link old baseball players' names to compositions of Mozart, John Lawrence pulls a tough bonus on the 1950 Whiz Kids to beat Maryland. They then proceed to the finals to play UVA.

1. UVA: The finals pits UVA and Yale in a non advantaged final, having oddly tied their last game. Moderator Seth Teitler does not set the clock properly, allowing for the finals to only have a duration of three minutes. Despite a close call when Matt Bollinger's contemptuous sighing on every science question causes him to receive a technical foul, UVA pulls it off when Tommy gets a tossup on J.J. Hunsecker to win the tournament."David Seal completes his career Triple Crown of ICT/ICT/CULT. UVA management dedicates the victory to the fans and then promptly dismantles the team in a fire sale--Matt Bollinger is sent to the Dodgers, Evan Adams signs with the Padres, and Tommy goes to the Mets. The team reacquires veteran David Seal and wins another ICT a few years later.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby itsthatoneguy » Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:06 am

My top bracket (in no particular order): Yale, UVA, Brown, Michigan, Chicago, Minnesota, Chicago, Maryland.
Sleepers: UCSD, Illinois, OSU.

Since no one is mentioning D2, I might as well say a few things about some of the teams coming out of the Midwest:

MSU - Joe, Connor, and Chris play very well together and were very impressive at SCT. This team knows a great deal of geography, current events, and, of course, pop culture, which is definitely a plus at this tournament.

Michigan - Ryan and Peter will put up a decent amount of points. Will this be enough for the top bracket? Probably.

Notre Dame - Matt Messana is also a fantastic player. I don't know how much help he'll get, but I can definitely see this team in the top bracket.

Chicago - Not sure about this team since a) I don't know who will be on it and b) I haven't seen too much of Chicago's younger players this year.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Sun Devil Student » Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:12 am

dseal wrote:32. Arizona State- This team doesn't even end up playing after they are all hospitalized, following a band of PETA supporters attacking them for their baby seal fur coats.

In the joking spirit of this thread, I'll just note that Arizona State's team should get through the PETA picket lines just fine, because they are ACTUAL baby seals (causing the PETA protesters to fawn adoringly over them and let them go), not evil humans wearing seal fur coats. They did finish last, but not for that reason.

The real reason Arizona State ended up in last place is because they stayed up the night before to cram for the tournament (just like for midterms), only to oversleep on tournament day and rush down to the hotel lobby to discover that round 13 has started without them. Barging into the middle of their final match with about 9 minutes left in the second half, they find that Guelph took an uncontested 190-point lead during their absence. Undaunted, they make a valiant attempt at a comeback, which includes back-to-back powers on two trash tossups but ultimately falls just short, 190-185, as time runs out. Arizona State's resulting stat line shows a ridiculously good 370.0 PP20TH, because they only actually heard 10 tossups for the entire tournament, resulting in the hilarious anomaly of a 14-0 team (the champion) having a worse PP20TH than an 0-13 team at the same tournament.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby marnold » Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:21 am

This is one of the funniest threads I've ever seen on hsqb. (It's nearest competitor - never forget). There's no way for anyone to get all the jokes here; maybe I'll create an annotated version for future generations of meta-scholars.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Cheynem » Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:29 am

itsthatoneguy wrote:My top bracket (in no particular order): Yale, UVA, Brown, Michigan, Chicago, Minnesota, Chicago, Maryland.


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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Sun Devil Student » Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:32 am

Cheynem wrote:29. Arizona State: Team tries to copy Tampa Bay Rays' attempt at success by dropping "Devil" from their name. After dropping two tight games to end up in the bottom bracket, team patriarch Kenneth decides to embrace the "Devil" and changes the team's name to the Arizona State Satanists.

I'm flattered that you think we can pull enough upsets to fight our way from 32nd up to 29th place, so thank you. :) If it works, then my decision to not play this year so as to give my team an outside shot at getting those upsets will be vindicated.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby The Ununtiable Twine » Thu Mar 22, 2012 2:04 am

FIRST BRACKET

1. Yale - Yale is Yale, and they will just Yale people to death.
2. UVA - I surely think UVA could win but I'm going with my gut here. Given previous predictions that I've posted on the forums, I may have cost Yale a title as my predictions have been known to doom teams. Sorry guys. Bollinger, you can thank me later.
3. Harvard - I still think they've got a bit in the tank and I don't like demoting champions because they lost one player. Sure, Andy was an amazing player for them, but I believe they're still the champions until someone beats them and I think they have something to prove. They'll find themselves in some close matches in the top bracket and they'll do enough to win 10-11 games.
4. Maryland - They're not polynomials, but the cyclotomic variety of these objects cannot be uniquely factored into the national championship game picture even if PPB > 23. Harvard defeats Maryland on a final tossup concerning integers, ironically enough.
5. Chicago A - This team is really good and underrated. A bonus on Alabama governors that Marshall thought he would include in the Peaceful Resolution set for us because he thought it would be nice to throw the southern folks a bone will actually come up in a tight match against Michigan, and they will 30 it, giving them the 5 point win.
6. Michigan - "They're nice people."
7. Penn - Eric and company will find themselves in a battle to get into the top bracket and they will defeat some team like UCSD by a little bit, but only because Patrick Liao learned some extra Canada clues while writing his share of Penn Bowl. His lightning quick reflexes on the FLQ tossup will save Penn from a 9th place finish.
8. Ohio State - They sneak by in a tiebreaker round in the easiest bracket, but hey, a win is a win, and they get to the top bracket.

--
SECOND BRACKET

9. Minnesota - they've still got a lot left in them, but I think the losses they incurred in the offseason will have them just barely on the outside looking in here. I like Minnesota and I think they can still win some key matches, the reason I have them in the second bracket is mainly because at ICT we usually have one bracket that is a little more stacked than the others and another one that is a little easier. Three of these top teams actually have to be in one bracket sometimes, so one has to be left out. They could get the easy pool and get into the top bracket easily. This is a prediction and not real life though.
10. Alabama - Blah blah blah blah blah. I shall feed you all to my demonic henchmen who do my evil bidding! Prepare to suffer at the hands of the almighty Archdemon. My Neochu will swallow you whole. Not only that, he is immune to death!
11. UCSD - Auroni is an exceptional player by all means, and he has good teammates. I think this is right but I might be off two or three spots.
12. Illinois A - The loss of Sorice hurts Illinois but Ike Jose is a hard worker and he has some decent teammates. Last time I checked, Sorice is really good and the field has gotten much stronger this year so I think this is the right place for this team. I don't think it would be logical to say "Harvard lost Andy Watkins so they're out of title contention" and "Illinois lost Mike Sorice but Illinois will make a magical run to the top bracket" in the same post. When you lose a great science player and a great player overall it has to hurt, and one cannot just "magically replace Mike Sorice" at ICT. With that being said this team has potential and could beat a few of the teams ahead of it, but I think this is about right.
13. Brown - They're still going to be competitive, wouldn't be surprised if they cracked top 8 either. I just have them here, really. My random prediction of the day is that they get a tough bracket and fall down to second bracket and go .500 or so when they get there.
14. Chicago B - Both Chicago squads did well at SCT, for that reason I'm sure I underrated this team severely. As I accidentally forgot about them when I was writing out my predictions, I'll put them here. Another very balanced team.
15. Georgia Tech - They'll win a tiebreaker match to get into the second bracket and will perform admirably in it. Most of their games in the bracket will be close but I think Will is an exceptional player and I think Tech will pull out one or two close games.
16. MIT - A nice young team, I think they have great potential and they played really well at SCT, but ICT has its ways. Probably the commodity that is most underrated in these predictions, but I can't have fifteen top ten teams.

--
THIRD BRACKET

17. Columbia - Loses to Tech in a tiebreaker and Marnold gets really mad and destroys every team in the third bracket.
18. RPI - I don't know if they have much scoring punch besides Aaron, and they did well last year. They'll do well again this year.
19. Carnegie Mellon - Trevor will have an excellent scoring day, and this team will play well in almost every match it plays. Lots of close, gutsy wins in third bracket play will land this team here.
20. Northwestern - I like this young team, but they're still young. With the way the field is vastly improving, I think they're either a year and two players away from making a top bracket appearance or two years and one player away.
21. VCU - everyone's favorite team. I love Shaka Smart, and congratulations go out to VCU for not losing him to Illinois. This team has the potential to make second bracket and I think they have decent players and a nice future. But like Illinois losing Mike and Harvard losing Andy, the loss of Evan will show here.
22. Ohio State B - everyone on the team averages 20 ppg, and they convert exactly half of the bonus parts. On purpose. They have a shot at 17th but decide to try to accomplish this feat instead, and they succeed, only it costs them several spots in the final standings.
23. Carleton - this team is decent, I think they finish here.
24. Michigan B - I don't know exactly what the lineup of this team will be so I may have underrated them.

--
FOURTH BRACKET

25. UVA B - I don't know if UVA plans to rotate five for ICT like they have done in the past, but if they do, I put UVA B here. If not, they may move up four or five slots.
26. WUSTL - I don't know if Gordon intends to play ICT but if he does this team may take a 8-10 spot leap up, he's very underappreciated as a player in my opinion.
27. Guelph - This team won the Canadian SCT so I think they'll be capable of winning a few games here.
28. Toronto - they lost Jordan who was quite a big contributor on their team so I have them here.
29. Chicago C - Chicago has a slew of decent players, they'll put together a team that'll win a few games.
30. Arizona State - The loss of Kenneth Lan will move this team down a bit.
31. Texas A&M - I don't know much about this team either.
32. Illinois B - I don't know much about the rest of the Illinois players, and I suppose they are moving the key contributors from SCT's B-team to their A-team.

EDIT: boredom, the message is the same.
Last edited by The Ununtiable Twine on Thu Mar 22, 2012 2:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby The Ununtiable Twine » Thu Mar 22, 2012 2:17 am

Mike Cheyne post of the year.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Muriel Axon » Sat Mar 24, 2012 12:59 am

MSU - Joe, Connor, and Chris play very well together and were very impressive at SCT. This team knows a great deal of geography, current events, and, of course, pop culture, which is definitely a plus at this tournament.


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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby itsthatoneguy » Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:20 am

Cheynem wrote:
itsthatoneguy wrote:My top bracket (in no particular order): Yale, UVA, Brown, Michigan, Chicago, Minnesota, Chicago, Maryland.


SHEER NOOBERY


Chicago is just THAT good. But Harvard should be in there somewhere.

Qmwne235 wrote:
MSU - Joe, Connor, and Chris play very well together and were very impressive at SCT. This team knows a great deal of geography, current events, and, of course, pop culture, which is definitely a plus at this tournament.


Aww, Bryan, why don't you like me?


I didn't know you were going until yesterday. You were also impressive at SCT.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby bradleykirksey » Sun Mar 25, 2012 7:40 pm

Noobish question, but if Alabama has the number 9 seed and played sectionals without Harrison Brown, then why is everyone so low on them? I thought the D values were supposed to adjust for all of this.

Also, I'm predicting Washington to win. I know they're the lowest seed. But some inside information tells me they paid Tom Nisley and Ken Jennings $5 each to take a class and play quizbowl. They'll win over a Shaka Smart coached VCU. Don't ask why Shaka Smart can coach quiz bowl. He's Shaka Smart.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Fond du lac operon » Sun Mar 25, 2012 7:55 pm

bradleykirksey wrote:Noobish question, but if Alabama has the number 9 seed and played sectionals without Harrison Brown, then why is everyone so low on them? I thought the D values were supposed to adjust for all of this.


More seriously, from what I understand, there are numerous reasons; some of them are justified (conversion between DI and DII D-values is sketchy at best; we've put up okay-but-hardly-top-tier numbers at tournaments like ACF Regionals and MOO; the Southern circuit has very few good teams, especially ones that are good playing on higher-level questions) and some aren't (Alabama's poor performances historically, various personal histories).

Also, FWIW, it's hard to project how someone like me will do on DI ICT questions from my performance on DII SCT questions. I could turn out to be the next Matt Jackson, or I could end up getting 4.5 ppg at ICT (spoiler alert: it's probably the latter.)
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby bird bird bird bird bird » Sun Mar 25, 2012 7:57 pm

bradleykirksey wrote:if Alabama has the number 9 seed ... I thought the D values were supposed to adjust for all of this.


D-value rankings and ICT seeds do not match up exactly (because we have to seed the host schools and account for roster changes nationwide).
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby mhayes » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:25 pm

What is it like to be a Batman? wrote:I could end up getting 4.5 ppg at ICT


That's highly unlikely, Harrison.

But I think the biggest issue is the level of competition. Yes there are other quality teams in the southeast, notably Georgia Tech and Florida, but it may be hard for some to gauge how Alabama would perform on a national stage.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby bradleykirksey » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:03 pm

Alright. Those are pretty good arguments, but they mostly boil down to uncertainty. But if the default by seeding is 9th, and they're going to add their best player on in addition to that, then I would expect at least someone to play Skip Bayless for them. Isn't anyone going to make smug, highly irrational claims because they proved themself in a lower level of play?

I'll be really interested where they end up in the rankings. And Geogria Tech, too. I want to see if the Rick Santorum voters really poisoned our quiz bowl pool.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby Cody » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:22 pm

bradleykirksey wrote:Alright. Those are pretty good arguments, but they mostly boil down to uncertainty. But if the default by seeding is 9th, and they're going to add their best player on in addition to that, then I would expect at least someone to play Skip Bayless for them. Isn't anyone going to make smug, highly irrational claims because they proved themself in a lower level of play?

I'll be really interested where they end up in the rankings. And Geogria Tech, too. I want to see if the Rick Santorum voters really poisoned our quiz bowl pool.
Jake + Harrison put up 15 PPB on Penn Bowl. To be fair, that was an ACF and not an NAQT tournament, but it shows pretty well how they scale up on harder questions. There's no uncertainty that they won't do nearly as well at ICT as their D value suggests.

Their default seeding is not 9th. The placement wrt to D value for teams who played the D2 set will be very, very different from their actual seeding, so it's best to just put them out of your mind.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby The Ununtiable Twine » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:50 pm

SirT wrote:
bradleykirksey wrote:Alright. Those are pretty good arguments, but they mostly boil down to uncertainty. But if the default by seeding is 9th, and they're going to add their best player on in addition to that, then I would expect at least someone to play Skip Bayless for them. Isn't anyone going to make smug, highly irrational claims because they proved themself in a lower level of play?

I'll be really interested where they end up in the rankings. And Geogria Tech, too. I want to see if the Rick Santorum voters really poisoned our quiz bowl pool.
Jake + Harrison put up 15 PPB on Penn Bowl. To be fair, that was an ACF and not an NAQT tournament, but it shows pretty well how they scale up on harder questions. There's no uncertainty that they won't do nearly as well at ICT as their D value suggests.

Their default seeding is not 9th. The placement wrt to D value for teams who played the D2 set will be very, very different from their actual seeding, so it's best to just put them out of your mind.


We're not exactly adding two nontrivial components to the "Jake/Harrison one-two punch" or whatever people fathom our team to be. In addition, we have obvious strengths that NAQT sets allow us to exploit. In addition, I'm presuming the science editing is going to be good in all subject areas, so that should benefit us as well (Not saying Penn Bowl's science editor was anything but good, but I'm expecting ICT's science editing to be far above the average for this year). Harrison is not our leading scorer or necessarily our best player, he's "another scorer" - we have four people that can do that - who the best player is almost always changes from round to round. Just because Dargan has been MIA doesn't mean I will kill him before the tournament or that he doesn't provide as much scoring as the guy to the left or right of him on our team, or maybe the guy two seats down.
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Re: ICT Prediction Thread

Postby women, fire and dangerous things » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:51 pm

Off topic, but that's an awesome avatar, Cody. I'm going to go watch that video right now.
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