Midseason Poll

Current and historical discussions of the best teams and players across the nation, along with question sets and tournaments. The board-run national polls also take place in this forum. Region-specific discussion live under this forum.

Midseason Poll

Postby deserto » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:43 pm

RESULTS:

TOP 25*:

1. Detroit Catholic Central (Novi, Mich.) — 192 (5)
2. Hunter (New York, N.Y.) — 181
3. James E. Taylor (Katy, Texas) — 164
4. Chattahoochee (Johns Creek, Ga.) — 154 (2)
5. Barrington (Barrington, Ill.) — 149 (1)
6. Stevenson (Lincolnshire, Ill.) — 139
7. Thomas Jefferson (Alexandria, Va.) — 133
8. Naperville North (Naperville, Ill.) — 127
9. Westview (San Diego, Calif.) — 121
10. Dorman (Roebuck, S.C.) — 117
11. St. John's (Houston, Texas) — 108
12. High Tech (Lincroft, N.J.) — 91
13. Lexington (Lexington, Mass.) — 90
14. Lehigh Valley Academy (Bethlehem, Pa.) — 85
15. Ithaca (Ithaca, N.Y.) — 80
16. Southside (Greenville, S.C.) — 66
17. Canyon Crest (San Diego, Calif.) — 53
18. LASA (Austin, Texas) — 51
19. Richard Montgomery (Rockville, Md.) — 48
20. Dunbar (Lexington, Ky.) — 45
T-21. Cave Spring (Roanoke, Va.) — 35
T-21. Hoover (Hoover, Ala.) — 35
23. Washington (Washington, Mo.) — 33
24. St. Mark's (Dallas, Texas) — 31
T-25. Great Neck South (Lake Success, N.Y.) — 26
T-25. Detroit Country Day (Beverly Hills, Mich.) — 26

Also receiving votes: IMSA (Ill.) 25, James Clemens (Ala.) 21, Torrey Pines (Calif.) 21, Darien (Conn.) 20, Battle Ground (Tenn.) 14, Hinsdale Central (Ill.) 13, Westminster (Ga.) 12, Montgomery Blair (Md.) 11, Wilmington Charter (Del.) 11, Northview (Ga.) 10, Chattahoochee B 9, Davis (Calif.) 9, Mountain Lakes (N.J.) 9, duPont Manual (Ky.) 7, La Jolla (Calif.) 6, Maggie Walker (Va.) 5, Early College at Guilford (N.C.) 5, Thomas Jefferson B 4, Centennial (Md.) 3, Manheim Township (Pa.) 2, Buckhorn (Ala.) 2, Lisgar (Ontario, Canada) 1

* first-place votes in parentheses

Note: the majority of ballots arrived before this past weekend's slate of tournaments.

Please join me in thanking the eight coaches who voted in this iteration of the national high school quizbowl poll: Todd Garrison (Glasgow [Ky.]), Christopher Gismondi (Detroit Catholic Central), Troy Harris (Plymouth [N.H.]), Kevin Marshall (Mount Carmel Academy [La.]), Michael Mathis (Chattahoochee), Jacob O'Rourke (Washington), Brian Owen (Dorman), and Peter Schmidt (Lehigh Valley Academy). Creating a fair, considered national ranking is a formidable task, one these voters perform on a volunteer basis.

In response to the preseason poll results, several commenters inquired about the geographic distribution and potential regional slants of the voters; you may now evaluate those yourselves by perusing the individual ballots that yielded the foregoing ranking.

In addition, several respondents included expository comments with their ballots, or provided assessments of their regional circuits. Those may be viewed here.

I dropped the small-school ranking from this poll, but plan to revive it before the SSNCT, when 1) I will have had more time to develop fair eligibility criteria, and 2) small-school teams will have produced more tournament results for voters' consideration. I'm thinking also of introducing a players' poll to accompany the pre-nats coaches' poll. Thoughts on this idea, these results, how to improve my methodology? Throw 'em below or shoot me a PM.

Finally, congrats to the teams that garnered votes in this poll! To all, good luck this winter and spring
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Sit Room Guy » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:38 pm

I think this poll would be more equitably conducted if the highest and lowest result for each team were eliminated. This would indicate better how any given team is regarded by the average community member and make it less susceptible to individual bias (one coach ranked us 25th, and that tanked us two places in the ranking). The converse of this is true as well. Another coach ranked IMSA 9 places above others, putting them 2 places higher on the ranking than my adjusted method would yield. It may seem a bit petty quibbling over two places in a poll, but in a ranking of 25 teams this is a pretty big margin of error. In case anyone's curious, the poll with the methodology adjusted in this way is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
(original order of teams preserved for comparison)
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby DeepakM » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:02 pm

Just wondering, is there a particular reason there's no ballot from an illinois coach? I realize there may be a very good reason behind it, but considering the relatively high activity and depth of the illinois circuit, I was just surprised there was no ballot.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby browen » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:26 pm

DeepakM wrote:Just wondering, is there a particular reason there's no ballot from an illinois coach? I realize there may be a very good reason behind it, but considering the relatively high activity and depth of the illinois circuit, I was just surprised there was no ballot.


It is surprising, but it boils down to no coach from Illinois volunteering. Gabe asked via coaches' emails and on the pre-season poll thread for ballots.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Chromica » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:30 pm

I was a bit dismayed at the omission of the small school rankings this time around, but understandable given that some of the preseason top ten have been to as little as one or even no NAQT HS events this season, making stats hard to come by.

I'm interested as to whether or not this player opinion poll takes off. I feel like it might grant some fresh perspectives given how many active HS players lodge their opinions here already, and I'd be very interested in participating in something like that.

Finally, will the next iteration of the small school poll be broken up into Traditional Public and Charter-and-Private divisions, or will they be kept together in one ranking?
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Irreligion in Bangladesh » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:30 pm

DeepakM wrote:Just wondering, is there a particular reason there's no ballot from an illinois coach? I realize there may be a very good reason behind it, but considering the relatively high activity and depth of the illinois circuit, I was just surprised there was no ballot.


It wasn't for lack of trying; I was asked to vote but had to turn it down due to time constraints, and others may have been in a similar position. (Sorry!)
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby DeepakM » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:44 pm

Ok that makes a lot of sense. I was just confused for a second
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby AGoodMan » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:46 pm

I'm surprised Naperville North did not receive any first-place votes, considering their full-team prowess at NTV & HFT Auburn mirror and their head-to-head performance against teams that DID receive first place votes such as Chattahoochee and Barrington. I could not turn in my vote in time but I definitely think Jakob Myers & co. is at least top 5 in the nation.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Sit Room Guy » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:31 am

randomguy1997 wrote:I'm surprised Naperville North did not receive any first-place votes, considering their full-team prowess at NTV & HFT Auburn mirror and their head-to-head performance against teams that DID receive first place votes such as Chattahoochee and Barrington. I could not turn in my vote in time but I definitely think Jakob Myers & co. is at least top 5 in the nation.

I'm also kinda surprised that being the reigning national champions didn't get Hunter any votes.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:44 pm

Speaking for myself, I did do research and tried the best that I could to evaluate everyone on their performances from August through last weekend. However, that's easier said than done. Some thoughts:

- While 2015-16 success and the # and quality of returning players figured heavily in my early fall ballot, I tried to base my rankings for this poll solely on tournament results since August—and I felt more comfortable ranking teams on a wide body of work, rather than on their best effort at a single tournament. I also tried to figure out when teams were playing at full strength and when they weren't... and tried to rank them based on their full "A" team. Obviously, I have a much better idea about the rosters of teams that we play often against than players on teams that we never play. So, I'm sure I made some mistakes.

- Not at all results are posted on NAQT's site or are easily available on hsquizbowl.org, even with a search. I will admit, though, that I didn’t look hard enough for Dorman’s results. At NAQT tournaments this fall, their results weren’t that great, so I based their ranking on that information. However, it looks like I missed the GSAC results… so, I should have put them higher on the list. My bad.

- While I understand that some teams play under pseudonyms, I don’t think that it’s a pollster’s responsibility to track down those results.

- If a team has not yet played its full roster, but is still playing "A" players on the "B" team for experience, I cannot really determine its true level. Darien is an obvious example of a team that is almost certainly a Top 10 team, but apparently hasn’t yet played its “A” team against solid competition.

- Gabe’s a good guy, but he should have alerted voters that their individual votes might be made available to the public. I’m generally OK with people seeing my vote—I did the best I could and tried not to favor my own team or my own region—but QB people (well, ANY people, and I include myself) often dwell on perceived sleights. I tried not to favor my own team or region, while some other coaches clearly had no problem favoring their own team and region. So, I hope that my local colleagues aren’t pissed at me.

- Now that I have seen the voting of individual coaches, I wish I could “un-see” some of their ballots, which confirm my suspicion that some coaches base their votes on expectations and/or the traditional power structure rather than results from this fall. For instance… Texas, whose top teams this year I know exclusively from on-line results, rather than in-person experience: St Johns and Katy Taylor have split their meetings when both were at full strength: both matches were very close. So, why did many of the other voters put Katy Taylor substantially ahead of St Johns? Similarly, Naperville North did win the HFT mirror, but did not fare as well earlier in the fall, so I put them slightly under Stevenson and Barrington. In the end, Naperville may prove to be the best team, but I went by what I could discover about their overall body of work since August.

- The more coaches that vote--by open or secret ballot--the better the poll will be.

- Lastly, these threads tend to be dominated by college-and-older folk, so I like seeing current HS players, like Jakob, weigh in. He is a thoughtful guy, with a healthy sense of humor. I encourage more young people to put in their two cents. Having a players-only poll would be great.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby 2017 in amusement parks » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:03 pm

Antrobus63 wrote:- If a team has not yet played its full roster, but is still playing "A" players on the "B" team for experience, I cannot really determine its true level. Darien is an obvious example of a team that is almost certainly a Top 10 team, but apparently hasn’t yet played its “A” team against solid competition.


I'll say that we actually haven't been placing A team players on our B team for experience. We did get to play Ithaca at ACF Fall with a team incredibly close to full strength, and went 1-3 against them with two close losses. But yes, otherwise we've had some trouble getting everyone to the same tournament. I'll assume that's why we're unranked on all but 2 of the ballots (though I would also hesitate to call us top 10 without real results).

- Lastly, these threads tend to be dominated by college-and-older folk, so I like seeing current HS players, like Jakob, weigh in. He is a thoughtful guy, with a healthy sense of humor. I encourage more young people to put in their two cents. Having a players-only poll would be great.


I'd love to contribute to or run a players-only poll if there's sufficient interest. I'd definitely like to participate in this poll once I graduate as well.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby deserto » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:15 pm

JakobeanEra wrote:I think this poll would be more equitably conducted if the highest and lowest result for each team were eliminated.


This seems a fine idea, similar to how diving scores are calculated: by dropping the two highest and lowest marks. While I think such an approach would work better with a larger data set, I'll certainly consider adopting it for the pre-nats polls.

Chromica wrote:I'm interested as to whether or not this player opinion poll takes off. I feel like it might grant some fresh perspectives given how many active HS players lodge their opinions here already, and I'd be very interested in participating in something like that.

Finally, will the next iteration of the small school poll be broken up into Traditional Public and Charter-and-Private divisions, or will they be kept together in one ranking?


I'm glad you're interested in contributing to a players' poll; I've made you the first entry on my mailing list. Attaining and maintaining a critical mass of voters is my top priority. Assembling a small-school ranking requires substantial research, particularly for those not affiliated with a top small-school team, and I worry that splitting the poll into two divisions would make the job more burdensome. In posting the results of future small-school polls, however, I will be sure to note teams' divisions.

Antrobus63 wrote:The more coaches that vote--by open or secret ballot--the better the poll will be.


Reaffirming this point, I'd love to receive ballots, written reflections even, from coaches / TDs in regions that have gone unrepresented in the last two polls, such as Texas, California, and Illinois. And from more folks in the Mid-Atlantic and New England, too.

I apologize to Peter and any other voters who may have been caught off guard by my public posting of the ballots; while I wrote in my preseason ballot call, "know that your rankings may be made public, as in the polls of old," I regret not reissuing that disclaimer. I do believe releasing individual ballots is a reasonable + valuable thing to do; as I stated previously, it gives readers insight into the potential regional slants of respondents, and into the distinct manners in which compiled their ballots.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby browen » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:19 pm

Chromica wrote:I was a bit dismayed at the omission of the small school rankings this time around, but understandable given that some of the preseason top ten have been to as little as one or even no NAQT HS events this season, making stats hard to come by.

I'm interested as to whether or not this player opinion poll takes off. I feel like it might grant some fresh perspectives given how many active HS players lodge their opinions here already, and I'd be very interested in participating in something like that.

Finally, will the next iteration of the small school poll be broken up into Traditional Public and Charter-and-Private divisions, or will they be kept together in one ranking?


I mentioned this in an email to Gabe. An issue that arose when I was tentatively evaluating the small schools is (to the best of my knowledge) unlike PACE, NAQT does not have a list for all of the qualified teams for HSNCT/SSNCT, but only the registered field with teams placed into their respective divisions. This means that if a top small school hasn't registered for or is not attending SSNCT at all, it is difficult to know: 1) What division they are in. and 2) Do they still qualify to compete?.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Progcon » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:50 pm

Antrobus63 wrote: The more coaches that vote--by open or secret ballot--the better the poll will be.


Yeah I agree that increasing the sample size increases the chances that the poll truly reflects tream strength. My issue, and I think you will find some truth in this based off what you have said, is how people are supposed to have knowledge about these teams enough to rank them. I was surprised to see that I got offered a ballot considering I don't know much at all about quizbowl results outside of Michigan. I chose not to do a ballot because, while I would have rated DCC first, I would not be able to justify their ranking beyond "I've read for them a bunch and they power a lot of questions and the B team did well last year at PACE." My argument for any other top 25 team would have been extremely superficial and would have lacked the actual knowledge that coaches of elite programs could provide. That said, I think the college football Coaches Poll shows us that coaches are not infallible either. In the future, how could I, an undergraduate with limited knowledge of quizbowl outside the Midwest, gain knowledge on teams outside of reading off bonus conversation stats on the database? Maybe it would be better to have like 6 regional polls for the United States that people less knowledgeable such as myself could contribute to. I don't want my ignorance creating a terrible ballot in which some deserving team gets unduly screwed over by me.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:40 pm

This means that if a top small school hasn't registered for or is not attending SSNCT at all, it is difficult to know: 1) What division they are in. and 2) Do they still qualify to compete?.


Ever since NAQT changed its guidelines on SSNCT admission, the term "small school" is in the eye of the beholder. My son's school is, by population, a traditional small school. Nor do we have selective admissions. However, NAQT agreed with some public school coaches who argued that charter schools should not be allowed to compete with public schools and so we're no longer eligible to do so. If we have 350 or fewer kids, grades 10-12, we are allowed to compete against private schools at SSNCT. Traditional public schools (and charters in New Orleans) with enrollment of 500 kids or less, grades 10-12, are allowed to compete together.

Soon, if LVA's per-grade enrollment goes up to the projected 120 students per high school grade, we will be banished from SSNCT altogether.

As I have made clear in earlier posts, I strongly disagree with this policy. Most HSAPQ people, from their comments, also don't agree with NAQT on this point, so Lehigh Valley Academy WOULD be a small school.

If there is a small school poll again, I believe that we should use a broad definition, based on school population. Shoot, I don't care if private schools are included, too--though I can't speak for my fellow charter school coaches. In any case, I'd be voting for Southside as #1, since they kicked our butt at Harvard and won the tournament.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby troyharris » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:15 pm

Peter,
Southside's huge performance at Harvard was a big factor in my polling as well. That was an incredible field and winning that tournament was a huge accomplishment.

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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby 1992 in spaceflight » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:17 pm

I think one thing that would take less time in general that could help is a breakdown of certain regions. I know I asked a lot of regional coordinators/players that I know about the teams in their circuit, so I think having certain players and TDs/coaches break down their regions/states would be very helpful for the panel (including me, because I completely forgot about Darien. Sorry about that!)
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Sit Room Guy » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:44 pm

Antrobus63 wrote:- Lastly, these threads tend to be dominated by college-and-older folk, so I like seeing current HS players, like Jakob, weigh in. He is a thoughtful guy, with a healthy sense of humor. I encourage more young people to put in their two cents. Having a players-only poll would be great.

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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Gonzague Truc » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:21 pm

The Two Hearts of Kwasi Boachi wrote:I think one thing that would take less time in general that could help is a breakdown of certain regions. I know I asked a lot of regional coordinators/players that I know about the teams in their circuit, so I think having certain players and TDs/coaches break down their regions/states would be very helpful for the panel (including me, because I completely forgot about Darien. Sorry about that!)


I would definitely be willing to talk about New England/the Northeast and/or participate in a player poll, if people would be interested in either of those things. Interestingly enough, we may have been the most divisive team in this poll, with two voters ranking us top 5 and two leaving us off entirely, which averaged out to 13th, which is IMO pretty fair. I don't think lack of information necessarily led to horribly skewed results in the poll, since there was still a geographic balance of voters.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby troyharris » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:50 pm

With the question of small school polls, even when playing in tournaments we don't ever really know who is small-school and who is not, so it is often hard to determine who is fighting for the same small school standing spots in any given tournament. Without knowing the exact numbers of a school's enrollment (a tricky proposition as well because the 10-12 statistics don't always match up with the actual reported school numbers on websites due to the fact that some schools are 10-12 and others are 9-12), is there anything or any place on the NAQT site that indicates "small school" for a particular school? I have never seen anything such as that, but don't know if I am missing it anywhere.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby troyharris » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:52 pm

Other than the previously mentioned comment about looking at previous SSNCT reports, and even that is not always accurate because schools' statuses change from year to year.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby jonah » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:29 pm

troyharris wrote:is there anything or any place on the NAQT site that indicates "small school" for a particular school? I have never seen anything such as that, but don't know if I am missing it anywhere.
Because researching small school statuses is very time-consuming, we generally don't research it until we have to (usually because a possibly-small school has attended a tournament).

You can see whether a team qualified as a small school on the results page for any qualifying tournament (for which we have results). Teams that are eligible but didn't qualify aren't shown publicly, but if they never qualified for nationals, are you likely to be mentioning them on your national poll ballot?


On another note, I wish to clarify that Lehigh Valley is eligible for the 2017 SSNCT (Charter and Private division), so using NAQT's definition for the SS poll would not exclude them. Peter has told us they do not plan to attend, but that has no bearing on their eligibility.
Antrobus63 wrote:Soon, if LVA's per-grade enrollment goes up to the projected 120 students per high school grade, we will be banished from SSNCT altogether.
Yes, if enough additional students enroll, the school will no longer be small. This is true of every small school.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby troyharris » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:38 pm

but if they never qualified for nationals, are you likely to be mentioning them on your national poll ballot?


True enough, and I figure as such that it would be impossibly time-consuming to try to put a designation for every school without having a need to do it.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby johnc » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:55 pm

Do I think St. Mark's should've been ranked higher? Yes.
Do I play for St. Mark's? Also yes.
Our bonus conversion has so far been among the best in Texas (comparable to Taylor's and St. John's's), and while I understand that this is supposed to be more holistic than a pure bonus conversion ranking, I feel like name recognition goes a really long way in this poll, especially considering there weren't any Texas coaches polled (although I don't hold this against you at all -- I know it's tough to find people willing to do this).
Still, honestly, I probably won't be content until we're #1, whether we deserve it or not.
Regardless, I appreciate your doing this poll -- it's fun to see where all the team's I've played stack up against the ones I haven't.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:01 pm

On another note, I wish to clarify that Lehigh Valley is eligible for the 2017 SSNCT (Charter and Private division), so using NAQT's definition for the SS poll would not exclude them. Peter has told us they do not plan to attend.


True, because we have no interest in spending thousands of dollars to play against a field denuded of traditional public schools, who make up the majority of the best small school teams.

Soon, if LVA's per-grade enrollment goes up to the projected 120 students per high school grade, we will be banished from SSNCT altogether.

Yes, if enough additional students enroll, the school will no longer be small. This is true of every small school.


Not true: 3 x 120 kids = 360 kids, which would put us over NAQT's new private/charter school 350-student enrollment limit. NAQT's rules allow traditional public small schools to have up to 500 kids in grades 10-12, but NAQT says that charters don't belong in that category. For the next two years, that's OK with us because we can compete against the big boys. However, once Alex leaves, LVA will struggle just to qualify for the national tournaments and will most likely never again be competitive at HSNCT and PACE. However, going to SSNCT would be a lovely annual goal for the kids who attend this truly small, non-competitive public school (check the details and numbers I posted a few months back, or come and visit the place), but they will no longer be allowed to do so--in either category--if the school hits its goal of 120 students per class.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby 2017 in amusement parks » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:04 pm

johnc wrote:Do I think St. Mark's should've been ranked higher? Yes.
Do I play for St. Mark's? Also yes.
Our bonus conversion has so far been among the best in Texas (comparable to Taylor's and St. John's's), and while I understand that this is supposed to be more holistic than a pure bonus conversion ranking, I feel like name recognition goes a really long way in this poll, especially considering there weren't any Texas coaches polled (although I don't hold this against you at all -- I know it's tough to find people willing to do this).
Still, honestly, I probably won't be content until we're #1, whether we deserve it or not.
Regardless, I appreciate your doing this poll -- it's fun to see where all the team's I've played stack up against the ones I haven't.


To be fair it's more likely that Taylor is significantly over-ranked. They're very good, but they're not a top 5 team. St. John's is also ranked ahead of teams with better ppbs than them. So it's not necessarily as much you, sorry.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby The Polebarn Hotel » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:32 pm

I would be interested in contributing to a player-run poll as well. I think that players, especially those on a forum like this, are very interested in stats and follow many regions at once just by perusing them each weekend. Maybe that's speaking from my own experience, but I know most of the top teams from each region and how they might stack up against one another. I wouldn't know deeper things, though, such as who does what category on each team or how deep their knowledge really is; that's where having regional specialists comes in.

What I'm trying to say is that I believe that players have a better insight than coaches do when it comes to rankings. A lot of the points brought up in this thread, such as name recognition of certain teams, are not as prevalent among us, and wouldn't influence these rankings as much. If someone is organizing something like that, definitely keep me in the loop.

As for our own ranking, I think it's pretty fair. It's interesting that Morlan has kept us so high in his own rankings, but I think that this poll pretty accurately reflects the teams that are better and worse than us, give or take a few.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby browen » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:37 am

I would like to say that my only issue with the poll results is that Canyon Crest got straight up shafted by good ole East Coast bias. And as no high schooler from further west than Texas has commented on the thread, it is unlikely to change with the player poll.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Couch's Kingbird » Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:16 am

I'll jump on the train of people interested in/willing to contribute to a player-run poll- it'll definitely be interesting to see how that would turn out, as opposed to these/the Morlan rankings. As for us, while I do think we're underranked, as Michael mentioned upthread we've only fielded a close-to-full-strength A team at one tournament (I don't think we've fielded a full strength one at any tourneys so far this year), so that's our problem.

browen wrote:I would like to say that my only issue with the poll results is that Canyon Crest got straight up shafted by good ole East Coast bias. And as no high schooler from further west than Texas has commented on the thread, it is unlikely to change with the player poll.


As a general thought, speaking from personal experience, I'm sure there are plenty of people who read these forums (regularly) without replying to the threads.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:43 am

browen wrote:I would like to say that my only issue with the poll results is that Canyon Crest got straight up shafted by good ole East Coast bias. And as no high schooler from further west than Texas has commented on the thread, it is unlikely to change with the player poll.


Not in my case. I was very curious about Canyon Crest (after the high finish at PACE), as well as the other California teams, but the Torrey Pines event is their only fall 2016 tournament posted on NAQT:

1 Westview A 11-1 0.917 5610 240 102 53 36 24.06 467.5
2 Arcadia A 9-3 0.750 4130 240 60 67 22 21.02 344.2
3 Rancho Bernardo A 6-4 0.600 3500 200 59 48 29 21.31 350.0
4 Canyon Crest A 6-4 0.600 3580 200 68 37 34 22.48 358.0

My ranking was based on this since I saw no other stats. I saw that CC was involved in the Bronco Bowl II but no stats were published on hsquizbowl.org.

However, after seeing this comment, I dug a little deeper and did a web search for the Bronco Bowl... which turned up a much more prestigious finish:

1. Canyon Crest A 9 – 1 24.78
2. Westview A 10 – 1 27.14
T – 3 La Jolla A 8 – 2 24.71
T – 3 Arcadia A 6 – 3 22.35

So live and learn. Perhaps some coaches knew about this result and others didn't. In retrospect, maybe that happened a lot more than I realized, and other instances of perceived regional bias were simply due to ignorance.

Maybe I'm just late to the party on this... but has there ever been an attempt by previous poll-meisters to gather together all major non-NAQT event results in one place for the voters' perusal? I know that Gabe did alert me to some numbers that I didn't know about, but I can't expect him to know everything. Anyway, just wondering.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby browen » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:39 am

Antrobus63 wrote:
Maybe I'm just late to the party on this... but has there ever been an attempt by previous poll-meisters to gather together all major non-NAQT event results in one place for the voters' perusal? I know that Gabe did alert me to some numbers that I didn't know about, but I can't expect him to know everything. Anyway, just wondering.


I used http://hdwhite.org/qb/stats/. If there is a tournament that publishes stats they are almost always compiled there the Tuesday after the tournament. Neg5 rarely gets added buy you they have their own search function.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby AKKOLADE » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:12 am

What's the purpose of a player's poll when only 8 people responded to this (mostly?) open poll?
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Granny Soberer » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:38 am

Antrobus63 wrote:Maybe I'm just late to the party on this... but has there ever been an attempt by previous poll-meisters to gather together all major non-NAQT event results in one place for the voters' perusal? I know that Gabe did alert me to some numbers that I didn't know about, but I can't expect him to know everything. Anyway, just wondering.

http://hdwhite.org/qb/stats/
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:03 am

Hey, Ryan, thanks! I figured there was some way to do this.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Sit Room Guy » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:27 am

AKKOLADE wrote:What's the purpose of a player's poll when only 8 people responded to this (mostly?) open poll?

We got at least a dozen people to respond to our Illinois players' poll. And that was just Illinois.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby stitz » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:45 am

I would definitely take part in a player poll. I kill a lot of time at school looking at stats on NAQTs site and hsquizbowl. Doing something constructive with it would be nice.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby AKKOLADE » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:42 pm

How many of them responded to the national poll?
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Sit Room Guy » Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:27 pm

AKKOLADE wrote:How many of them responded to the national poll?

As HS players could not submit to this poll, none.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby bretthogan43 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:06 pm

I would be interested in a players' poll as well.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:38 pm

AKKOLADE wrote:What's the purpose of a player's poll when only 8 people responded to this (mostly?) open poll?


Right now, the coach-only poll is obviously imperfect. Does that mean we should try to scrap it or improve it? I think that we should keep pushing to see if we can make it better.

A players-only poll would be great. The students compete against each other at regionals and nationals and have a pretty good idea about the real competitive strengths and weaknesses of their opponents--and themselves. Even with cross-regional comparisons, I would trust the students, as a collective, more than the coaches: kids probably pore through tournament results more exhaustively than coaches do—we tend to have jobs, families, etc. Sure, students could fall into the same traps that adults do, but the process of pulling the poll together and debating the criteria would, in itself, be a large part of the poll’s value.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby AKKOLADE » Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:05 pm

JakobeanEra wrote:
AKKOLADE wrote:How many of them responded to the national poll?

As HS players could not submit to this poll, none.

Reading's overrated.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby rahulkeyal » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:11 pm

browen wrote:I would like to say that my only issue with the poll results is that Canyon Crest got straight up shafted by good ole East Coast bias. And as no high schooler from further west than Texas has commented on the thread, it is unlikely to change with the player poll.


I guess I can offer my opinion on the rankings for the SoCal teams in this thread. It's important to note that, due to scheduling shenanigans, Southern California has only had 3 regular HS tournaments thus far, so it's a little harder for me, and the poll participants I'd imagine, to make definitive statements on the strength of the teams. That being said...

Westview - I generally agree with where we were ranked in the poll. It's pretty hard to compare us with a lot of the top teams in the country since Southern California (and the West Coast in general) is so isolated from the rest of the country. One thing that I'm not sure many people know about our team is that our 14th place finish at PACE last year was without our History / CE player Chaitanya, who will attend nationals with us this year. We've done pretty well at the two tournaments we've attended as a full team, including getting (to my knowledge) the highest PPB nationally on WHAQ (27.14), slightly higher than DCC's 26.96 and Hunter's 26.63. Of course, one stat doesn't say too much, but I think it gives a general idea of our ability.

Canyon Crest - Like us, Canyon Crest only attended TPAIN and Bronco Bowl at full strength. They definitely underperformed at the former, but I expect their Bronco Bowl performance to be pretty indicative of future results. I found it pretty hilarious that they received 7th, 8th, and 10th in three of their rankings, but weren't ranked in the top 25 by 4 (!) ballots. I would place them in the 15 to 20 range rather than the top 10, but they ended up there anyways because of the 4 ballots.

Torrey Pines - I'm not sure how Torrey Pines ended up third among SoCal teams in the poll. Their only performance with a full A-team was ACE, where we still managed to beat them and take first (the final standings are wrong on NAQT''s website) despite missing two of our A-team members, including me. So far, they don't seem like a top 25 team to me, especially because they lost most of their A-team of last year. Again, hard to say where they stand since they've only attended one tournament, but I was really surprised to see one of the ballots rank them at 12th and rank them above us.

La Jolla - La Jolla has underperformed at HSNCT the past two years compared to their performances at tournaments throughout the season, so I wasn't surprised to not see them on Morlan's pre-season HSQB ranking (huge shout out to all the great work you do!) and the Preseason Poll. However, I think La Jolla is pretty definitively SoCal's third best team after us and CCA. Like CCA, they underperformed at TPAIN, but should have results more similar to their T-3 at Bronco Bowl, where they got a PPB almost identical to CCA's. I would likely put them somewhere between 20 and 25 as of now.

Arcadia - If there's any team that's in contention for third with La Jolla, it's Arcadia. I'm not sure why they didn't receive a single vote in the poll despite getting 2nd place at TPAIN, where they also had a close 310 - 325 win against us. I'd also like to mention that they split their A team at Bronco Bowl, so those results don't accurately reflect their strength. I don't see them in the top 25 yet, but I definitely think they could beat some of the unranked teams that did received votes.

As people have mentioned above, HDWhite is useful for searching stats. Hopefully, all pollers will use it in the future.

And of course, thanks to all those who ran and voted in the poll!
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby troyharris » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:23 pm

Arcadia was definitely one of the teams not in the previous poll that stood out when I was looking at that region. The toughest thing that I found was trying to limit such an incredibly broad geographic area (U.S. and Canada) to 25, when so many of the p/b statistics are so incredibly similar across the board.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby rahulkeyal » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:14 pm

troyharris wrote:Arcadia was definitely one of the teams not in the previous poll that stood out when I was looking at that region. The toughest thing that I found was trying to limit such an incredibly broad geographic area (U.S. and Canada) to 25, when so many of the p/b statistics are so incredibly similar across the board.


Yeah, that makes sense. It's good to know that pollers still took a comprehensive look at regions that weren't as well represented / less known about, such as Southern California. At the same time, however, I feel like the effect of being a region being under-represented reflects most not in the top 10 or so spots, which are generally consistent across ballots, but more in those lower spots where teams like La Jolla or Arcadia might have been placed had the pollers been better acquainted with certain region. Of course, it's not realistic for pollers to do research on every team in the US and then create a list of just 25 teams, as you said yourself.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:49 pm

I'm not sure how Torrey Pines ended up third among SoCal teams in the poll. Their only performance with a full A-team was ACE, where we still managed to beat them and take first (the final standings are wrong on NAQT''s website)


This is what I saw on the NAQT website for Arcadia Carnal Embrace X--and what I based my vote on:

1 Torrey Pines A 8-1 0.889 4070 180 64 54 28 22.97 452.2
2 Westview 6-3 0.667 3180 180 43 54 39 22.58 353.3

Were the numbers transposed? There's no way anyone looking in from out of state could know that. Sorry, man.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby rahulkeyal » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:31 pm

The stats weren't transposed. As I mentioned in my post, we were missing two of our A-team members at ACE (Shivank Nayak and myself). Regardless, our team still went undefeated in the playoffs, so we got first at the tournament.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Important Bird Area » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:52 pm

rahulkeyal wrote:the final standings are wrong on NAQT''s website


For the record, the listed standings on our website are what we used to compute HSNCT invitations. Local tournament directors are, of course, free to use different schemes for their own rankings (and dispense trophies/awards accordingly).
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Antrobus63 » Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:39 pm

So, NAQT's stats weren't wrong, then. I see what you're saying, Westview, but it's pretty hard for voters to know who's on the A team and who's not. If you list as your "A" team or even just "Westview," then outside voters are probably going to go take those result as legit. If you're missing two A team-ers, you could always list as a B team.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby deserto » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:35 pm

The Two Hearts of Kwasi Boachi wrote:I think having certain players and TDs/coaches break down their regions/states would be very helpful for the panel.


I appreciate the good suggestion. In advance of future polls I'll solicit regional updates from knowledgeable folks, then compile them for prospective voters. Access to such info promises to make it easier for voters to contextualize results from tournaments held outside their circuit.

The Baking of the English Working Class wrote:I would be interested in contributing to a player-run poll as well. I think that players, especially those on a forum like this, are very interested in stats and follow many regions at once just by perusing them each weekend. ... If someone is organizing something like that, definitely keep me in the loop.


Given the interest expressed in a players' poll, I think it would be a worthwhile endeavor. I'll plan to organize one in tandem with the pre-nats coaches' poll. You are already on my email list if, in this thread, you registered a desire to participate in the poll. (Let me know if you'd prefer me to contact you at a different address than the one associated with your forum account.) Others interested in voting in the players' poll are welcome to PM or email me.

rahulkeyal wrote:I feel like the effect of being a region being under-represented reflects most not in the top 10 or so spots, which are generally consistent across ballots, but more in those lower spots where teams like La Jolla or Arcadia might have been placed had the pollers been better acquainted with certain region.


You make a sound point, that it can be harder for voters to properly distinguish between marginal top-25 teams, such as La Jolla and Arcadia. I'm hopeful that the introduction of Harry White's searchable tournament database (thanks, Brian + Ryan + Harry!), coupled with expanded regional commentary from coaches and players, will enable voters to make more informed bottom-ballot choices. Fred's rankings have great utility here, as his quantitative approach spares them from being influenced by regional biases / knowledge gaps.
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Re: Midseason Poll

Postby Scottietodd » Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:21 pm

To echo some thoughts, this was pretty hard to do, and looking at the results, I definitely missed a few. I obviously overlooked some data and certainly wasn't out to offend anyone, so I'm not going to stress about it. Life's too short. I think some type of method for dropping outliers is a great idea so that a big miss,like I had with Chattahoochee and Napierville for instance, wouldn't knock them down. Obviously, it would be great to have a lot more than 8 so that regional biases, etc.. would balance out.
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